Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 252201
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
301 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE REX BLOCK OVER
THE WEST COAST REMAINED IN PLACE. AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR HAS
CAUSED LOW STRATUS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY. MOST STRIKING WILL BE THE UNUSUAL
WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A NUMBER OF VALLEY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE IN
THE GUNNISON BASIN...A STRONG INVERSION WILL PREVENT THEM FROM
ENJOYING THESE MILD WINTER TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BE
REINTRODUCED TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW AT
THE BASE OF THE REX BLOCK. MODELS SHOW SOME SPREAD ON ARRIVAL TIME
OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH...BUT FAVORED SLOWER ECMWF/GFS AS
MODELS LIKELY TOO QUICK TO MOVE THE BLOCKING PATTERN PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE WEST BREAKS DOWN BUT RETURNS LATE
IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THE BAJA LOW PORTION OF THE BLOCK OPENS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THEN PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH THE NAM
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RISING TO 6 G/KG OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS. SOME
WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURS BUT THE COLD CORE ARCS AROUND THIS
FORECAST AREA. SO SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
AND SPREAD NE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 700MB TEMPS INITIALLY
AROUND 0C DROP TO -4C OVERNIGHT LOWERING SNOW LEVELS FROM 9KFT TO
AROUND 7KFT. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN
INCHES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH HIGH PRESSURE
REBOUNDS OVER THE WEST. FRIDAY THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS TO
THE NORTHERN BAJA AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE LAS VEGAS-YUMA AREA.
THIS BRINGS MOIST AND MILDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

BY NEXT SUNDAY THE LOW SINKS DOWN THE BAJA ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL IN THE GUNNISON BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 20Z ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS FOR KASE.
AROUND THIS TIME EXPECT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MIXES
IN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL



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