Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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158 FXUS64 KMAF 122020 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 320 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Clouds have cleared most of the area this afternoon as winds have veered to the west and drier air mixes to the surface. Temperatures have responded to the sunshine and have climbed well into the 80s. After a quiet night with lows near normal our attention turn to the north as an upper trough slides across the Plains. This system will push a front south across the region throughout the day. With sunny skies and little to no cooling behind the front expect high temperatures to be very similar to today. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Upper ridging remains in control for Tuesday, leading to another quiet, warm, and dry day. By Wednesday morning, return flow helps to sharpen and shove the dryline back along/west of the Pecos River. We`re still eyeing up the next trough to swing over Baja into northern Mexico Wednesday but this feature has trended a bit slower compared to previous model runs. While synoptic ascent (and shear) may be more limited with a slower trough, convergence along the dryline should still be enough to get a few storms going as supported by the NBM and ensemble clusters that argue a 55-70% chance of rain across the Permian Basin. While shear may be limited, CAPE should be high enough to warrant a few severe storms. We`ll continue to have a better grasp on Wednesday`s possible storms as we get a little closer. The next cold front is also set to arrive sometime on Thursday and could stretch rain chances through Thursday across the northern and eastern Permian Basin. After the warm day on Tuesday, temperatures take a slight dip on Wednesday with the added clouds/storm potential before a more noticeable cool down comes for Thursday with the front. This cooldown is likely short-lived as late-week ridging takes us right back into the 90s by Saturday. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR has returned to all terminals and will prevail through the period. Gusty west winds will subside this evening before veering to the north behind a cold front just before sunrise Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 58 86 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 57 87 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 94 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 60 89 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 57 80 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 53 85 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 49 84 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 58 86 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 59 86 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 58 90 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...29