407
FXUS63 KAPX 301922
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
322 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances for showers Saturday.

- Better chances of precipitation return next week. Best chance
  of showers and thunderstorms remains on Monday evening.

- Temperatures gradually warm through the weekend, peaking in
  the 70s and 80s Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

1025 mb high pressure is centered across the region. This
system will slowly drift off to the east through Friday. Return
flow develops very late tonight on into Friday. Skies are
expected to remain clear through tonight with increasing high
clouds Friday afternoon (cirrus). The airmass will remain dry
and combine with the clear skies and nearly calm winds to
promote excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight. Full
green-up conditions are expected to inhibit temperatures from
totally tanking. Inland low lying spots will again be
susceptible to some frost (similar to last night) but not
expecting a widespread frost event. Lows generally ranging
through the 30s to around 40. Warmer Friday with highs ranging
from the middle 70s to around 80 but as usual it will be cooler
near the lakeshores.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Midlevel shortwave ridging continues to build across the
central U.S/Upper Midwest pushing quiet and mild weather for the
Great Lakes Region. Upstream troughing spanned over the western
half of North America will return a more active weather pattern
at times next week.

The midlevel ridge will continue to occupy the Great Lakes Region
starting the forecast period off dry the fist half of Saturday.
Aforementioned troughing will stretch/elongate and center its
axis over Lake Superior (while weakening). Embedded height
disturbances will push showers and even some thunderstorms from
time to time for the remainder of the forecast period, but no
heavy rainfall or severe weather expected at this time.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Slight chances of precipitation return next week. Best chance
 of showers and thunderstorms remain on Monday evening: The long
 term period starts off dry as a weak trough/quasi zonal flow
 pattern builds across the region. Chances of precipitation
 returning Saturday remain low across the CWA. Current guidance
 is hinting at H8 winds along with moisture bifurcating around
 the lower penisula as energy crosses Lake Michigan. A few areas
 could see a some showers, especially the U.P and areas
 downstate, but only a 10th or so of measurable liquid can be
 expected inside the CWA. Low level moisture increases this
 Monday providing a better convective environment for a boundary
 passing northern Michigan this Monday. PWATs remain near
 climatological average for Monday so no heavy rainfall is
 expected but a good soaking of rain with embedded thunderstorms
 will impact most locations.

-Watching for better storm system development next week:
Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over Alaska will
progress southeast and make its way to the Great Lakes region by
the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Latest guidance supports a
better synoptically driven system to push showers and storms
through the CWA, but to early to message details or impacts (if
any), but continued precip can be expected to carry through the
remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR cigs/vsbys expected through the taf period. The one possible
exception would be some patchy ground fog late tonight but that
is not expected at this time. Perhaps some cirrus toward the end
of the taf period. Winds are expected to be light overall, but
with gusty lake breezes possible during the afternoons.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...AJS