Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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812 FXUS63 KLMK 010727 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 327 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Rain and storm chances return this weekend and continue into next week. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be on a steady increase into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A shortwave trough axis will slowly move from the mid Mississippi River Valley through our region today and tonight. Ahead of this feature, we do see an uptick in low level jetting to around 30-35 knots or so which will aid in PWAT values surging toward 1.75" or so later today. Some weak isentropic lift may also be present in addition to some very meager elevated instability (250 J/KG or less of MU CAPE). Overall, this should result in widespread light rain overspreading the area later this morning into the afternoon. Could see a few pockets of moderate rain as well as a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Overall, expecting around .33" to .5" for most, with some localized areas closer to .75" possible. Trough axis is slow to move through, so will keeping lingering pops in tonight. May see some fog develop across our NW toward dawn on Sunday. Should be a notable temp gradient from W to E today. Expecting mostly low to mid 70s along and west of I-65. Meanwhile, areas farther east should be more in the mid to upper 70s given a bit more time to "heat" up before precipitation onset. Smaller diurnal range into tonight, given the heavy cloud cover. As a result, only expecting to drop into the low and mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Sunday - Sunday Night Shower chances will linger Sunday morning and possibly into the afternoon as the weak mid-level wave and associated sfc low scoots off to our northeast. Low level ridge will be eroding the moisture transport throughout the day, but still expect a warm and muggy airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s and temperatures peaking near 80. Along with the warm airmass, some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon would amplify the possibility of realizing marginal instability, especially across south-central Kentucky. There won`t be much forcing left by then, but perhaps some pulse storms could pop up in the afternoon hours, leading to some localized downpours. Eventually a drier airmass will arrive by Sunday night, leading to a brief period with no precip mention in the forecast. Dry weather will continue into Monday morning. Normal temperatures expected overnight, with readings in the low and mid-60s. Monday - Wednesday A summer-like pattern will take over for the first half of next week, with daily shower and storm chances as a parade of weak waves provide forcing in a warm and humid environment. If there`s any chance for a day to be drier than the others, it will be Monday. Low- level ridging will help keep dry conditions for most of Monday, especially for areas east of I-65. WAA regime will set up Monday to be the warmest day of the long term period, with afternoon highs peaking in the mid- and upper-80s. Confidence on timing and coverage of each wave of precip and storm chances remains low. Both Monday and Tuesday afternoon will pose the risk for pulse-type thunderstorm development in an unstable environment with steep low level lapse rates. Wednesday brings our highest PoPs of the week as a cold front sweeps through the region. This frontal boundary will provide better forcing for showers and storms, with the potential for some strong to severe storms not out of the question either. Thursday - Weekend Very low confidence in weather elements during the period as model uncertainty increases substantially. All in all, forecast indicates slow lowering trend in rain chances towards the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Things are quiet across the TAF sites at this hour, with light right still off to the SW of BWG HNB. Seeing some high clouds and light ESE to SE winds early this morning, before lower ceilings and widespread rainfall move into our SW later this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms then overspread the rest of the area through the day. Handled any Thunderstorm chances with Prob30 groups, but did prevail the rainfall as it is expected to be widespread. Surface winds veer to the S and strengthen around sunrise, and then gust up around 20-25 mph by late morning/midday through the afternoon. Ceilings are expected to lower to at least low MVFR with the widespread rainfall, and then linger around the low MVFR/IFR threshold toward the end of this TAF cycle. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...CJP AVIATION...BJS