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000
FXUS64 KMAF 281052
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
552 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

After a busy evening for eastern portions of the area we are in the
clear for a couple of days. A Pacific front has shoved all low level
moisture well east of the area. West winds will be much lighter this
afternoon as the pressure gradient finally weakens. Highs will be a
couple of degrees cooler today for most locations, but still near
normal for late April. The dry air will lead to a comfortable night
with lows by Monday morning in the 40s/50s. Monday looks quiet as
well with fairly light winds again and highs climbing closer to 90
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Zonal flow aloft on Tuesday gradually backs to southwesterly for
Wednesday and Thursday as a trough swings through the central
Rockies into the central Plains. Lee troughing induced by the zonal
flow helps pull the dryline back west of the Permian Basin by
Tuesday morning. Without much synoptic aid, widespread storms aren`t
expected but a few weak storms are possible in the eastern zones
Tuesday evening. More rounds of storms are possible off the dryline
both on Wednesday and Thursday with a bit more ascent as the
aforementioned trough moves a little closer. Still, this feature is
too far north to provide much help and storm coverage may only be a
touch higher than Tuesday. The real effect of the trough is going to
be a notable cold front sent into our region Thursday night. The
front essentially washes out the dryline and with east-southeast
flow instilled late Friday, brings good moisture back into the
area. This is just in time for the next shortwave set to approach
on Friday-Saturday, which could be the next wholesome chance for
good rainfall for a larger portion of the area. Ensembles are
always optimistic at these time ranges...so we`ll see how the
forecast trends the next few days.

As for temperatures, the low level thermal ridge reigns dominant
for the middle part of the week and hot temperatures are the
result, especially behind the dryline. Much needed relief comes
with the strong cold front Thursday night that takes high
temperatures from the upper 80s and 90s on Thursday into the 70s
and 80s for Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR prevails with westerly winds through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               81  54  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 81  51  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   89  59  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            84  56  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           71  52  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    78  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    76  44  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     80  54  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   80  56  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     84  53  90  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...29