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000
FXUS65 KGJT 192151
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
351 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A DRY
COOL MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WINDS MAY BE SLOW TO
DECOUPLE WITH SOME GUSTINESS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE TONIGHT. ONLY A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING WILL BE SEEN BY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DRY GENERAL PATTERN. HOWEVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A NOTCH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT
THEY WILL STILL REACH A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW...BUT
IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY`S. THEREFORE THE FLOW
ALOFT IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG. BUT THE
CONTINUED MODERATE-TO-STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
THE DEEP MIXED LAYER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL PERSIST. WINDS SHOULD DIE OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY
EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKY MTNS AND A RIDGE SET UP OVER THE MIDWEST. FRIDAY SHOULD
STILL FEATURE HIGH WINDS THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LESS AREAL COVERAGE
IN GUSTY WINDS.

WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE DEGREES AND
GUSTY WINDS FROM VIRGA IN NORTHEASTERN UTAH ALONG THE FRONT AXIS.
WITH SUCH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER...NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

REMAINING ON THE BACKSIDE OF RIDGE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
DAYTIME HEATING CREATES GUSTY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WINDS. THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO LET UP MONDAY EVENING AS GRADIENT
RELEASES AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES
MONDAY AS A WEAK DISSIPATING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR POTENTIAL OF DRY LIGHTNING ILLUMINATING
AN ALREADY SMOKEY REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS UNTIL AROUND 04Z. STRONG GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THEREFORE EXPECT SOME TURBULENCE DURING LANDING AND
TAKEOFF...AND ALSO NEAR AND OVER PEAKS AND RIDGES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL AGAIN INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

NO CHANGE TO THE RED FLAG WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY. NIGHTTIME HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR. FIRE WEATHER WATCH OUT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CO AND
NORTHEASTERN UTAH ON FRIDAY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
MORE WEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST DIRECTION BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS.

THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEARS SLOW TO
CHANGE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPING CRITICAL CONDITIONS LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...HUMIDITY VERY DRY...AND WINDS OFTEN
STRONG WILL KEEP FUELS DRYING AT A RAPID PACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WARM AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH
LESS WIND AS SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ200-202-203-207-
     290>293.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ200-202-203-290>293.

UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ482>484-486-487.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ484-486-487.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...JAM