749
FXUS64 KMAF 120826
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
326 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

An upper level low near the Four Corners region will move east into
the central Great Plains today. The low will drag an upper trough
across West Texas pushing drier air into the western Permian Basin.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to form in the moist and
unstable air in the eastern Basin and there will be enough shear
that one or two could become severe in the Big Spring/ Snyder/
Colorado City area. The timing is not favorable for significant
severe weather as the dry air moves through the entire area before
peak afternoon heating so the severe threat will be limited.
Clearing skies today will help temperatures heat back up to near
normal with highs in the 80s and 90s. Dry air and clear skies help
lows drop into the 50s tonight and similar and seasonal
temperatures are expected again on Monday with no chance for rain.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Conditions remain dry heading into Tuesday with a weak ridge moving
across the Plains. The brief rise in heights brings temperatures
above normal into the low 90s for most. Wednesday sees the approach
of an upper low from the west. A dryline takes shape to the west of
Midland/Odessa with guidance continuing to agree on favorable
conditions for severe weather to develop. Much can change over the
next few days, so stay tuned as the details become clearer. The
passage of the aforementioned low pushes a front into the region for
Thursday bringing temperatures just below average for areas north of
I-10. The end of the week and into next weekend will be dry and warm
as temperatures rebound back above normal.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

IFR/MVFR CIGs have redeveloped across the terminals. Current
conditions are likely to be the worst of the TAF period before
improving near and just after 12Z when westerly winds push
moisture west and VFR remains through the remainder of the TAF
period. Gusty westerly winds will create light low level
turbulence for GA aircraft.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  57  87  57 /  30   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 87  56  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   95  65  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            92  60  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           77  57  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    85  54  85  55 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    84  49  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  57  88  59 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   88  59  88  60 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     91  57  90  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10