Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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983
FXUS63 KFGF 261755
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Main snow band has now shifted from roughly Lisbon to just west of
Fargo, up through Grand Forks, and into northwestern Minnesota.
Accumulations thus far have been about as expected with the
highest amounts in far southeastern North Dakota (west of Wahpeton
who saw more mixing than snow). Eastern Cass County
(Fargo/Moorhead) and into Clay, Wilkin, and Otter Tail has been in
the dry slot for much of the morning so didn`t receive as much
for precipitation accumulations. However, impacts are still
ongoing with slick roads in place due to the snow and ice they
did get and temperatures not warming up much (still stuck around
the freezing mark or just below). Therefore, will hold on to the
current headlines for a bit longer in these areas even though most
of the precipitation has ended.

As the main area of precip continues to impact most areas of far
eastern North Dakota and up into northwest Minnesota this
afternoon, still expecting an additional 1-2 inches of snow
accumulation. Timing still looks good for precip to begin exiting
the ND side early this evening and out of northwest MN later
tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 930 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

One main challenge this morning is assessing dry slot over eastern
zones versus radar overshooting a thinner cloud deck, which seems
more likely as Park Rapids through Waskish are all reporting snow
and Elbow Lake has just transitioned from drizzle to snow. Did
reduce POPs over the region but kept high chances in rather than
likelies. Sfc temps still at or just below freezing so mentions of
FZRA still in the grids although may need to adjust Max Wetbulb
aloft to generate more snow in wx grids if current trends
continue. Highest amounts/greatest impacts continue to be along
an axis from Hillsboro to Lisbon...and west as the def zone gently
shifts east-to-west. No significant changes to grids other than
aforementioned POP grids in the far east.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Radar trends and hourly models indicating the best potential for
accumulating snows to be in southeastern ND, 4 to 6 inches
expected, with the Fargo area and northeast to Bemidji expecting 2
to 4 inches. Placement of the band in agreement with current
forecast. Dry slot lifting into west central minnesota will end
or limit accumulating sleet or snow. May see drizzle in this
area as pavement surface warms during the day with impacts
reduced. Will need to monitor radar trends for the northward
extent/impact of the dry slot.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Challenge for today will be placement and amount of def zone
snowfall. Mixed precip will continue to switch over this morning
as warm temps aloft fall below freezing which occurred early this
morning at BJI. -FZRA at Fargo with all snow reported in SE ND at
Milnor early this morning so only a matter of time for the rest
of the def zone column to cool...HRRR temps indicate should be all
snow by 12Z. Went ahead and added OT and Wadena counties for
accumulating mix of freezing rain and ice this morning.

There is high confidence in the placement of the snow band as the
slowly moving 500mb low moves over SE ND today. Expecting the snow
band to linger this morning across SE ND into the Bemidji area. Model
QPF between a quarter and a half inch would lend to 3 to 6 inches
of snow under this band with higher amounts possible if snow
ratios can be higher. A question always in late season snow events
is how snow and ice accumulate on road surfaces vs grassy areas.
Will need to monitor trends under the highest reflectivities to
see how the forecast can be improved/updated.

The band will lift to the north this afternoon and into NW MN
this evening with snow light snow expected with 1 to 3 inches
expected from Grand Forks to Baudette. Some lingering snow is
possible Thursday across NW MN with temps holding into the 30s
east of the valley and 40s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Upper low impacts will move out leading to a milder and dry
Friday with sunshine. This weekend will see temperatures back to
around late April normals with the next chance for precipitation
arriving into parts of west central into north central MN Sunday
night into Monday. This region will be on the northwest edge of a
precipitation shield from a large upper level system which will
move through the western Great Lakes. The 00z ECMWF maintains a
much stronger and farther west soln and also a bit colder with
snow potential once again over much of north central MN. From the
west look for rain chances to increase on Tuesday as a 500 mb
trough moves in once the upper low over the western Great Lakes
departs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

MVFR conditions with some isolated pockets of IFR ceilings to
continue throughout the period. As of issuance time, the main snow
band has shifted just west of KFAR but continues to impact KGFK,
KTVF, and KBJI. Visibilities could drop to 1SM or less in the
heaviest bursts but should mainly be in the 3-5SM range in
-SN. Precipitation will begin to move out of the area by this
evening from west to east but MVFR ceilings will remain. North
winds of 20-25 kts will continue throughout the afternoon before
dropping more into the 10-15 kt range this evening and overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038-
     039-049-052-053.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-
     003-009-015>017-022>024-027>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Lee



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