504
FXUS64 KMAF 030836
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
336 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

An active period is ahead for the short term, with severe
thunderstorms possible both today and Saturday. Early this
morning, winds are generally light and variable, thanks to a
combination of a weak cold front sagging across the Permian Basin
and the retreating dryline. Dewpoints across the Permian Basin and
into Lea County have recovered into the 50s and even lower 60s,
with lows not expected to drop much below where they area now, in
the upper 50s to upper 60s for many. Expansive low clouds have
already worked their way northwestward into portions of the Lower
Trans Pecos, and are progged to expand across the central and
eastern Permian Basin through daybreak. However, clearing skies
are expected by mid-morning, allowing for plenty of time for
warming and subsequent destabilization ahead of convective
development this afternoon.

As southwesterly winds develop this afternoon, the dryline will
mix eastward from its morning position west of the Pecos River,
and sharpen up from the Permian Basin southward across the Trans
Pecos to the Rio Grande. The aforementioned cold front this
morning will wash out, mixing northward this afternoon as
southerly flow increases across the eastern half of the forecast
area. Highs today top out in the middle 80s to lower 90s for most,
with 100s along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Given elevated
moisture to the east of the dryline, diurnal destabilization will
result in CAPE values in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg (and possibly up
to nearly 4000 J/kg). Lapse rates around 8 degC/km will support
large to very large hail, with veering flow and increasing low-
level shear through the late afternoon and early evening lending
to a non-zero tornado threat. Initiation is progged to occur over
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos south toward the Rio Grande by
mid-afternoon, with storms generally moving eastward and gradually
congealing into outflow-dominated clusters by the evening. A bulk
of the activity should be east of our area by mid-evening, though
a few lingering non-severe storms may be possible over northern
portions of the area overnight as the dryline retreats, in closer
proximity to the diffuse frontal boundary.

The low-level jet will keep winds and moisture elevated tonight,
allowing the dryline to once again retreat to the higher terrain
of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas. In a change from
today, convective initiation is expected earlier in the day on
Saturday as the aforementioned front surges southward coincident
with a surface trough that develops immediately to the lee of the
higher terrain. Thus, precipitation chances as well as potential
for strong to severe storms encompass much of the area, with
particular focus across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos where
the greatest potential (40%-70%) for severe storms exists along
the eastward moving dryline and southward moving cold front. Shear
will be notably stronger on Saturday, around 35-45kt, and
moderate to strong instability will yield mainly an initial
supercellular storm mode, with very large hail and damaging winds
the primary concerns, along with locally heavy rainfall given
precipitable water values increasing to 1 to 2 standard deviations
above normal by late afternoon and early evening, per NAEFS
ensemble data. Storms are progged to linger into the evening, and
aside from the storm potential, the cold front will also yield
cooler temperatures, with afternoon highs in the 80s to lower 90s
along and south/west of the Pecos (hotter along the Rio Grande),
with 70s encroaching over the northern tier of the forecast area
where the front will arrive prior to peak heating.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Rain chances will continue Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon
before tapering off as the southern stream short wave trough and
upper low move east of the area by then. Potential for strong to
severe storms continues Saturday night for eastern portions of the
area, with the threat for flooding rains, damaging winds, and
large hail. Widespread clouds and rain chances Saturday night will
keep lows mild and slightly above normal in the 60s for most
aside from 50s in higher elevations and northern portions of the
SE NM plains. Highest rainfall amounts are likely east of the
Pecos River, especially east of the Midland-Odessa area over the
eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains, where
maximum rainfall totals at the end of this rain event are forecast
to range from 1.00 to 2.00 inches. As the upper low responsible
for this weekend`s rain moves east and takes on a negative tilt as
it moves into the central Great Plains, increasing quasi-zonal
flow will push the dryline that has been present over much of the
central Permian Basin the past few days well to the east of the
area. Accompanying this dryline passage beginning Monday afternoon
will be increasing southwesterly winds, clearer skies, and a
warming trend Monday into Thursday as subtle mid-level ridging
also builds in. No rain is expected for the rest of the long term
until at least Friday. A cold front will move in from the north
Thursday, with cooler temperatures expected to close out next
week.

