Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 150118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
918 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Skies will remain clear for the rest of the night. Did adjust the
hourly temperatures to keep them steady or rising after midnight.
Southwesterly winds have diminished a bit since sunset, and
temperatures east of I-65 have dipped into the low to mid 30s.
However, 40-50 kt LLJ will continue to develop and spread ESE over
the region tonight. After midnight, surface winds should respond
and gradually veer westerly toward daybreak. The breezy winds and
WAA should be more than enough to offset radiational cooling.


.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

(Today - Tonight)

Currently, southern Indiana and central Kentucky are mostly sunny.
There are still some clouds over parts of the central Kentucky,
mainly in the Bluegrass Region. These clouds should continue to
dissipate this evening as the upper trough continues to push further
east. This is making way for the surface high to move east from
Texas. Tonight, clear skies won`t affect our temperatures too much
with a steady southwest wind temperatures should fall to the mid to
low 30s.

(Thursday - Thursday Night)

An upper ridge over the plains will move east over the Ohio Valley.
At the surface, two high pressure centers will remain north and
south of IN and KY, and low pressure will sit to the west over CO
and near the coast to the east. Most of the day will remain sunny
with the high pressure in the area, but a cold front will ride the
upper ridge into the CWA tomorrow. Ahead of the cold front, winds
will be brisk at 10 - 15 mph with gusts in the low 20 mph range, but
there is no moisture for this front because of this don`t expect any
precipitation. Winds will die off tomorrow night after the front

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

(Friday - Saturday)

The upper ridge`s axis sitting along the Mississippi River will
begin to advance east. With an upper low over Kansas, the system
will funnel Gulf of Mexico moisture north. The cold front will
make its way as far south as TN were it slows. A shortwave pushes
through the area around late Friday night. This will drive
precipitation through the area. The leading edge of precipitation
could fall as snow for a few hours as temperatures warm from the
high 20s into the 30s as the front moves north as a warm front. This
is expected to be a bigger rain threat.

(Sunday - Tuesday)

Monday, an upper ridge with an embedded shortwave will move
through IN and KY. This will drive rain chances Monday with
possible thunder Monday afternoon as the shortwave drives through
with the upper low. This will likely fuel rain until Tuesday


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR flight conditions expected throughout this TAF period. Clear
skies are likely overnight, except for perhaps a few mid-level
clouds over LEX and eastern KY. Low-level wind shear is forecast
tonight. Westerly winds at 2 kft are expected to crank up to 40-50
kts. Surface winds should subside and back more southwesterly 00-
06z, but then increase after 06z. LLWS should diminish toward 13z

Mostly sunny skies are expected Thursday, with breezy westerly
winds. Gusts over 20 kts likely at BWG/LEX. SCT 5 kft clouds likely
by the afternoon and evening hours.




Short Term...KDW
Long Term...KDW
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