Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201646
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1046 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Fine tuned POPs and Temps across parts of the region for the rest
of today. /Hodanish

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Precipitation Across Most of Southern Colorado Today...

Recent GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows a closed mid-level low
progressing east across Utah toward Colorado this morning. A 110+
knot 300 mb jet rounds the base of the low and is poking into
southern Colorado. Southerly/southeasterly low-level flow is drawing
up moisture rich air into the region, including TPW of over 0.4"
over the mountains and 0.7" over the far eastern plains. Given
favorable moisture and dynamic lift, much needed precip is
expected/occuring across most of southern Colorado today.

In the mountains, snow is already falling across the continental
divide. 3-6" is expected in the southwest mountains, while 6-12" is
forecast in the central mountains. Snow will be heaviest across the
divide this morning, and become lighter this afternoon, especially
in the southwest mountains. Snow showers will pick up across the
eastern mountains late this morning/early afternoon, with 6-12"
forecast across the high elevations of the Sangre`s and Pikes Peak,
and 3-6" over the Wet`s. Snow will decrease in intensity/coverage
across the eastern mountains by late afternoon/early evening.
Localized higher amounts are possible in all mountain areas. The
best precip chances for the San Luis Valley will occur this morning
and early afternoon, where rain showers early will switch to snow.
Light to no accumulations are expected.

Across the plains, southeasterly winds will gust to 30-35 mph this
morning through the afternoon as the surface pressure gradient
tightens. As the upper level forcing drives east and low-level
moisture surges north into the state, rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop across much of the eastern plains,
primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours. While
thunderstorms are possible, severe weather is not expected given
limited instability. Thunderstorms that do develop could produce
small hail and brief wind gusts, however. The greatest rain totals
are expected over the far eastern plains where precip coverage looks
to be best, with models indicating a dry slot limiting precip along
much of the southern I-25 corridor. However, everyone across the
plains will have a shot at some rain.

As the system continues into eastern Colorado this evening, winds
will turn east over El Paso County. Rain will transition to snow
sometime during the early evening as temperatures cool, primarily in
northern El Paso County. Up to 3" of snow accumulation is in the
forecast for northern El Paso County through Saturday morning, with
less than an inch further south into Colorado Springs. Given recent
warm temperatures, snow will have trouble sticking to the roads,
especially early on.

Given cloud cover, temperatures across the plains and high valleys
will only rise into the upper 40s to low 50s today. Overnight lows
will fall into the mid 30s across the plains and mid 20s to low 30s
in the high valleys. Line

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Not many adjustments required from earlier longer term
meteorological reasoning with longer term concerns remaining
temperatures, winds and pops/thunderstorm potential at times.

Initially from Saturday into Saturday evening, majority of
forecast district will experience below seasonal temperatures in
combination with rounds of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms as closed upper low shifts from the Texas panhandle
at 15Z Saturday to eastern Oklahoma by 12Z Sunday and will allow
existing primarily higher terrain winter highlights to continue
into early Saturday afternoon.

A return to warmer and generally drier conditions should then be
experienced over the majority of the forecast district(with the
exception of the Continental Divide...where some showers will be
possible from Sunday into Sunday evening) from later Saturday
evening into Monday morning as transitory upper ridging moves
across southern Colorado.

It still appears that a return to somewhat more unsettled
conditions at times will be viable from later Monday into next
Thursday as several relatively weak upper impulses(per PV
analysis) impact portions of the CWA during this time-frame.

The highest potential for gusty winds during the longer term
should be realized into Saturday, and then from Tuesday into
Tuesday night and then again by next Thursday.

Below seasonal later April temperatures are expected into Saturday
night and then again on Tuesday, while basically above seasonal
later April temperatures should grace southern Colorado Sunday,
Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Winds will gust to 30-35 knots at all three TAF sites this morning
through the early evening, out of the southeast at KPUB and KCOS,
and southwest to west at KALS. Winds will decrease in intensity after
00Z. KALS will see light rain showers changing to snow this morning,
before becoming dry this afternoon. KPUB and KCOS will have light
rain shower chances this afternoon through the evening, with rain
changing to snow at KCOS during the early evening. Little to no snow
accumulations are expected.

MVFR conditions are expected at KALS this morning with lowering
ceilings, before improving to VFR this afternoon for the rest of the
24-hr period. Conditions at KCOS are forecast to drop to MVFR/IFR
with lowering ceilings and slightly reduced visibilities this
afternoon and much of the evening. KPUB should stay VFR through
today and early this evening, potentially deteriorating Saturday
morning.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT Saturday for COZ058-060-073-
082.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT Saturday for COZ066-068-
072-074>076-080-081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH


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