Highs will be below normal Sunday due to lingering cloud and rain
chances, with widespread low to mid 80s and 90s confined to parts
of the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande valleys. Monday through
Thursday will see highs above normal with widespread upper 80s and
90s, and reaching triple digit readings near the Rio Grande.
Highs Friday will be near to below average following the passage
of a cold front, with mainly 80s and higher readings in the 90s
confined to the Trans Pecos, Terrell County, and along the Rio
Grande in the valleys. Lows will be above normal for early May
throughout the long term with widespread 60s, aside from 50s in
higher elevations and northern portions of the SE NM plains and
Permian Basin, each night from Saturday night into Thursday night.
Lows Friday night will be closer to normal and feature 50s for
most places north and east of the Pecos River, most of the SE NM
plains and higher elevations across West Texas, and 60s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A weak cold front is sagging southward into the area, while the
dryline is starting to retreat westward, resulting in some fairly
variable winds. Sustained speeds tonight are expected to remain
under 12kt, with winds expected to settle out of the E/SE by
morning. Winds will shift to the S/SE, becoming gusty during the
afternoon, with gusts sticking around into the evening for
MAF/INK/FST where the low-level jet will come into play. MVFR
ceilings are progged to develop into the area late tonight,
though have only included mention at MAF where confidence is
highest. VFR conditions will return to MAF by around 14Z, with VFR
conditions otherwise prevailing. Thunderstorms are possible,
mainly during the 21Z-02Z time frame for MAF/FST, but will defer
to later issuances for potential TS mention.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

ERCs 90th percentile or higher over most of Eddy County and
southwest of the Pecos River will result in critically dry fuels
fuels. This afternoon, RFTIs of 3-5 present from Sacramento
Foothills into Chaves, Eddy, and Lea Counties in Southeast New
Mexico into the Guadalupe Mountains and eastern Culberson County,
along with min RH from 6 to 10 percent and highs 5 to 8 degrees
above normal for this time of year in the upper 80s and lower 90s,
have prompted a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement to be issued for
these regions from this afternoon through this evening.

Rain east of the Pecos River and lack of gusty winds likely
constrain fire weather risk Saturday into Sunday. However, fire
weather risk increases again Monday afternoon and continues into
next Thursday as near zero rain chances are present for much of
the area, dewpoints decrease over much of the area, widespread min
critical RH develops each afternoon Monday into Thursday, and
gusty southwesterly winds develop over much of the SE NM plains
into the mountains and western Permian Basin in West Texas each
afternoon from Monday into Thursday. This will all contribute to
widespread RFTIs in the 3-6 range west and southwest of the Pecos
River Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoons. In
addition to all of this, highs and lows 5 to 10 degrees above
normal and mainly in the 90s and 60s, respectively, as well as
poor overnight recovery over much of the area from Monday into
Thursday morning, will dry out fuels even more. Depending on
extent and amount of rainfall today into Sunday, eastward extent
of fire weather risk is still uncertain at this time. Still, near
critical fire weather conditions are likely today and this
weekend over southwesternmost Eddy County and West Texas, and
critical fire weather conditions Monday into Thursday next week
expected over the SE NM plains, much of the area southwest of the
Pecos River and west of a line from Gaines County into central
Pecos County into western Terrell County, each afternoon from
Monday into Thursday.

Behind a cold front moving in from the north at the end of next
week, increased dewpoints, better overnight recovery Friday
morning, and decreasing eastward extent of min critical RH all
yield a decrease in fire risk for the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  63  79  60 /  40  40  80  80
Carlsbad                 92  60  84  58 /   0  10  20  50
Dryden                   92  68  85  67 /  20  10  30  50
Fort Stockton            92  66  89  63 /  30  20  50  60
Guadalupe Pass           83  59  79  57 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                    89  59  79  56 /  10  10  50  60
Marfa                    87  54  89  52 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport     90  63  81  60 /  30  30  60  80
Odessa                   90  64  82  62 /  30  30  60  80
Wink                     93  66  87  62 /  10  10  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84