Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 230922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
522 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 520 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

A dry slot is working northward across southern KY at this time.
This has made for a break in the rain coverage, though a lower-
topped band of rain is rotating outward from the upper low now over
western TN...filling in parts of that gap. Have trended the rain
chances down some to account for this drying feature. Also tweaked
the rest of the grids toward current observations. This new forecast
calls for an additional 1-2 inches of rain falling a large chunk of
the forecast area by this evening...with the peak amounts along an
axis from Salem, IN to Louisville to Campbellsville in KY.


.Short Term...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Mature storm system now centered near Memphis. Plenty of divergence
aloft east and northeast of this low is causing an expansive area of
light to moderate rains that will continue to overspread the rest of
central Kentucky and southern Indiana the rest of this morning. By
this afternoon, the low only will make it into western TN, but we
should see some pockets of dryness develop in the rain shield. These
places shouldn`t stay dry for long though, as it won`t take much
heating to generate additional showers. Cannot rule out some rumbles
of thunder over southern Kentucky with these pockets as well.

Tonight, the upper low will try and make it into southwest Kentucky,
but by daybreak Tuesday it likely will be right along the central
KY/TN border. We should expect continued good rain chances, though
with the best forcing farther east the amounts falling should drop
some. By Tuesday afternoon, the low should be just east of us, but
rain chances, and again some slight chances for thunder, will stay
up through the day along with cooler than normal temperatures.

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The influence of the upper level low will be waning Tuesday night,
with just a few showers still possible across the area. However
another upper system will drop in from the Midwest Wednesday.
Moisture is not too abundant with this system, so rain chances will
be much lower than with today`s system. One more upper trough drops
in here Friday, with a cold front swinging through. This keeps up
rain chances for the work week...not to mention keeping temperatures
from spiking too warm on any one day.

Behind the Fri/Fri night system we may actually build in a few dry
days, with a warmup for the weekend.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Large upper level low pressure system near MEM will slowly move
eastward toward the southern Ohio Valley during the TAF period.
Ceilings will gradually lower through the Monday morning hours as
moisture is transported north. Moderate showers have been ongoing at
BWG, and MVFR vsbys are likely between 06-12z. The other TAF sites
will likely remain VFR until after 12z. HNB and SDF are likely to
see an extended period of MVFR ceilings after mid-morning.

LLWS is a concern early this morning, particularly at BWG. 45-50 kt
easterly low level jet will diminish after 09z. Expect easterly
surface winds of 10-15 kts with occasional gusts during the period.
A ribbon of drier air will push up into central KY this afternoon,
so expect coverage to drop a bit. Scattered to numerous showers
still likely. And in the vicinity of BWG, could have a rumble or two
of thunder. A more convective shower or storm could produce small
hail given cold temperatures aloft.




Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
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