Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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486 FXUS64 KMAF 092201 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 501 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over southeast Utah, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front lies menacingly just north of KMAF, hung up due to increasing westerlies and diurnal heating. This will allow pleasant temperatures this afternoon before the front resumes its southwesterly intrusion with loss of diurnal heating. The Latest NAM puts it down near the border by 12Z Friday. Despite this, overnight minimums should remain a couple of degrees above normal. The more pronounced cooling sets in Friday as CAA continues in the wake of the front, and clouds increase. Highs look to come in ~ 8- 10F below normal. Models are persistent in developing convection early in the lower Trans Pecos, spreading north and west during the day in upslope flow and along the front. This, along with cooler temperatures, will bring a respite to critical fire weather. Friday night, the dryline will retreat beyond KELP. The upper trough will begin approaching from the west, and large-scale ascent will expand convection westward, hopefully bringing much-=needed relief to the drought-stricken higher terrain. Lows should come in 2-4F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 We find ourselves still in the post-frontal setup on Saturday with persistent east-southeasterly flow supplying ample moisture (Td ~55- 60 CWA-wide) and shoving the dryline back near El Paso`s longitude. Meanwhile, the upper low left freely spinning across the Great Basin finally gets picked up by the jet stream and ejects towards AZ/NM. While this trough doesn`t provide much in the form of synoptic ascent, some steeping of the lapse rates could lead to some instability to work with. The stationary front draped just south/west of the Pecos Valley along with easterly upslope surface flow and southwesterly flow aloft should help get some showers and storms going as early as Saturday morning. The ensembles and NBM maintain the thinking in achieving appreciable rainfall with a 60- 80% chance of seeing at least 0.1" and 50-60% of seeing over an inch. With some steeping of the lapse rates with the approaching trough, some severe weather is possible, especially south of the stalled boundary. Surfaced based storms here could see isolated instances of large hail and strong winds. North of the stalled front, convection will still be possible but with it being elevated nature, severe weather chances will be very low (but still possible). It seems there will be 2 main round of rain this weekend associated with the ejecting trough- the first round comes Saturday morning into the early afternoon with a second round of rain for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Per usual, the highest precipitation chances and greatest rainfall totals will likely set up across the eastern Permian Basin, though areas of convective rainfall could lead to local maxima in precip. As the trough swings through Sunday, subsidence and drier air brings an end to the rain chances late Sunday with quieter conditions following on Monday and Tuesday with weak ridging. Temperatures on Saturday will be largely driven by the expectation of thick cloud cover and the rainfall chances which will likely lead to a pleasantly cool day. High temperatures likely are limited to the 60s and low 70s in areas of clouds and rain with 80s and 90s focused along the Rio Grande. A rapid rebound come son Thursday with clearing skies in the afternoon allowing for highs in the 80s for most. Conditions stay seasonably warm on Monday and Tuesday with the upper ridge before the next cold front looks to arrive sometime in the middle part of the week. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 455 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Surface analysis shows the cold front still stalled just northeast of the terminals at 22Z. This will resume surging southwest w/loss of daytime heating, w/the latest NAM pegging fropa at KMAF at 00Z, and clearing the other terminals by 06Z. Latest NBM brings in a bit more MVFR stratus for a longer period Friday morning, but cigs should lift to VFR mid-afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Near-critical conditions have developed this afternoon primarily across the western high terrain where very dry and breezy conditions linger. Fortunately, a cold front sweeps into the region this evening, brining much better moisture into the area and some relief to fire weather conditions. Rain and thunderstorm chances overspread the region Saturday into Sunday, with the hope that wetting rains can bring some much-needed relief to the ERCs which are exceeding the 75th percentile for a majority of the area. Dry air and elevated fire weather may return out west for Sunday. -Munyan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 58 78 59 68 / 0 20 20 80 Carlsbad 56 75 58 71 / 0 10 40 70 Dryden 66 80 64 77 / 10 40 40 60 Fort Stockton 61 76 62 75 / 10 30 40 80 Guadalupe Pass 54 69 55 69 / 0 10 40 70 Hobbs 54 75 55 66 / 0 10 30 80 Marfa 50 80 54 81 / 0 20 40 70 Midland Intl Airport 59 77 59 68 / 0 20 30 80 Odessa 60 77 60 68 / 0 20 30 80 Wink 60 76 61 73 / 0 10 40 80 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44