Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
515 FXUS63 KDLH 222323 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 623 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and clouds slowly exit our area through the afternoon with gusty winds being felt near the lake with a Wind Advisory in place till this evening - Low chance of storms tomorrow ahead of a more widespread rain maker arriving early Friday Morning - Cooler and drier pattern takes hold starting this weekend and continuing into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Short Term: As a sub 990mb low pressure system moves eastward across Northern Ontario, we are still feeling some lingering effects of it in our neck of the woods. Some weak rain showers and drizzle is hanging around NE Minnesota especially closer to the Canadian Border. Furthermore, due to a tight pressure gradient in the area, winds have been quite gusty. Weve had multiple gusts >40mph for areas surrounding Lake Superior. As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for these areas to accommodate these gusty conditions. As the low treks further NE through today, both the precipitation chances and wind gusts will drop. One more thing to note for this afternoon for areas further southwest from the Brainerd Lakes region stretching into Sandstone and onto Hayward has a chance (20-30%) of showers and a possible thunderstorm this afternoon and into the evening. While no major impacts are expected out of them, some small hail and stronger gusts (up to 40mph) could be seen in the stronger cores. With diurnal help, these storms should die off later this evening. Though tonight and into tomorrow, a cold front moving down from Canada will become stationary in an E/W orientation somewhere across the central portion of our CWA. There exists the potential for some patchy frost across Northern Minnesota with the best chances closest to the International Border where temperatures will be flirting with the freezing mark. Heading into tomorrow, soundings suggest the potential for showers and a few storms to develop along the boundary later Thursday afternoon. With upwards of 500-1000 joules of MUCAPE and 25-30kts of shear some organized convection could present the possibility of hail and/or gusty winds. It should be noted that CAMs arent the most enthusiastic on these storms firing so its chances hedge on the lower side (20-30%) of these storms even firing in the first place. Later on Thursday and into Friday, storms that developed earlier on Thursday across the Dakotas in association with a shortwave trough will finally be reaching the far western edges of our CWA. This will likely be in a linear form with gusty winds being the biggest threat as they move eastward with time. As the low pressure system continues eastward Friday we should expect scattered showers and even a few rumbles of thunder as the system moves across our CWA. NBM is highlighting another 0.4-0.7 of rain into Saturday morning which could exacerbate any pre-existing hydrological concerns from the system over the past few days. Extended Range: Following this, the synoptic pattern will flip with a ridge likely setting up over the Western CONUS and troughing in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. Within the upper level flow out of the northwest, ensembles are highlighting cooler and drier conditions through the middle of next week where models diverge on the future synoptic pattern. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Low pressure centered just north of Thunder Bay will continue to move northeastward away from our area. Scattered showers over parts of the area, mainly in northern/northeastern Minnesota, will continue to diminish in coverage throughout the evening as this low departs. While some MVFR ceilings are present across far northern Minnesota, including KINL, ceilings there will also improve to VFR by late this evening. Winds quickly become light this evening and variable overnight as a weak surface front settles into the Northland. VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period aside from some low chances (20-30%) for some isolated to widely scattered shower/thunderstorm development along the front during the afternoon. Have included a PROB30 mention at KBRD where a couple high-res models have a slightly more coherent signal for this convection to develop. Otherwise, kept precipitation mention out of the remainder of the TAF sites due to confidence being too low in seeing convection, let alone if it develops at all. Better shower and thunderstorm chances move in from the west Thursday evening and night. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 West to southwest gales around 35 knots will continue this afternoon but decrease through the evening/overnight. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed following the Gale Warnings through at least late evening, and for the North Shore through much of tonight. A period of lighter winds, mostly at or below 15 knots, will develop Thursday but this will be short-lived as another area of low pressure moves toward the region. Easterly winds will ramp up Thursday night into Friday with gale force gusts possible (30-60%) Friday, highest in the Twin Ports area. There will be a chance for thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ020-021-037. WI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-140>148- 150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Melde/KP AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...Melde