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000
FXUS63 KFGF 260258
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
958 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

No significant forecast updates are needed this late evening. A
few cu/stratocu still evident across the far southern RRV and
southeast of the Red Lakes... otherwise skies are steadily
clearing as H5 ridging and corresponding subsident drying build in
aloft. Winds will continue to diminish as surface high pressure
now centered over the Turtle Mountains settles over the area.

UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Northwest flow pattern evident in cu/stratocu cloud field moving
across the FA. The isolated thunderstorm in the far southern Red
River Valley should be out of the FA shortly and remaining showers
and sprinkles should be dissipating over the next hour or two. No
significant forecast updates needed this early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

One short wave that moved from NW to south central ND is now into
NE SD. Just northeast of this system enough heating and forcing
from it to generate scattered showers and maybe yet a t-storm in
areas nr Jamestown to Fargo south. Otherwise scattered showers
over Lake of the Woods region as Upper level system is moving
southeast toward Baudette at 21z. In between DVL/GFK/PKD not as
much forcing but enough heating for the daytime CU and for spotty
showers. The activity is mostly sun driven and will diminish this
evening..leaving for a dry overnight with skies clearing. Clear
sky overnight and lights will allow temps to drop into the low-mid
40s all areas. Could be some patchy fog, but rainfall has been
pretty spotty and airmass is quite dry. Monday will see a few CU
with daytime heating, esp east of the Red River where convective
temps are the lowest. Otherwise light winds, and temps much closer
to average.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

A departing sfc ridge with an upper ridge sliding into the
Dakotas will keep Monday night and Tuesday dry with breezy
southerly winds helping knock the afternoon highs back up into the
70s and 80s after a long cool spell. A sfc low east of the
northern Rockies then slides into the northern tier to bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Tue night into Wed
evening...with a chance of overnight severe storms Tue night as
sfc low pressure moves somewhere through the area...but models in
general agreement the lower pressures will move into the valley
late Tue night...with some disagreement on the latitude of the
center of the low. An upper low then swings across srn Canada and
into the northern tier Thu in to Fri...as depicted by the
ECMWF...while the GFS is a bit weaker. Blended solution therefore
giving some sct activity across the area both Thu aftn and Friday
before a dry Saturday. Overall daytime highs should be in the 70s
after the warm Tuesday...and the mid week low pressure system
passes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Expect scattered to broken VFR ceilings with isolated showers
and gusty northwest blayer flow through 02z. After 02z expect fair
skies and winds steadily diminishing as surface high pressure
settles in over the area. Fair skies and a light northwesterly
flow should continue into Monday... with few-sct VFR clouds
developing by midday.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Gust