376
FXUS64 KAMA 291135
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
635 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Cloud cover is not panning out as model guidance had originally
depicted so far this morning. Have decreased cloud cover through
the morning hours. The KAMA 29/12z sounding also depicts a lot
more drier air than model guidance continues to suggest, so am not
anticipating any cloud cover to move in or develop any time soon.
Afternoon high temperatures have also been adjusted up a few
degrees with room to go even higher if cloud cover does hold off
into the afternoon hours.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The daily chances for showers and thunderstorms looks to continue
both today and tomorrow for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Both days have the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms,
with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary hazards. High
temperatures should remain below average both today and tomorrow.

Rain showers and thunderstorms continue south of the forecast area
this morning. The chance for additional development appears low
this morning, but cannot completely rule out a few showers or
storms. Otherwise, low clouds will move in near sunrise.

The aforementioned cloud cover may remain across portions of the
area through most of the day today. This will inhibit surface
heating today and highs are forecast to only warm up into the 70s
for most areas. Given the lack of heating, showers and storms are
unlikely to form during the daytime hours. A few CAMs still hint
at this potential, so have kept in some low PoPs during the late
afternoon into early evening hours. The best chance at seeing
precipitation today will likely wait until the evening hours at
the earliest as a shortwave trough moves across the Southern High
Plains. Showers and storms could linger through the night as a
potential line of storms moves across portions of the area. Model
guidance does hint at elevated instability so storms could be
strong to severe, with the primary threat being large hail
initially but would likely become a wind threat if a line of
storms does form. Model guidance varies on the coverage and
intensity of any potential storms, so refinements are likely later
on today.

Showers and storms may continue into Thursday morning from
convection the night before. If convection remains across the area
well into the morning hours or potentially into the afternoon,
that could limit shower and storm coverage on Thursday. There is
another disturbance in the flow that should be enough to kick off
another round of storms during the afternoon into the evening.
These storms will once again have the potential to become severe
with large hail and damaging winds continuing to be the primary
hazards. PWAT values up around an inch or greater will also lead
to heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding.
Thursday has higher confidence in severe storms than there is
today, but there are still some failure modes that will need to be
monitored. Slightly stronger WAA combined with some clearing
cloud cover on Thursday across the west should allow for
temperatures to warm up into the 80s for highs during the
afternoon hours before any thunderstorms are forecast to develop.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday
through Monday as several upper level disturbances move through the
flow and combine with the low level moisture to help produce the
showers and storms.  Again, the devil will be in the details on how
much coverage of rain the Panhandles will get from day to day.  Some
of the storms will be severe through this period.  At this time, it
looks like Saturday and Monday may have the better potential to see
severe weather given the extra convergence along the dryline and
better potential instability.  Highs are expected to warm through
the period from mainly 70`s on Friday to mainly 90`s on Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at the beginning of this TAF cycle.
Winds will be out of the south to southeast for most of the next
24 hours. Showers and storms are possible after 00z at all sites,
but confidence is not high enough that a storm will impact a site
to include mentions at this time. If a storm is near, strong winds
would be possible in addition to lightning. Low clouds are
possible towards the end of this TAF cycle and could drop ceilings
to MVFR or lower.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                76  61  83  58 /  10  30  40  70
Beaver OK                  81  61  82  57 /  10  50  70  80
Boise City OK              77  57  83  54 /  30  50  70  60
Borger TX                  81  63  87  59 /  10  30  60  80
Boys Ranch TX              79  61  88  58 /  20  40  50  70
Canyon TX                  76  60  83  57 /  20  30  40  70
Clarendon TX               74  61  80  58 /  10  50  60  80
Dalhart TX                 77  57  85  54 /  30  40  50  60
Guymon OK                  79  59  83  55 /  10  40  70  70
Hereford TX                79  61  89  57 /  20  30  30  60
Lipscomb TX                79  61  80  58 /  10  50  70  90
Pampa TX                   77  61  82  58 /  10  40  60  80
Shamrock TX                77  61  80  58 /  10  50  60  80
Wellington TX              78  62  81  60 /  10  50  60  80

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...05