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000
FXUS63 KICT 202359
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Updated Short Term and Aviation Discussions...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Latest radar returns are showing showers making their way into
Central Kansas as of 630pm CDT. The line of showers will continue
to push eastward into the CWA over the next few hours, and expect
rain to begin in south central Kansas (including the Wichita
metro area) shortly. Some reports of isolated pea size hail have
been received in some of the embedded storms to our west.
Therefore, occasional embedded rumbles of thunder, lightning, and
isolated small hail are possible this evening and tonight,
particularly along and west of I-135. However, the bulk of the
activity will be rain showers. Strong or severe storms are NOT
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Upper low is currently spinning over the Four Corners region with
showers and storms already developing over far western KS as the
upper dynamics continue to push east. At the surface, return flow
has setup across the Plains with very limited moisture in place,
especially given the time of year.

Upper low will continue to slide east tonight and by 12z Sat will
be moving into far western KS as strong upper diffluence
overspreads the forecast area. Current thinking is that a band of
showers will move into the western fringes of the forecast area
after 10 pm and should impact areas along I-135(including Wichita)
around or after midnight. Feel that the majority of our rainfall
will come with this initial wave as there is some mid level
theta-e advection aiding the development. After this initial band
of rain, confidence is high that we will maintain at least some
pockets of light rain and drizzle all day Sat with temps well
below normal as they don`t make it out of the 50s.

Upper low will be approaching the Ozark region by Sun morning
which will allow the rain to come to an end from west to east.
Mainly southeast KS will have the best chance to see additional
showers during the day Sun with the heavier rainfall staying south
and east of the forecast area. Should still see plenty of clouds
around Sun with areas west of I-135 possibly seeing some late day
sunshine. Still looking for widespread half inch rainfall amounts
with pockets of higher amounts, especially across southern KS.
Will be between weather systems Mon, as our next piece of energy
approaches from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

ECMWF and GFS remain in good agreement diving our next impulse out
of the northern Rockies and out into the Plains Tue into Tue
night. However, the ECMWF takes more of the energy further south
compared to the GFS resulting in the ECMWF pumping out more QPF.
At this point, confidence is high that another cold front will
push through Tue with at least some sct showers along it, but how
widespread rainfall will be is very low. We look to stay in a
progressive northwest flow pattern with yet another clipper system
to dive out of southern Canada and into the upper Mississippi
Valley for Thu. This will allow another cold front to move
through KS on Thu. This pattern will really limit any decent
moisture to make it this far north for severe storms and heavy
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Flight conditions are continuing to deteriorate this evening as
rain showers begin making their way into central Kansas at the
beginning of this forecast period. Rain is already affecting KRSL
and KGBD, and will continue to make its way eastward towards KHUT,
KSLN, and KICT over the next few hours. Meanwhile, ceiling heights
will slowly come down tonight and into Saturday morning. Expecting
MVFR cigs at most sites by sunrise, with IFR cigs possible in
central Kansas by early Saturday afternoon. Fairly light to
moderate easterly winds will prevail throughout the period. Will
continue to monitor the showers moving into the area and update
TAFs as needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Fire danger concerns are still expected to remain minimal through
the next several days.

Still expecting widespread rainfall tonight through Sat with most
locations picking up between a quarter and a half inch, with
pockets of heavier amounts over southern KS. Will remain cloudy
and cool for Sun which will keep RH values on the higher side.
Winds will remain light for Mon with another front expected to
move through Tue, which will knock temps back to below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    44  53  43  61 /  90  70  50  20
Hutchinson      44  51  41  60 /  90  70  50  10
Newton          43  52  42  59 /  80  70  50  20
ElDorado        44  53  44  59 /  80  80  60  20
Winfield-KWLD   45  53  44  61 /  80  80  50  20
Russell         42  49  37  60 /  90  60  40  10
Great Bend      42  49  38  60 /  90  60  40  10
Salina          44  52  41  62 /  70  70  50  10
McPherson       43  51  41  60 /  80  70  50  10
Coffeyville     45  56  47  61 /  80  80  70  30
Chanute         44  54  46  60 /  60  80  70  30
Iola            44  54  45  59 /  60  80  70  30
Parsons-KPPF    44  55  47  60 /  70  80  70  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TAV
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...TAV
FIRE WEATHER...RBL