Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240021
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
621 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Went ahead and added the mention of flurries and patchy freezing
drizzle across the northern valley into northwest Minnesota for
the rest of the evening. Enough lift ahead of weak warm front to
cause this light precipitation. Not expecting an impact to roads
or travel this evening. Clouds will keep lows up overnight once
again with minimums in the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Stratus coverage overnight and any fog developing overnight will
be the main issue for the period.

Stratus continues to hang on across the Red River Valley, although
some clearing has been going on in west central portions of our
counties and continues in the east. There is more stratus coming
in from the northwest behind the surface trough, so think overall
we will be fairly cloudy overnight. High 925-850mb relative
humidity levels move eastward, so eventually think the stratus
will ooze back to the east and northwestern MN counties again
will be cloudy. Most of the short range models have any fog
formation on the western edge of the stratus, which should remain
to our west overnight. Kept any fog mention out for now. The
clouds should keep us mild overnight and kept lows in the teens.

Northwest flow with several weak shortwaves moving through. One
such shortwave has been helping to produce some flurries across
portions of the CWA, and another shortwave will approach from
Canada late tonight/tomorrow morning. Think the best chances for
any measurable snow will be in the far northeastern counties, with
flurries elsewhere. Anything will be extremely light and low
impact. Think there will be at least some breaks in the clouds
later tomorrow, so have highs in the 20s to approaching 30 degrees
in the southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Models continue showing general agreement through the extended
period and will keep a blended soln for this forecast package...with
the main focus on a generally progressive weather pattern through
the period.

For Wednesday night through Friday...look for the upper level ridge
to shift east over the forecast area. Return flow as the surface
high retreats into the lower Ohio valley will allow for a slow
warming trend...with most areas reaching the freezing mark or better
on Thursday and Friday ahead of the next system.

For Friday night...a surface low pressure system is forecast to
cross the region. Moisture is limited with the system...but some
light precipitation can be expected. Behind the low...cooler
temperatures will prevail for a day or so...but overall trend is to
stay near seasonal norms. Temps will rebound again for the end of
the period...with temps remaining near or slightly above normal.
Little precipitation is forecast for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Stratus deck expected to move back over BJI this evening with CIGs
MVFR or IFR for all taf sites through the overnight into
Wednesday. Fog development also possible at DVL. Some improvement
expected with a gradual lifting of CIGs during the day and
possibly SCT CIGs working in from the west late in the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...JK


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