380
FXUS64 KMAF 241943
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A weak cold front reinforced by an outflow boundary courtesy of
overnight convection to the north of the region continues its slow
progression toward the Pecos River this afternoon. This front
isn`t expected to make it too much further as it becomes
increasingly diffuse with diurnal heating, though to the north of
the boundary, temperatures across the northern Permian Basin and
Southeast New Mexico are holding in the 80s, with 90s focused to
the south, and locations creeping into the 100s along the Rio
Grande. Unfortunately, given how dry it is, no precipitation is
expected with this boundary, with the whole region expected to
remain high and dry through the upcoming holiday weekend. Tonight,
winds will gradually shift to the south and southeast, allowing
for meager moisture return, but keeping temperatures mild in the
60s for most of the region with 50s in the mountains and northern
reaches of the forecast area and lower 70s for portions of the Rio
Grande Valley.

Heading into Saturday, the cold front today will be but a memory,
with highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s expected across the lower
elevations, and even the mountains unable to escape the hot
temperatures, with highs climbing into the 90s for all but the
highest peaks. Tomorrow`s warm up is facilitated by a transition
back to southwesterly flow aloft and a passing shortwave to the
north of the area that will result in an increase in westerly to
southwesterly downsloping surface flow and associated compressional
warming beneath an 850 hPa thermal ridge. Given the sharp increase
in temperatures, another round of Heat Advisory conditions is
expected, especially along and south of I-10 from Pecos County and
the Davis Mountains south to the Rio Grande. Regardless, Saturday
will be very hot areawide, and those with outdoor plans need to plan
accordingly and stay hydrated in order to prevent heat-related
illnesses.

In addition to the hot temperatures Saturday, the aforementioned
shortwave will result in breezy to windy conditions areawide,
especially over the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains. Model
guidance indicates a pronounced mountain wave signature to the lee
of the Guadalupe Mountains, where the strongest winds with gusts to
75 mph are expected. Across the adjacent plains of Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas, winds could gust to 50 to 55 mph, and given
these locations across the west have missed out on much of the
rainfall other areas have received the past few months, blowing dust
cannot be ruled out, especially in the vicinity of open fields or
work sites. The hot, dry, and windy conditions will also yield an
uptick in fire weather concerns, with critical fire weather
conditions and extreme fire danger expected to develop across the
west on Saturday. More on the Fire Weather risk can be found in the
Fire Weather Discussion below.

Saturday evening, winds will gradually diminish after sunset with
the loss of heating and as the shortwave translates eastward across
the Plains. However, winds will remain out of the west overnight,
yielding continued very dry conditions, and keeping temperatures
once again on the mild side, ranging from the upper 50s across far
western areas to the lower 70s across the southeast.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

 - The heat remains Sunday.
 - Thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Thursday?

A broadish ridge in the subtropical westerlies will persist
Sunday. Looking at the Day3 cluster analyses in DESI suggest that
temperatures will be a tad higher than what NBM 4.2 is suggesting,
therefore have raised them a degree or so from the median. This
will mean that Heat Advisories will likely be needed for the
Davis, Chisos, and Chinati Mountains as well as the Big Bend and
Brewster County since the mercury will soar from the mid 90s in
the mountains to near 113 at Rio Grande Village. Elsewhere it will
be hot, though not as bad, with readings Sunday afternoon ranging
from the upper 90s up across the northeastern Permian Basin to
around 101 in the Pecos River Valley. Overnight lows Sunday night
will range from the lower 50s across the Marfa Plateau to near 70
along the Rio Grande.

Ensemble progs remain consistent in bringing  down a weak cold
front -- possibly augmented by MCS outflow -- into the northern
Permian Basin Monday morning, eventually reaching the Pecos River
Valley around midday, and (according to the NBM) to the Rio
Grande by sunset. Not too sure about making it that far south as
strong insolation will act frontolytically on this airmass; in any
event, the front will hang up somewhere along the higher terrain
by Monday afternoon. Highs on Memorial Day will be a few degrees
cooler than Sunday`s scorcher, and lows Monday night will be a few
degrees warmer. Considered bringing in low-order PoPs across the
mountains for Monday afternoon but decided against it as forecast
MLCAPE values (~500 J/kg) and meager effective shear of 30 knots
or less will mean that attempts at CI will be hammered by the cap.
However...

Upslope flow and increasing moisture Tuesday through Thursday
behind the front favor an increase in PoP chances across much of
the southern High Plains. The subtropical ridge shifts ever slow
slowly eastward per the ensemble mean, allowing for subtle short
wave troughs to impinge upon this combination of instability and
moisture. Indeed, precipitable water values climb to 2-3 cm per
ensemble guidance, and as such the diurnally-forced convective
nature of things will mean that some areas could pick up a quick-
hitting inch or so of rain while those less fortunate will only
smell the rain. The best chances for shower and thunderstorm
activity will be Wednesday when the best combination of shear,
instability, and buoyancy will exist. Highs Tuesday through
Thursday will be modulated by moisture, residual outflow
boundaries, etc. which is another way of saying near normal, and
lows each night will be a bit warmer than normal given the
increase in moisture. Precipitation chances wane Friday, but may
return for next weekend as southwesterly flow increases and the
dryline banks up against the higher terrain. -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Elevated and
intermittently gusty northwesterly to northerly winds are possible
through around 20Z-21Z, with gusts diminishing later this
afternoon and winds becoming light overnight. By around 14Z-16Z,
winds shift to the west-southwest at all terminals, becoming
gusty at or just beyond the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

 - Critical to extreme fire weather conditions across western
   areas Saturday.
 - Marginal to critical extreme fire weather conditions Sunday
   across western locales.

A passing upper level storm system Saturday will bring strong and
gusty winds to the mountains and adjacent plains. Combined with
minimum relative humidity values around 4 percent, temperatures in
the triple digits, and ERC values above the 95th percentile, the
stage is set for critical to extreme fire weather conditions from
the Sacramento Mountains and Chaves County plains all the way
south to the Big Bend. Adding insult to injury, overnight RH
recovery tonight will range from poor across the west to fair
across the east, so fine to medium fuels will have no chance to
moisten up. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning will be issued for the
aforementioned areas from mid morning through mid evening
Saturday.

Winds will slacken up Sunday, but the heat, low minimum relative
humidity, and high ERC values will remain. A Rangeland Fire Danger
Statement may be needed Sunday over these same areas. Relief will
come on Monday with passage of a weak cold front, and moisture and
rain chances will increase Tuesday through Thursday, mitigating
fire weather concerns somewhat. However, we`ll have to be on the
lookout for dry lightning strikes over the mountains where no
appreciable rainfall has been seen in well over a month. -bc

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63 101  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 63 100  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   69 105  71 106 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            64 104  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           62  90  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    57  99  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    51  95  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     62 100  65  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   63 101  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     60 103  63  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Saturday for Andrews-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 11 PM CDT /10 PM
     MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 11 PM CDT Saturday for Eastern
     Culberson County-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for Central
     Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Terrell.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for Chaves
     Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM MDT Saturday for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...84