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000
FXUS63 KFGF 261742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SPOTTY SHOWERS JUST WORKING INTO THE FAR NW FA ATTM. NIL
INSTABILITY/CAPE AT THIS POINT SO STUCK WITH SHOWERS. BASED ON
CURRENT TIMING ADJUSTED POPS DELAYING ARRIVAL IN EASTERN AREAS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG
MENTION. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW ALL OF THE FOG HAS BEEN STAYING
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S AND SHOULD START RISING SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

A VERY WRAPPED UP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 70S IN
OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHILE THE SOUTH WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE
80S. ALL THE MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS GOING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSEST
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST...SO THINK THAT THUNDER WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING WIND SPEEDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA UP TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT ALL DO HOWEVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER
GUIDANCE IS BORDERLINE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING UP TO
850MB...BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE AROUND 35 KTS
AT MOST. THINK THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY...PARTICULARLY NEAR SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ASSIST MIXING. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO EASTERN MN AND WI...WITH
THE SFC LOW OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
MAINTAINING OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT SPINS
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SET IN FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN
OUR EAST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE 70 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH RATHER LIGHT
WINDS. THERMAL FIELDS VERY GRADUALLY WARM...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MADE IT INTO KDVL AND SHOULD GET INTO KGFK/KTVF
SHORTLY. KFAR/KBJI WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BUT THEY WILL ALSO GET
INTO THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO ANY OF THE AIRPORTS SO STUCK WITH THE VCSH MENTION. IF RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD OR IMMINENT WILL UPDATE TO
PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN. OTHER STORY IS WIND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS MAY ALSO DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
GENERALLY STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON