949
FXUS62 KCHS 041749
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
149 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday, then
slowly move through on Friday. High pressure returns for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon: Radar finally showing some isolated showers
developing well inland, over extreme northern Allendale county.
The seabreeze is also developing, but no sign of any convection
yet along it. It seems it needs to push a little further inland
to potentially interact with other low level boundaries before
possibly developing isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low level
southerly winds still pretty light inland, but starting to pick
up from the south-southeast along the coast with the seabreeze.
Winds at the coast/beaches expected to be 10-15 mph with some
higher gusts, and 5-10 mph elsewhere. High temperatures still
expected to flirt with 90 inland, and mid to upper 80s closer
to the coast.

There is a weak upper level vort moving across the
west/northwest portion of the are later this afternoon, and
combined with modest mix-layered CAPE values of 1,000-1,500
J/kg, there is a small chance for an isolated strong storm with
gusty winds to develop. Best chances for any isolated to
scattered storms will be inland as the seabreeze pushes west and
possibly collides with other low level boundaries.

Tonight: Early evening convection should mostly favor inland
areas and steadily dissipate through the late evening hours. The
rest of the overnight is then expected to be dry. Lows are
forecast to be in the upper 60s inland and the low 70s along the
coast. Though there aren`t any significant fog concerns, some
guidance would suggest potential for shallow ground fog across
the far interior late in the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A relatively active pattern is anticipated during the period. A
weak upper trough will persist with a series of shortwaves
rippling through. Fairly deep southerly flow will maintain a
moist airmass Wednesday and Thursday with PWATs around 1.85". A
sea breeze each afternoon will provide an additional focus for
convective development. The greatest convective coverage is
expected to be inland.

Friday, a cold front sags into the area, with deep westerly
flow developing during the day. Compression ahead of the front
is expected to produce a warm day with highs in the low to mid
90s. Drier air will move in during the morning. This, combined
with mid-level subsidence, should limit convective coverage.
However, given the cold front, we kept 20-30% PoPs, highest
farther to the south where better moisture will exist.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Although temps will remain fairly warm this weekend, the
airmass will noticeably change due to substantially lower
dewpoints. This should also limit the potential for convection.
An increase in moisture early next week and some shortwave
energy will bring a return to scattered diurnal convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rest of today and tonight: VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. The best chance for an isolated
afternoon shower/thunderstorm is expected to be around KSAV, but
changes are less than 20%.

Wednesday: Increasing chances for afternoon showers/thunderstorms.
Given 20-30% chances for convection start at the end of the
current TAF period (18z Wed), have decided to leave mention out
for now.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Outside of any convection,
conditions will be VFR through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
This afternoon: No significant changes were made to the
previous forecast. Generally southeast winds of 5 to 15 knots,
strongest near the coast with the seabreeze. There could be some
gusts of 15 to 20 knots near the coast later this afternoon.
Seas expected to average 2-3 feet.

Tonight: Continued relatively quiet with southeast winds of 5 to
10 knots. Could see isolated late night showers/thunderstorms,
especially beyond 20 nm offshore.

Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will remain over the
western Atlantic Wednesday through Thursday night, maintaining
southerly flow at or below 15 kt, seas at or below 4 ft, and a
daily sea breeze circulation along the coast. A cold front will
move through on Friday, with winds turning W over the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are on the rise this week. Although wind
direction is not particularly favorable for surge, we continue
to see a positive tidal anomaly of 0.5 to 0.7 ft. The evening
high tides today through Thursday could reach at least 7.0 ft
MLLW in Charleston, necessitating Coastal Flood Advisories.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/RFM
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH/JRL/RFM
MARINE...BSH/JRL/RFM