Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 010916
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
316 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE
EXITING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BRIEF SUBSIDENT PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH MORNING SUN...QUICKLY BEING
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOCUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS STORMS FIRST DEVELOP...WITH
ACTIVITY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE VALLEYS BY MID AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED A BUT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING DOWN TO EIGHT TENTHS OF AN INCH. THIS
WILL REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN JUST A BIT...BUT WITH SOILS
SATURATED IN MANY AREAS IT WON`T TAKE AS MUCH TO TRIGGER MUD OR
DEBRIS FLOWS. FFG VALUES STILL AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR ACROSS MOST
OF OUR CWA. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...EXPECT A BUMP IN
TEMPS...OR CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRYING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS TO 0.5 TO
0.6 INCH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING TO A MORE COMFORTABLE 35F T0
45F. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL AROUND 0.9 OVER THE FAR SOUTH.
DAYTIME HEAT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE MTNS
FROM THE WEST ELKS/SAWATCH DOWN ACROSS THE SAN JUANS. MAX TEMPS
LIKELY TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WITH THE DRIER AIR AND MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER MONSOONAL
SURGE OF MOISTURE...

ANOTHER NORTHWARD SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED INTO SE UT
LATER SAT NIGHT AND THEN UP ALONG THE UT/CO BORDER ON SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.40 INCH IN SE UT ARE SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS.
THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WHILE AN
EASTERLY WAVE ROTATES UP INTO SRN CA/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY LATE
SUNDAY. THIS A BIT REMINISCENT OF WHAT OCCURRED EARLY THIS WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON SATURDAY.

STRONG EASTERLY WAVE WORKS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SURGE
OF DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS
THIS STRONGER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ON THE RISE AND WILL BE SOMETHING
WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE
CONTINUED INCREASING POPS AND QPF VALUES TO BETTER MATCH EXPECTED
CONDITIONS AND TO ALIGN WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE. MOISTURE SLOWLY
ERODES AS WE WORK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING A BIT EACH DAY AND BECOMING MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF AS THE DEEP
PLUME MOVES OVER...BEFORE REBOUNDING LATER IN THE WEEK AS WE DRY
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WILL BE DISSIPATING BY 15Z THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
BE EXPECTED. STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD/JDC
AVIATION...JDC



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