Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 161730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
130 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

High pressure nosing in from the north behind this morning`s cold
fropa will keep us dry today, though mid and high clouds will
gradually increase as the day goes on. Temperatures will be tricky
given the frontal passage and will be partially dependent on how
much cloud cover we get. Temps have overachieved the past couple of
days, so will go a bit warmer than guidance might suggest, with
highs mostly in the 50s.

Tonight the former cold front will drift back north as a warm front
into Kentucky while its parent low follows I-70 from Topeka to Saint
Louis. Isentropic lift on the 300K surface will increase
significantly this evening. Mid clouds will thicken first and it may
take a few hours for dry low levels to gain much moisture. So, in the
forecast will go with scattered light rain showers in the evening
and then higher PoPs overnight with better low level moisture.
Amounts should still be light, less than a quarter of an inch.

On Saturday that low to our west will move east-southeastward across
Kentucky accompanied by scattered showers. A rumble of thunder isn`t
entirely out of the question late Friday night into Saturday,
especially across southern Kentucky.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Weak ridging moving in at the surface and aloft should lead to
mostly dry conditions Saturday night through Sunday.

Monday low pressure is expected to advance from Wichita to Memphis,
then into southern Kentucky Monday night and into the central
Appalachians Tuesday. This is a slightly slower solution than what
we had been seeing in the data over the last few days. This is also
a slightly further south track, but the models have been jumping
back and forth between farther north and farther south tracks, so it
wouldn`t be a big surprise to see future runs bring the low back
north a bit. Forecast wise this still spells a good chance of
showers for the region during the first couple days of the new week.
A few thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, especially if
the low track does shift back to the north.

Tuesday night through Thursday a progressive upper trough will dig
into the eastern United States, keeping precipitation chances in the
forecast mid-week before possibly drying out on Thursday.
Temperature profiles continue to indicate precipitation in the form
of light snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning although
surface temperatures may stay just a bit above freezing.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Plan on showers to spread across the region late this evening
through Saturday morning early. The highest coverage of showers will
be from midnight through 7 am. Expect ceilings to lower as the
showers move in, likely dropping into the MVFR range with some
potential for IFR at HNB, SDF, and LEX.

There is a marginal LLWS threat at SDF/LEX during the warm front
passage from around 09z to 12z. Went ahead and included it in the
forecast. Surface winds will be out of the east while 2000 ft winds
will be southwest at 35-40 kts.

The warm front stalls along the Ohio River for the second half of
the period, with lower clouds/showers along/north of it, while
further south toward BWG, clearer skies and breezy southwest winds
are expected. There will be a sharp temperature and ceiling
gradient across the area.




Short Term...13
Long Term...13
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