Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 012124
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
324 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 323 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Weak area of circulation over the Four Corners this evening will
continue to pump moisture and energy into the southwest Colorado
valleys, especially La Plata and Archuleta counties. Precipitation
will gradually move eastward as the main plume of moisture gets
carried toward the Continental Divide by Saturday morning.

Deep monsoonal moisture will remain over the region Saturday as
the associated positive tilted trough continues to make its way
across Utah and Colorado. Showers and thunderstorms will be on and
off through Saturday night due to this set up. Precipitable water
values will remain near or above one inch for the next 36 hours.
The general flow will change from southerly to northwesterly on
Saturday as the trough passes through which will change the areas
which receive enhanced rainfall and allow drier air to filter in.
Decided to hold off on issuing a flash flood watch for Saturday
but future shifts will take a second glance tonight to see if we
need one. If so, the threat would be further north on Saturday in
east central Utah and/or west central Colorado. RH fields indicate
some possible clearing across eastern Utah by late afternoon
Saturday, but overall low lapse rates will be an issue. Forecast
soundings do indicate slower storm motion as the trough passes and
winds change direction so something else to consider.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

On Sunday, high pressure will attempt a return. Forecast models
indicate an embedded disturbance pushing through on Sunday, and
decent lapse rates for enhanced activity in the afternoon.
Conditions look similar on Monday, so chances are that conditions
won`t completely dry out across the region though activity will
lower during this time.

A closed low dipping into Washington State on Wednesday will
strengthen high pressure and shift the center of circulation
eastward. This would open the monsoonal tap back up for a quick
round of wet weather midweek toward the end of the work week.

Models diverge by next weekend but at this time look to dry out
except for the usual afternoon convection over higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 323 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue over
eastern Utah and western Colorado through the next 18 to 24
hours. Most storms will produce light to moderate rainfall, but a
number will produce excessive rain. As a result, airports across
the region can expect brief periods of MVFR CIGS and VSBY and/or
CIGS below ILS breakpoints throughout the day and through the
night. Mountain obscurations will be common. This trend will
continue through Saturday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Releases from area reservoirs and management of water diversions
will likely add to flow in some rivers and streams. As a result,
waterways across the area will continue to run high, fast, and
cold through the coming weekend. Stay advised of the latest river
forecasts by visiting our website at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ017>023.

UT...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT


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