981
FXUS63 KICT 080528
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1228 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and storm chances are expected through Tuesday
  evening.

- Additional on-and-off storm chances return Thursday night into
  the weekend.

- Warming trend continuing this week with a slight cool down
  expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

This evening into Tuesday...

An upper-level ripple will move over the area with its associated
weak frontal features. This front will likely set up in northern
Kansas providing an opportunity for spotty scattered showers and
thunderstorms this evening into the overnight period. With southerly
flow at the surface, moisture transport persists with dewpoints in
the 60s and 70s. There is decent instability across the area, with
MUCAPE values generally greater than 1500 J/kg. Given the relatively
weak deep layer shear, the severe potential is lower. However,
strong gusty winds cannot be ruled out with DCAPE values up to 1500
J/kg. The main impacts with any storm that develops would be strong
winds and locally heavy rainfall.

For Tuesday, spotty showers and thunderstorms are possible again due
to the weakening frontal boundary as a ridge begins building in.
With 2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE and relatively weak deep layer shear, a
few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly in south-
central to southeast Kansas. The main impacts would be wind gusts up
to 60 mph, locally heavy rainfall, and subsevere hail. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Wednesday into Thursday...

As a ridge continues to build into the area on Wednesday, this will
lead to warm and dry conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. High
temperatures will continue to rise, reaching mid to upper 90s on
Thursday.

Thursday night into the weekend...

A cold front will start moving through Kansas Thursday night leading
to additional on-and-off storm chances. As this front moves in, it
is expected to stall near the KS/OK border, leading to additional on-
and-off storm chances through the weekend. Modest instability is
expected providing opportunity for a few strong thunderstorms. This
far out, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out but will have to
refine this forecast as this weekend gets closer. Weekend high
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Currently monitoring a complex of thunderstorms across
southeastern Nebraska. Model guidance suggests this activity
will continue to dive southward bringing a broken line of
thunderstorms to the north-central TAF sites generally after
09Z. Main concerns with this activity will be gusty winds and
briefly heavy rain. Uncertainty remains with how far south this
line holds together. Added in VCTS for south-central and
southeastern KS sites, but gusty winds and low vis may need to
be added in later if the complex can maintain that far south.

Significant uncertainty then remains for the afternoon/evening
period as the remnant outflow boundary from this morning`s
activity will dictate placement and intensity of potential PM
storms.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...AMD