Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 102034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
234 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

A weak surface ridge was located over the western end of
Lake Superior at 20Z/2pm. This resulted in a southeast wind up the
North Shore, and a northeast wind from the Twin Ports harbor east
along the South Shore. A very dry airmass was over the lake and no
clouds were found. Farther west, an inverted trof was moving into
the eastern Dakotas. Plenty of clouds were being generated on both
sides of the trof. Only some flurries had occurred today for a time
as the atmosphere has been very dry. Meanwhile, a compressed closed
upper low was moving through western South Dakota. An open upper
wave, with this low, was focusing some vorticity into northern
Minnesota. This wave will slowly move across the forecast area
tonight. There are some model differences with the placement of the
best lift, available moisture, and the subsequent placement of pops
with the trof. Have used a blend of several models to come up with a
solution that best represents the possible outcome.

An elongated area of vorticity is progged to follow behind the
aforementioned trof. The best moisture for this vorticity to work
with will be found in the morning over northeast Minnesota, then
northwest Wisconsin in the afternoon. This moisture will be ahead of
the vorticity, and thus the better forcing, will be behind the
moisture. Models are in better agreement with the handling of these
features and have small pops along and ahead of the trof. Snow will
be the dominant ptype in the morning, transitions to a rain/snow mix,
then all rain for a bit, before back to a mix late in the afternoon
in northwest Wisconsin. Temps will be above normal tonight and

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

The long term period is shaping up to be a very quiet period with
above normal temperatures and little precipitation. A few lingering
lake effect snow showers will be possible across the Gogebic Range
on Sunday night. A reinforcing cold front will backdoor into the
region on Monday, keeping the chance of lake effect snow showers
alive along the South Shore into Tuesday evening. Surface high
pressure and an upper level ridge will then push into the western
Great Lakes on Tuesday night, with high pressure remaining in
control from Wednesday into Thursday. There is a small chance of
precipitation from Thursday night into Saturday, as a shortwave
moves eastward across the region. The GFS and ECMWF are not in very
good agreement at this point, but in terms of sensible weather, both
indicate some light QPF at times throughout this period. High
temperatures will generally be in the mid 30s on Monday, but rise
into the 40s for daytime highs from Wednesday into Saturday. Lows
will generally range from the teens to lower 20s early in the
period, but rise into the 20s by Thursday night and Friday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

A weak trough of low pressure will move slowly eastward across the
Northland tonight and Sunday. While all locations will start the
day in the VFR range, we should see lowering CIG`s and VSBY`s from
west to east. The lowest CIG`s and VSBY`s are expected tonight and
early Sunday, with some IFR conditions due to some light snow and
widespread stratus. Conditions will then improve from west to east
on Sunday, as the trough moves east and high pressure builds in.


DLH  18  37  19  34 /  30  30   0   0
INL  18  38  17  34 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  22  37  18  35 /  70  30   0   0
HYR  17  39  20  37 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  14  38  23  36 /  10  20  10  20




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