Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 241906

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
306 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

The widespread heavier precipitation has moved out of the area this
afternoon. Current radar shows very light rain/snow drizzle in
between heavier showers. With the cold air aloft these heavier
showers will be capable of producing small hail up to pea size.

Temperatures at the surface and aloft remain quite cold in the
Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning areas. These should
warm a bit over the next few hours, but the potential for some snow
and sleet mixing in at times remains. The latest HRRR continues to
indicate an increase in precipitation coverage through the late
afternoon hours in these areas, so will keep the headlines going for
now as a precaution. However, impacts and additional snow and sleet
accumulations will be more spotty.

Through the overnight hours, precipitation will come to an end from
north to south. Temperatures will bottom out tonight in the upper
20s in far norther KY and portions of southeastern IN and in the
upper 30s across south central KY.

Drier weather is then in store for the remainder of the short term
period as weak ridging builds in aloft. Skies will still stay partly
to mostly cloudy tomorrow with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Lows
will bottom out in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Sunday night.


.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Ridging aloft will continue to build over the area on Monday. The
axis of this ridge will then shift slowly eastward through midweek.
At the surface, a warm front will approach on Monday and will move
north across the region through Monday night.

Monday will start out dry, but showers associated with the
aforementioned warm front will start to move in from the southwest
in the afternoon. This rain will continue to push north overnight.
Tuesday looks to be dry for at least a portion of central KY and
possibly most areas south of the river. Southerly winds will pick up
ushering in warmer air. The current forecast has highs topping out
in the low to mid 60s, but if there is some sun and dry conditions,
temps could be higher than that.

A slow moving cold front will then move through Wednesday into
Thursday. Rounds of showers are expected along and ahead of this
front beginning on Tuesday night and lasting through at least
Thursday. Rain with this system could be heavy at times. WPC still
has much of the area in a broad 3-4 inches of rain through the next
7 days. Given this we could start to see some minor river
flooding/areal flooding by the end of next week.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A warm front stretched southeast of a surface Low over eastern
Missouri to just S of KBWG at 17Z. Precip - mainly rain now - was
occurring off/on at all TAF sites, as warmer air pushed northeast of
the surface front.  Still a possibility of some sleet at KLEX
for the next 1-2 hours before all rain expected.

The surface Low will drift southeast through the TAF period, with a
tight pressure gradient on the north side of it keeping northeast
winds in the double digits through the period, except at KBWG, which
will see a dip in winds as the Low passes just to its south along
the current warm front.  A few claps of thunder are possible this
afternoon, but these will be few and far between.

MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings and vsbys will prevail through
around 25/06Z when drier air will start to move in as the surface
Low dips south and east of the area.


IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ078.

     Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for INZ079.

KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ032-

     Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ036-037-042-



Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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