Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1152 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Issued at 955 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Quick update for expiration of the Red Flag Warning. Incorporated
latest obs data and satellite imagery.

UPDATE Issued at 751 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Red Flag Warning extended through 10 pm as critical fire weather
conditions to continue for a while longer. Although winds may
still be up around 10 o`clock, humidities should come up enough to
lower the Red Flag Warning.

UPDATE Issued at 517 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Visibilities have improved over the San Luis Valley and Fremont
County. Visibilities are still low in spots but widespread near
zero visibilities are no longer occurring. Consequently, the Dust
Storm Warning has been allowed to expire. However, very strong
winds continue across the area so the High Wind Warning remains
in effect.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018



Numerous grassland fires ongoing across the CWA. Winds continue to
be southwest at 30 to 50 mph at 2 pm this afternoon with RH values
in the single digits. GOES 16 shows impressive dust signature with
the dust coming out of the central San Luis Valley.

Through this evening...

Main concern if fire weather. Winds will continue strong from the
west southwest through mid afternoon with winds gradually becoming
west during the 5 to 6 pm time frame. Winds will then slowly
decrease this evening becoming northwest during the 7-9 pm time
frame. By later this evening the winds will be northwest 5 to 15 mph
with somewhat higher gusts out east.

Some snow will occur over the c mtns early this evening with 1-3"

Later tonight...

Winds will continue to decrease tonight although  it will remain
windy over the central mountains. Breezy northwest winds will
continue over the far eastern plains.


Shortwave mid level ridge will build over the region. breezy
northwest winds over the eastern plains will gradually decrease and
become southeasterly by late in teh day. Dry weather is anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...Increasing Fire Danger Thursday with more Widespread
Precipitation expected Friday and Saturday...

Wednesday night-Thursday...Moderate westerly flow aloft with short
wave ridging across the Rockies Wednesday night, gives way to
increasing southwest flow aloft through the day Thursday, as a deep
upper trough digs across the West and into the Great Basin. Dry
weather with at and slightly above seasonal temperatures remain in
the offing for Wednesday night and Thursday. Increasing flow aloft
will lead to breezy south to southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph
developing across the area Thursday afternoon, with fire danger
increasing across the Plains once again. However, models continue to
indicate slowly increasing low moisture spreading across the region,
with min rh`s progged in 15-20 percent range and will not issue any
fire weather highlights at this time.

Thursday night-Saturday...Models have slowed down the Great Basin
system a tad, and still have some differences in the evolution of
system across the region, though both GFS and ECMWF are indicating
upper low moving into the 4 Corners area by 12Z Friday, with a mid
level circulation continuing across northern New Mexico as a
secondary low develops and digs across southern New Mexico into
Friday night. This secondary low then continues into Western Texas
with a broad upper trough moving across southeast Colorado through
the day Saturday. This pattern continues to support widespread
precipitation developing across Southwestern Colorado Thursday
evening, with rain and high elevation snow, spreading east across
high mountain valleys through the Eastern Mountains and Southeast
Plains Thursday night through Friday night, before precipitation
diminishes from northwest to southeast, as deformation band and wrap
around precipitation shield associated with the main low slides
south and east. Still many details to work out, though still some
potential for stronger storms to develop across the Eastern Plains
on Friday, along with the possibility of winter weather highlights
across the higher terrain, with several inches possible at or above
10K ft. WPC 5 day qpf ending 00Z Monday still has between 1/4 and
1/2 inch of liquid precipitation across much of South Central
Colorado, and between 1/2 to over an inch of precipitation across
Southeast Colorado, with the greatest amounts across the Palmer Dvd
and out across the far Southeast Plains. This definitely would help
with current fire danger across the area. Time well tell.

Sunday-Tuesday...Models indicating upper level ridging redeveloping
across the region into early next week, leading to temperatures
warming back to at and above seasonal levels. Models are also
indicating some residual moisture leading to possible afternoon and
evening showers, especially over and near the higher terrain.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1152 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Decreasing winds and VFR conditions are anticipated over the
KALS...KCOS and KPUB taf sites during the next 24 hours as
minor upper ridging moves across southern Colorado during this





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