Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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660
FXUS65 KGJT 060500
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1000 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUPPORT A LOW
STRATUS DECK HOLDING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MODEL. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN UINTA BASIN...EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE CHANGE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
HOLDS...STRATUS DECKS SLOW TO BURN OFF AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BACK THROUGH UNDER THE NORTHWEST COMPONENT. STILL EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...OTHERWISE THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A FEW WEAK RIPPLES SLIDING
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACTING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY NEXT WEEKEND AND JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
IDEA AND IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. KVEL AND KCNY HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
KGJT...KEGE...AND KASE WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BRIEF DROPS IN
CIGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 16Z AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
PERIOD. MET GUIDANCE ALREADY SUGGESTING FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
00Z AT KVEL...KCNY AND KGJT SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGJT



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