750
FXUS64 KFWD 290949
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
449 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New Long Term, Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable conditions will continue through this upcoming week
  with highs in the 90s and heat indices up to 100-105 in many
  areas each afternoon.

- There are low chances for storms most days this week, mainly
  during the afternoons. Best chances will be on Monday and
  Tuesday across North Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Wind gusts have been slightly higher overnight from the low-level
jet, but aside from slight adjustments for current trends, no
notable updates were needed from the previous forecast.

JLDunn


Previous Discussion:
/Sunday and Sunday Night/

The easiest way to explain today`s weather is simply: a near
repeat of yesterday. Quiet and seasonable weather is expected
through Sunday night with some seabreeze-induced convection in our
far south and southeastern counties this afternoon.

Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate the region,
even as a small shortwave trough approaches from our northwest
later today. This shortwave will contribute to convection in the
Texas Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday
morning, but all of this precipitation is expected to remain well
outside of our area. The only chances for rain/storms we have in
our area will be in our far south and southeastern counties where
there is about a 20% of isolated to scattered seabreeze
convection this afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, but
lightning and gusty winds can be expected with any afternoon
storms.

Otherwise, expected a mix of high clouds and afternoon cumulus
through the period. High temperatures today will range from the
lower 90s in our southeast to the upper 90s in our northwest. Heat
index values will largely range from 99-103 degrees this afternoon
which could result in heat related illnesses for those who have to
be or choose to be outside during peak heating. Overnight lows
will be in the lower to mid 70s Sunday night.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night Onward/

An unseasonably strong upper trough sweeping through the Plains
will nudge a weak cold front south across the Red River on Monday.
The front will then stall somewhere between I-20 and the Red
River, providing focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development across North Texas during the early to midweek period.
The best storm chances at this time look to be late Monday into
early Tuesday, when synoptic scale ascent associated with the
upper trough is strongest. Severe weather is unlikely, but gusty
winds and frequent lightning will accompany the stronger storms.
The late Monday/Tuesday convection will leave a weakness in the
500mb ridge aloft, which will keep the potential for afternoon
storms going into Wednesday. POPs will be limited to 30 percent,
however, due to the front becoming diffuse and lifting north of
the forecast area by then.

The ridge aloft will begin to strengthen on Thursday as an upper
low develops over southern California. This would normally shut
down any convective attempts, but a shortwave lifting north around
the western flank of the ridge will lead to more development
across the western half of the forecast area Thursday afternoon
and evening. Some of this activity may cross the I-35 corridor
overnight before dissipating Friday morning. The ridge will
continue to slowly strengthen on Friday, but the remnants of the
West Coast low (which will be much weaker after encountering the
ridge) may still kick off a few isolated afternoon and evening
storms. POPs are below 20 percent at the moment, but just high
enough to warrant checking back for forecast updates if any July
4th activities are planned. Outside of any convection or
associated outflow, seasonably hot days and warm, humid nights can
otherwise be expected through next weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12 TAFs/

The low-level jet induced slightly stronger wind gusts overnight
at times, but winds of 10-13 kts with occasional higher gusts are
expected during the day today. South to southeast winds will
prevail, but the winds will shift more to the southwest on Monday
morning.

Stratus is again developing across the Hill Country this morning,
and a brief period of BKN MVFR cigs at KACT is still expected
between 13-15Z. A few strands of low level stratus may also be
seen at the Metroplex airports through late morning, but no
impacts are expected. Otherwise, VFR will prevail with a mix of
high clouds and afternoon cumulus. Seabreeze induced convection is
expected to remain south of KACT, but could impact southerly
departure routes from mid to late afternoon.

JLDunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  78  96  77  94 /   0   5  20  20  30
Waco                95  75  95  75  95 /   0   0  10  10  20
Paris               93  75  94  73  92 /   5   5  20  30  30
Denton              96  76  96  74  93 /   0   5  20  30  30
McKinney            96  77  95  75  93 /   0   5  20  30  30
Dallas              96  78  97  78  96 /   0   5  20  20  30
Terrell             94  75  95  75  95 /   0   0  10  20  20
Corsicana           95  76  95  76  96 /   5   0  10  10  20
Temple              96  74  95  73  96 /  10   5  10  10  20
Mineral Wells       98  75  97  74  94 /   0   5  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$