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000
FXUS63 KFGF 201124
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
624 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST
RETURN FLOW. THERMAL RIDGE WILL CROSS FA THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF NEXT SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL BE
TRACKING ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SOLAR
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES BUMP UP QUITE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
AS SYSTEM A FEW DAYS AGO. SURFACE LOW NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES ARE AROUND .70 INCHES VS NEARLY AN INCH
WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED .10-.20 QPF. WITH LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT NORTH OF THE BORDER FEEL ANY PCPN
WILL BE PRETTY SPOTTY AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW. WITH BOUNDARY
PASSAGE COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER AFTER
WARM DAY NOT SURE HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SO WILL STICK
PRETTY CLOSE TO CURRENT VALUES.

MONDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH COLDER COLUMN AND CLOUD COVER. SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE IN WRAP AROUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP
BLO FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND MIXING AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED COULD SEE SOME
PCPN WORKING INTO THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING
THIS PERIOD BUT DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT AND HELP ANY
PCPN TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500MB
CUTOFF LOW TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF
PRECIP. HOW THE 500MB CUTOFF EVOLVES HAS BEEN MUCH LESS CONSISTENT
BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN HAS BEEN WELL PROGGED. THE FIRST ROUND OF
PCPN ENTERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850-700MB WAA UNDERNEATH 500MB
DIVERGENCE THAT SHOULD BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NW MN. THURSDAY 500MB COLD CORE CAUSES UP TO
400J/KG OF CAPE IN THE 00Z ECMWF ACROSS E ND. AS THE NORTH WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE ADVECT IN A SUBFREEZING BLYR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO MIX INTO THE PCPN FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NE ND AND INTO
NW MN. NEAR NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS WED AND THURS WITH BELOW LATE APRIL
NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SOME ISOLD FOG IN THE BJI AREA OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY SHRA WILL MOVE INTO PARTS
OF THE REGION TONIGHT HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER