506
FXUS63 KICT 311125
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
625 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather pattern continues for Today-Tuesday across the
  region with periods of heavy rainfall possibly materializing
  and giving way to some flooding problems(Sunday night-
  Tuesday night)

- Strong to severe storm chances could increase during the
  Sunday-Tuesday period

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Remnant MCV over eastern Kansas early this morning was producing
slow moving nearly stationary showers/storms. Another area of
convection over western Kansas was drifting eastward towards central
Kansas. Expecting the convection from western Kansas to slowly
decrease in coverage due to weak low level jet. This decaying
overnight convection from western Kansas could spawn a east drifting
MCV due to weaker flow aloft. If this occurs the MCV would become a
focus for possible re-newed convection during the day today over
central/eastern Kansas. Storms will re-develop further west again
over the high plains of eastern Colorado this afternoon, and will
migrate slowly eastward into western Kansas tonight. Low level jet
looks to be fairly weak across the region tonight which will hinder
the eastward progression of this convection, and could cause
showers/storms to diminish overnight as they approach central
Kansas. We should see a replay for Saturday afternoon with
convection developing over the high plains region, and then
migrating eastward overnight. Models do show a better low level
jet/increasing moisture transport which should aid in convection
maintenance. This activity would have a better chance reaching
central/south central Kansas Saturday night. Severe weather chances
will be low, however there could be some gusty winds and heavy
rainfall concerns with this type of weather pattern for Saturday
night.

Models show a upper level zonal flow regime maintaining across the
region with two pronounced upper troughs moving eastward across the
northern plains on Sunday and Tuesday. A frontal boundary will push
southward from Nebraska into Kansas Sunday night from the first
upper wave, and we should see more numerous storms develop along the
front as low level jet will be noticeably stronger Sunday night. We
could see additional thunderstorms develop again on Monday
afternoon/night as airmass becomes more unstable with richer
Gulf of Mexico moisture streaming into Kansas during the day.
Meanwhile the second upper level wave advertised by the models
will push an even stronger cold front southward into Kansas
Tuesday night, and with very rich moisture/high instability in
place numerous storms look to develop along the front. Severe
weather chances could become more favorable Tuesday night due to
increasing winds aloft. This could generate a possible forward
propagating MCS, however these active patterns are difficult for
models to predict from day to day. There are some flooding
concerns with this pattern especially if we see several rounds
of storms affect the same locations repeatedly. The longer
range models show a pattern change beginning mid week with a
transition to a northwest flow regime aloft and building upper
level ridge across the Rockies for Wednesday and Thursday. This
pattern shift favors dry weather for Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Some MVFR/IFR cigs were impacting the area this morning with
scattered showers and isolated storms. Slow moving showers and
thunderstorms will fester across the area this morning bringing
the potential for some pockets of heavy rain and reduced flight
categories. Showers and storms are expected to diminish as we
move through the day but low cigs and MVFR/IFR may linger
through at least early afternoon before mixing out from west to
east. Light southeast winds will prevail through the period.
Storms drifting eastward off the high plains late tonight may
remain west of the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM