Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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057 FXUS63 KBIS 060800 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of windy conditions is on tap for today, especially northwest, central, and east. Sustained northwest winds up to 30 mph and gusts to 50 mph are expected. - A weak wave will bring a slight chance of showers to the north central and James River Valley on Friday. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible over the James River Valley in the late afternoon or early evening. - Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions through the weekend with near to slightly below normal temperatures. A better chance for precipitation then returns Monday afternoon and evening. - Much warmer temperatures will be possible by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Western and central North Dakota sits under the influence of northwest flow aloft with an upper low to the east centered over southwest Ontario, and a broad western US ridge to the west. A strong surface pressure gradient will keep winds elevated through much of the short term; increasing once again through the morning and afternoon. There is no strong pressure bubble or cold air advection signal in the various models, but forecast soundings do suggest inverted V profiles with a deep mixed layer. RAP and NAM soundings suggest the potential for 40 to 50 knots at the top of the mixed layer so it seems likely that we will see some sustained northwest winds to 30 mph and gusts to 50 mph. It is worth noting that the EFI suggests the potential for borderline High Wind Warning criteria over our northeast but will hold off for now as forecast soundings are just not showing that potential at the moment. What we did decide to do is put out a new Wind Advisory for portions of the northwest, the central, and the east from 13z to 00z. Winds should start to diminish quickly as we approach the early evening hours and sunset. Most guidance is now suggesting that the upper flow will flatten a bit on Friday as a weak wave rides down the ridge. This will lead to low chances for showers (20 to 30 percent) over the north central and into the James River Valley. While instability will be limited, we may see enough buoyancy across the south for a stray thunderstorm or two in the late afternoon or early evening over the James River Valley. Friday will also see the return of some warmer temperatures with highs across the southwest and south central forecast to be back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Elsewhere, expect highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Low amplitude ridging will move across the state on Saturday as some low rain shower chances linger across the north cental and northeast. Highs will be similar on Saturday and Sunday, ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. By Sunday night, we start to transition back into southwest flow aloft with the approach of the next wave. While we still have a ways to go regarding specifics, the global models and ensembles are suggesting the potential for some decent instability/shear overlap on Monday. Thus, there may be a window for a few strong to severe storms depending on how the pattern evolves through the weekend and into next week. Monday may also mark the beginning of our next major warmup. Monday`s highs are forecast to range from the lower 70s to the lower 80s and then by Wednesday, NBM output shows widespread highs ranging from the upper 70s to the upper 80s. It should be noted that substantial spread is introduced in the NBM temperature forecast starting Sunday, likely illustrating the uncertainty regarding how the eventual pattern evolves. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period. Breezy northwest winds will continue to be possible through the night. However, windy conditions will once again develop during the day on Thursday, especially across the central and east. Gusts to 50 mph will be possible. Winds will diminish towards sunset Thursday evening. Some enhanced low level wind shear will also be possible at KBIS through mid Thursday morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-019>023-025- 034>037-042-045>048-050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...ZH AVIATION...ZH