Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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279 FXUS63 KICT 211942 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 242 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible across southeast KS this afternoon/evening - A few showers/storms late tonight across central and southern KS. - Nocturnal storms possible Thursday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 As of 2 PM Tuesday afternoon, a potent, midlevel shortwave trough was progressing through north central KS. At the surface, a low was positioned near Omaha with a trailing cold front through Topeka and Eureka. The environment ahead of this frontal zone is becoming increasingly unstable with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE analyzed. Low- level winds have largely veered to the south-southwest immediately ahead of the front. With westerly to southwesterly flow aloft, hodographs are largely straight. This should foster cell splits and an eventual upscale growth, especially east of our forecast area. All of that to say, the overlap of strong instability and deep shear should support large hail to golf ball size, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and brief heavy rain. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out as well. Any storm activity should exit the area by 7 PM. A secondary, and weaker, shortwave trough was advancing through the central Rockies at this hour. The expectation is for showers/storms to develop across the higher terrain later this afternoon and gradually move eastward into portions of central KS late tonight into Wednesday morning. No severe weather is expected. The pattern by late week into the weekend appears to be becoming more-favorable for nocturnal convection, especially Thursday night/Friday morning, Saturday night/Sunday morning, and Sunday night/Monday morning. Typically this type of nocturnal convection will have the potential to produce damaging winds and heavy rain. Given the upcoming holiday weekend and plethora of outdoor activities, we encourage folks to check back through the week and weekend for forecast updates. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 A few hours of MVFR cigs are possible across portions of central and south-central Kansas this morning (mainly for KSLN, KHUT, KICT) through about 15-16Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail thereafter. Winds are currently around 15 to 25 knots out of the south and southeast. However, a cold front will be sweeping across the region throughout the day, and winds will gradually shift to westerly, then to northerly by this afternoon and evening. A few storms are possible across southeast Kansas, but chances remain low enough to omit from the KCNU TAF for now. Surface winds will gradually decrease to around 10 knots, but will remain northerly tonight through early Wednesday morning. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BDK AVIATION...ELM