448
FXUS62 KCAE 041524
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1124 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases across the Southeast through mid week leading
to scattered convection each afternoon. A cold front will move
across the Southeast Thursday increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Drier air follows the front late this week into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak upper ridge axis over the forecast area this morning is
expected to shift to the east today giving way to weak shortwave
energy over the MS Valley moving east into the region this
afternoon. Surface high pressure remains centered over the
eastern Atlantic with south to southwesterly low level flow
keeping a warm moist feed into the forecast area. Atmospheric
moisture remains high with mesoanalysis showing PWATs around
1.4-1.5 inches and forecast to rise to 1.6-1.8 inches by 00z.

Expect a day similar to yesterday with scattered convection
developing early afternoon in peak heating with slightly better
coverage aided by some weak upper support interacting with the
above normal moisture in a moderately unstable environment as
forecast by ensembles showing 50-70% of members showing
probability of CAPE > 1000 J/kg. Overall wind shear remains
quite weak so unorganized convection is expected with minimal
severe threat. The slower storm motion and high PWATs could
provide intense rainfall rates and a possible localized flooding
threat in vulnerable areas or areas where storms train over the
same area. Highest instability is focused along and north of
the I-20 corridor and have focused highest pops in the upper
CSRA and western Midlands with a gradient to lower chances
eastern Midlands. Due to the weak shortwave energy in the area
cannot rule out showers continuing into the overnight hours
especially over the western Midlands so will keep some pops in
the forecast through the night.

Temperatures today should again be warm ranging from the mid to
upper 80s west to around 90 degrees east. Convective debris
clouds will likely delay radiational cooling tonight but
temperatures eventually should fall into the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday may start off with isolated showers across the western
cwa, but as the day progresses the activity will become more
scattered with the heating of the day and some shortwave energy
aloft moving across the region. By Thursday, a weak cold front
will begin approaching the region from the west. This will
increase pwat values ahead of the front, and keep scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast until the front pushes
through late Thursday night. Severe threat appears minimal at
this point. Temperatures remaining warm each day, with highs in
the mid to upper 80s Wednesday, then around 90 for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expecting a cold front to move through the region Friday,
bringing lower pwat values and drier air back to to the region
for the weekend. Depending on where the front is located Friday
morning, there could still be enough moisture to bring isolated
showers across the eastern cwa. Even so, majority of the day
will be dry. As for temperatures, with downsloping winds
expected behind the front, readings will still remain near
normal into the weekend. The return of isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms should occur by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected over the 24 hr forecast
period.

FEW-SCT clouds AOA 3kft MSL with cirrus above. Expecting another SCT
SHRA/TSRA today, mainly after 04/18Z. SFC winds southwest around 5
to 8 kts, with a few erratic gusts possible in/near SHRA/TSRA.
Storms may impact terminals but timing and location of storms still
uncertain at this time. Convective debris clouds through the evening
may give way to some CIG restrictions late tonight due to abundant
low level moisture.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through Friday with intermittent
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$