Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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470 FXUS65 KPUB 022052 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 252 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered weak thunderstorms over the mountains with gusty outflows of around 30 to 40 mph - Mostly dry conditions with above seasonal temperatures expected through the middle of the work week. - Rain shower and thunderstorm chances increase for the end of the week and into next weekend. - Increasing flows in area streams and rivers with expected enhanced runoff of high mountain snowpack. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Lingering thunderstorms are expected right at the beginning of the short term forecast period (Sunday at 6PM), with the main risk being gusty outflow winds of around 50 to 60 MPH possible. By around 8pm all storms will be east of the Colorado border and dry conditions continue across the entire region. Tomorrow the winds will be much weaker and the coverage of thunderstorms will also decrease. There will be some weak showers and thunderstorms that develop over the mountains, but the primary risk from those storms will be gusty outflows of around 30 to 40 mph. The main story is that temperatures will continue to be hot across the region with high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains, the 80s over the mountain valleys, and the 60s to 70s over upper Rio Grande River Valley, Lake County, and Teller County. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 No big changes to the extended forecast as modest west to northwest flow aloft across the region Monday moderates into the middle of next week, as upper level ridging continues to build across the Central Rockies. This allow for warmer and drier conditions to prevail across south central and southeast Colorado. Highs through mid week look to warm to above seasonal levels in the mid 80s to upper 90s across the plains, with temps mainly in 60s and 70s across higher terrain. Overnight lows also look to be at or above seasonal levels, leading to some increased flows in area streams with expected increased melting of the high mountain snowpack, especially across the upper Arkansas River basin where snowpack remains above normal. By later Thursday and continuing into the next weekend, models continue to suggest passing waves across the Central Conus and developing southerly flow across the Dessert Southwest and into the Rockies will lead to slowly increasing available moisture which will lead to increasing chances of daily showers and thunderstorms areawide into next weekend. With the increased moisture and expected increase in convection, temperatures will slowly decrease, though should remain at to slightly above seasonal levels into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1201 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Gusty west to southwesterly winds are expected for KALS, KPUB, and KCOS throughout this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts will reach up to around 25 kts. There will be a lull in winds between 1700-2000, but by around 2000 an outflow boundary should create gusty north-northwesterly winds for a couple of hours. When those winds settle, around 2300, winds will be come light and diurnal. No precipitation is expected at this time for today - so overall VFR conditions are expected. Lighter winds are expected tomorrow with no precipitation in the forecast. VFR conditions are expected tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKELLY LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...SKELLY