Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 140704

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
304 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.Short Term...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Today and tonight will be dry with scattered/patchy clouds,
especially east of I-65, as an upper trough slowly pulls off to the
east. Temperatures should make it into the lower and middle 40s west
of I-65, and near 40 east. High pressure over the Ozarks today will
sink down to the Gulf Coast as a cold front approaches from the
north tonight. Many locations will manage to stay just above
freezing tonight, though the usual cold spots will likely dip into
the upper 20s.

On Thursday that cold front will drop into Kentucky, oriented east-
west. However with the high to our south blocking the Gulf, the
front will be dry with just a few clouds. Winds may get a little
gusty, perhaps up to around 20mph especially in the afternoon in
southern Kentucky ahead of the front. High temperatures will be in
the 50s behind the front and the 60s out ahead of it.


.Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

The cold front that will drop into Kentucky on Thursday will become
a wavy quasi-stationary front somewhere between the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys and the southeast U.S. for much of the remainder of the
forecast as flow aloft becomes less meridional. This makes for a
lower confidence forecast since the exact position of the front and
the timing of disturbances in the flow will have significant impacts
on our sensible weather, including where precipitation does and does
not fall. The exact timing and positioning of these features, plus
high pressure stretching from the upper Mississippi Valley to the
mid-Atlantic, will also affect precipitation type.

Latest operational GFS supports the possibility of storms here
Monday/Monday night, however the model has shown almost no run-to-
run consistency in the placement and track of the parent low
anchoring the storm system. Monday evening the various perturbations
of the GFS ensemble have the low anywhere from the Red River Valley
to the eastern Great Lakes. There also hasn`t been much inter-model
consistency, though the new ECMWF has trended in the direction of
the GFS.

In the forecast, will bring some showers into the region with the
front hovering nearby and the Gulf opening up as the high to our
south drifts toward Florida Thursday night through Friday night.
Given surface temperatures, will include a rain/snow mix for a few
hours early Friday morning for now, though sounding progs aren`t
showing much ice in the column and are indicating a low level warm
layer slightly above 0C with surface temperatures slightly below
freezing, raising the question of -FZRA. Definitely something to

Confidence is low for the weekend but will need to keep PoPs going
as the front remains nearby. Precipitation type will again become an
issue Saturday morning with soundings suggesting a possibility of
freezing rain from southern Indiana into the Kentucky Bluegrass. We
could also hear a rumble or two of thunder in southern Kentucky
Saturday afternoon.

Shower chances continue into the new week as winter ends and spring
begins and that Plains low rolls eastward. As discussed earlier,
thunder will be a possibility Monday, especially in southern


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

The snow this morning has moved out of SDF, HNB, and BWG. The bulk
of the snow has moved out of LEX as well, though some flurries may
continue off and on for the next hour or so. Clouds will scatter out
tonight with skies becoming mostly clear at SDF, HNB, and BWG. LEX
may scatter out for a brief period early this morning, but guidance
does show more clouds moving in through the later morning hours.
Winds will shift from northwesterly this morning to westerly by mid
day to southwesterly by early evening. Gusts of 18-20 knots should
develop late morning and last through the afternoon hours.




Short Term...13
Long Term...13
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