397
FXUS62 KCAE 051758
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
158 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper disturbance will move into the region today
supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon
and into the early evening hours. A cold front will move across
the Southeast Thursday increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Drier air follows the front late this week into
the weekend. Another cold front possible early next week, with
rain potential increasing ahead of it late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV and satellite shows s/w energy moving across GA this
afternoon and convection continues to develop across the
Midlands and CSRA. Mesoanalysis shows a very moist airmass
across the area with PW values in the 1.8 to 1.9 inches. Mixed
layer SBCAPE is around 1000 j/kg increasing to around 1500 j/kg
during the afternoon. LI values have continued to decrease
through the early afternoon hours.

Forecast soundings exhibit a moist adiabatic look with the high
atmospheric moisture and not unexpectedly, DCAPE values are
modest around 400-500 J/kg but given the isolated severe storms
from Tuesday cannot rule out isolated pulse severe once again
this afternoon. The main threat will once again be damaging
winds and some localized flooding where storms train and in
urban areas. Temperatures are again expected to rise into the
mid and upper 80s to around 90 degrees through the afternoon.

Convection may linger into the overnight hours as shortwave
energy moves through the region but should wane after midnight
with the noctural stabilization of the atmosphere. Low
temperatures expected to be in the upper 60s to around 70
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A positively tilted upper trough is forecast to be located over the
Southeast Thursday morning. At the surface, a cold front that is
associated with an upper low over the Great Lakes is anticipated to
be near the Tennessee River Valley in the morning. Both of these
features are forecast to move eastward through the day, bringing the
chance for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to
the area after a lull in the action in the morning. Latest hi-res
guidance continues a downward trend in the precipitation chances
through the day. However, I suspect there will be remnant boundaries
from the convection that occurs today, which could be triggers for
development. So, still think there`s a medium chance (30-50%) of
showers and storms to develop. PWATs are expected to remain high
ahead of the cold front, leading to the potential for heavy
downpours at times. Forecast soundings show that the temperature
will likely be an inverted V, which is indicative of a threat for
strong winds. While the severe threat overall is low for any storms
Thursday, some of the stronger storms could produce some stronger
winds (>40 mph) and small hail. The cold front is expected to pass
through the area during the overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier air is expected to be ushered in behind the cold front for
Friday and through at least the first half of the weekend, which
leads to high confidence (80%) in fair weather for Friday and
Saturday. Some uncertainty begins to settle into the forecast
beginning on Sunday into early next week as models indicate a front
is forecast to slide south, bringing some chances for more rain.
There are some significant differences in the model solutions with
this feature as well as an upper level low, resulting in low
confidence in the forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected over the 24 hr forecast
period outside of showers or thunderstorms and possible morning
stratus.

The regional radar continues to show convection developing
across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area. Have
mentioned vcsh with a tempo period from 19z to 23z at all TAF
sites for the remainder of this afternoon. Shortwave energy will
continue to move eastward across the CWA and expect additional
shra/tsra into the early evening hours. Cigs also remain VFR in
the 4k to 10kt feet range, except for in convection with periods
of MVFR/IFR. Overnight, there will be a weak low level jet from
20 to 25 kts, this will help prevent widespread fog. Expect
some patchy areas of fog and low clouds late tonight into early
Thursday morning. Winds will be from the SSW and SW through the
period near 10 kts, except gusting to 25 kts or higher in
thunderstorms. Will have the chance for additional convection by
late morning on Thursday as a cold front approaches the region.
No mention in the TAFS, but will hold conditions VFR.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through Thursday with intermittent
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...