922
FXUS63 KLMK 092339
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
739 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered showers and storms will diminish in
  coverage by this evening. Patchy fog will be possible early
  Thursday morning.

* Warm and humid conditions continue into the weekend, with
  additional shower and storm chances for Saturday and especially
  Sunday as a cold front approaches the area. No severe weather is
  expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 536 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Much of the LMK forecast area has remained dry this afternoon,
with showers and storms mainly being confined to a narrow corridor
across southern IN and north central KY, with isolated activity
elsewhere. Persistent mid-level cloud cover may be limiting
destabilization enough to keep activity isolated, so have nudged
PoPs down slightly outside of the areas where showers and storms are
ongoing. Radar suggests that the band of cells does have a bit of an
outflow kick to it, and additional cells may try to develop as this
outflow pushes to the south over the next few hours. Given some
training of cells and elevated PWATs, we`ll need to keep an eye out
on localized flooding over the next few hours before convective
activity diminishes later this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Isolated showers and storms are across the region this afternoon,
which is driven by a shortwave overhead and an associated vort max.
A weak frontal boundary is located across Indiana, and is expected
to remain north of our area. Temps have warmed into the low 80s for
most (outside of SDF), thanks to increased cloud cover over our
area. With a lack of steep lapse rates and virtually no shear,
storms have struggled this afternoon. Expect precip to diminish by
this evening as we lose the daytime heating.

Clouds will continue overnight, but should be mostly mid-level and
high-level clouds. With light winds, and low level moisture
lingering, patchy fog will be possible for the predawn hours.

After sunrise tomorrow, any fog will burn off eventually, leading to
another seasonable day with highs peaking in the upper 80s, and
perhaps lower 90s for the heat islands. The aforementioned frontal
boundary will remain north of the region tomorrow, with less mid-
level forcing expected. This should lead to a drier day, especially
to the west of I-65. Some isolated pop-ups will be possible in our
east, but coverage should be minimal given the lack of forcing and
weak shear. Greatest chances will be in the afternoon once again,
thanks to peak heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A weak frontal boundary will be located north of the region Thursday
night, with deeper moisture focused across the southeastern US. With
this pattern in place, and a lack of strong forcing, we`ll have a
dry period for Thursday night and into Friday morning. Weak sfc high
pressure over the Carolinas on Friday will provide a warm SW flow
into the region, which will support our sfc temps to warm into the
upper 80s and low 90s, along with dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. A few isolated showers and storms will be possible Friday
afternoon, with the greatest chances east of I-65. Model soundings
show tall and skinny CAPE profiles, with very weak flow throughout
the entire column. While most of the region should remain mostly
dry, some cells may pop-up in an agitated cu field. Storm motions
will be quite slow, though our shear parameters will be very weak,
leading to any storms to be unorganized. Any isolated coverage will
diminish by Friday evening as brief upper ridging passes overhead.


As we get into the weekend, another frontal boundary will be passing
through the Midwest as yet another shortwave trough pivots across
the High Plains. Additional shower and storm chances will be
possible for the weekend, though the best chances of the long term
will be on Sunday as the front slides through the forecast area.
Severe weather chances are low with FROPA, given the unidirectional
wind profiles and weak deep layer shear. Temps for the weekend will
have a better chance of hitting the 90s, which will feel quite warm
with dewpoints expected to hit the mid 70s.


Additional low-end rain chances will linger into early next week as
weak impulses pass overhead, but confidence beyond Sunday remains
low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Continue to watch some SHRA/TSRA just north of SDF/LEX/HNB; these
should fizzle over the next 2-3 hours, but can`t rule out brief
impacts. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions this evening and
into early Thursday morning. After 06Z tonight, rich low level
moisture and light-variable winds should lead to the development of
patchy fog and/or low stratus across the region. MVFR, TEMPO IFR or
lower visibilities are favored at all sites except SDF, with the
main window for lower flight categories expected between 08-14Z. For
the day on Thursday, low level moisture should lift into a SCT-BKN
cu field, with VFR conditions expected to return by midday. Winds
should be fairly light out of the W/SW. SHRA/TSRA are possible
Thursday afternoon, but coverage is expected to be isolated.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CSG