Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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372 FXUS61 KCLE 240458 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1258 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build overhead for Monday and Tuesday. Low pressure over Ontario will drag another cold front east across the area on Wednesday before high pressure returns for the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1230 AM Update... Adjustments were made to the extent of lake enhanced showers impacting northern Ohio to include some counties a bit further west than previously forecast. These will gradually shift east this morning. Adjustments were also made to temperatures to reflect current observations which are a bit warmer than previously thought with temperatures lingering in the upper 60s to low 70s. No other adjustments were needed with this update. 920 PM Update... Scattered light lake-enhanced rain showers over Lake Erie are approaching NE OH and NW PA, so maintained low rain chances through tonight. No changes needed with this update. Previous Discussion... Low pressure over Quebec will continue to drag a cold front east across northern Ohio through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of the cold front this afternoon under a fairly moist and increasingly unstable environment. Dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s and substantial clearing support a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg of surface based CAPE over north central and northeast Ohio. Expect current storm clusters to become more organized as they push eastward into eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania later this afternoon and early evening. The best potential for severe storms will likely occur just east of the local area, but can`t rule out any stronger storms approaching severe limits as they exit the CWA in the next few hours. Primary threat in any strong to severe storm will be damaging wind gusts. Strong to severe storm threat will diminish this evening as the front exits to the east. Wrap around moisture and broad scale northwest flow behind the front will support some lingering lake enhanced rain showers across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through Monday morning. High pressure builds overhead behind the cold front and will bring dry weather to the region to begin the work week. Near normal temperatures return through the near term with overnight lows settling in the low 60s each night with high temperatures on Monday rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Slightly cooler across Northwest Pennsylvania on Monday night as lows drop into the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The heat and humidity will quickly surge back into the region Tuesday as broad mid/upper ridging flexes back northeastward from the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley in response to a mid/upper shortwave trough approaching the northern Great Lakes. The surface high will shift east to the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning allowing a warm front to lift into northern Ohio with accompanying warm air advection as 850 mb thermal ridging of 21 C noses in from the southwest. The latest operational NAM, GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF runs suggest a weak, convectively enhanced shortwave dropping southeastward through the southern Great Lakes on the northeast periphery of the ridge Tuesday morning. This could support a decaying MCS riding along the warm frontal boundary/theta e gradient where warm/moist theta e advection will be maximized on the nose of a roughly 30 knot low-level jet. Pattern recognition supports an MCS, but a fairly stable airmass will be in place northeast of the warm front, so the complex should either be weakening as stated above or elevated. This should generally prevent any severe weather unless stronger elevated convection can produce some hail. The main impact will be to the temperature and cloud forecast. Morning clouds and showers associated with the complex could hang around into the afternoon and hold temperatures down a few degrees, so went a bit cooler in NE Ohio and NW PA (mid/upper 80s). Highs in the 90s are still a solid bet in NW Ohio though, and have upper 80s to low 90s from north central Ohio through NW Ohio. The humidity will be on the rise through the day as dew points return to the 60s. Moving into Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid/upper shortwave trough will progress through the central Great Lakes leading to a deepening longwave trough over the Great Lakes and NE U.S. The associated surface low will pass well to the north across northern Ontario and Quebec, but the trailing cold front will sink across the region Wednesday as the troughing aloft deepens. This front and the dynamics associated with the digging mid/upper trough will generate additional showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night and Wednesday, so have elevated PoPs both periods. Timing of the front seems to be trending faster, with a Wednesday morning to midday frontal passage. This combined with widespread clouds and showers Wednesday may limit the severe potential, but given the dynamics, it could still be a fairly active day Wednesday since the boundary will be slowly sagging through a juicy airmass with PWATs nearing 2 inches. The strength of the thermodynamics will be determined by how much heating can occur as well as timing of the front. Much cooler and drier air will filter in Wednesday night as surface high pressure starts to build in from the northern Great Lakes. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s Wednesday with muggy conditions. Lows Tuesday night will stay in the upper 60s to low 70s, cooling into the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid/upper troughing will remain across the Great Lakes and NE U.S. Thursday with surface ridging centered over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will support mostly sunny skies and pleasantly cool conditions with highs in the mid/upper 70s Thursday and lows in the mid/upper 50s Thursday night. Low 50s will even occur in NW PA Thursday night! The active pattern will quickly return for the end of the week into next weekend as a strong northern stream mid/upper trough progresses from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains Friday before deepening across the Great Lakes by Sunday. In response, mid/upper ridging will rapidly flex back north and eastward Friday and Saturday as the surface high repositions along the Mid Atlantic coast. This will lead to a warm front lifting across the region Friday, opening the door to strong warm air advection and hot, humid conditions once again. Timing of showers and thunderstorms is very uncertain this far out, but have gradually increasing PoPs Friday night and Saturday in the hot and likely unstable airmass. The best chance will likely hold off until the cold frontal passage Saturday night or Sunday, which will be the next potential for strong to severe storms. Highs will warm into the mid/upper 80s Friday with upper 80s/low 90s Saturday before cooling into the upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... A surface trough lingering over the area has resulted in northwest flow crossing Lake Erie and producing scattered lake enhanced showers. Confidence in the placement and timing and these showers remains low so opted to keep any mention of showers out at this point. The base of the lake enhanced clouds are also hovering near MVFR conditions, which have the potential to impact terminals along and east of I-71. Have opted to handle this lowering of ceilings with a TEMPO over the next couple hours. By this morning, all terminals should rebound to VFR conditions and persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Northwest winds of 5-10 knots will persist through today before becoming light and variable tonight. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Winds and waves will be at their peak on Lake Erie this afternoon and early evening when W to WSW winds of 15-25 knots are expected with occasionally higher gusts. This will generate 2 to 5 foot waves, with the highest being in the central and eastern basins. This will elevate rip current risks. The winds will gradually subside this evening and tonight behind the cold front, shifting to NNW at 15-20 knots. It still looks reasonable for the Small Craft Advisory to end on the western basin at 00Z, but higher waves will keep the need for Small Craft headlines and Beach Hazards statements through at least 09Z in the central and eastern basins since it will take longer for the waves to drop below 4 feet. It`s possible that the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement will need to be extended farther into Monday morning from Conneaut to Ripley, but confidence is too low at this point. Quieter conditions are then expected on the lake the rest of the week outside of thunderstorms. Winds will become W and decrease to 5- 10 knots late Monday before becoming SW at 10-20 knots late Monday night through early Wednesday. Winds then turn W to NW late Wednesday and NNW Wednesday night behind a cold front while decrease to 10-15 knots. Light E to NE winds are then expected Thursday and Friday as Canadian high pressure drifts from the Great Lakes into New England. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ010>012. Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for OHZ089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for PAZ001. NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ145>147. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ148- 149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Campbell/Iverson/Maines SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...Garuckas