Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 270441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1041 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Plenty of convection fired again this afternoon as higher amounts
of moisture remain in the atmosphere while daytime heating helped
destabilize the atmosphere. Most convection is hugging the higher
terrain though some showers and storms will drift into valleys as
the day progresses. Some heavy rainers are expected along with
some gusty winds of 40 to maybe 50 mph at times. Temperatures will
remain hot.

By Wednesday, high pressure will shift westward and get
centered over the Great Basin. This will cause a downtick in
precipitable water and convection as subsidence sets up overhead
and flow becomes more west to northwest. Any convection that does
form will be less intense and have much less coverage than seen
lately. Temperatures will still run hot.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

The center of high pressure will meander across the desert
southwest through Sunday and looks to keep convection to a
minimum. A few showers and storms will fire each afternoon but
coverage looks to be isolated at best favoring the San Juans.

On Friday, a trough will move across the eastern half of the
nation and break down a strong area of high pressure off the
Florida coast. This breakdown will allow our high pressure to
start shifting east causing a return to southerly flow which will
draw in moisture to the region. Some spotty precipitation will
start Saturday into Sunday with more widespread convection
expected Monday onwards as monsoonal moisture returns.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1041 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

VFR conditions will prevail overnight and over the next 24 hours
at all TAF sites as a drier airmass moves over the region due to
high pressure building over the west. Mostly sunny skies will
prevail throughout the period with occasional breezy conditions
Wednesday afternoon.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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