Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231033
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
433 AM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 433 AM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Rather vigorous upper trough dropping southeastward through the
northern Rockies this morning, with even some overnight
convection/lightning noted over ern Idaho/nrn Utah the past few
hours. As system approaches Colorado today, weak upward motion will
spread southward across the region from north to south, sparking
some isolated convection over mainly the mountains this afternoon
and evening. While models differ somewhat on amount of precip today
(GFS wettest/HRRR driest/NAM in the middle), they all show at least
some modest CAPE (100-300 J/KG) over the mountains, and will go with
a broadbrush of low pops for thunderstorms across the higher terrain
this afternoon and evening. Could see some weaker storms leak across
interior valleys and also Palmer Divide/El Paso county late this
afternoon, though any precip amounts will be light. Max temps today
should warm around 10f versus Sunday`s readings, as mid level temps
rise and reasonably deep mixing develops.

Tonight, nrn Rockies trough pushes a fairly strong cold front
through all of Colorado, with boundary likely along or just south of
the NM border by sunrise. Could see a few showers along/behind the
front as weak upper jet segment nosing into nrn CO provides some
lift, with nrn half of the area looking more favored for at least
some scattered light precip. Snow levels will fall to around 6000
feet behind the front, bringing at least the threat of some minor
snow accums down to the Palmer Divide/nrn El Paso county by early
Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 433 AM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Tuesday-Tuesday night...Latest models continue to indicate a broad
upper trough translating across the Northern Rockies with trailing
energy across the Central Rockies early Tuesday morning, with the
broad upper trough continuing into the Upper Midwest and Southern
High Plains by Tuesday night. The systems associated cold front
plunging south through the Southeast Plains by early Tuesday morning
leading to gusty northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph across the Plains
through the day. CAA behind the front will lead to temperatures some
10 to 20 degrees cooler than Monday, with highs in the 40s to lower
50s across the Southeast Plains, in the 50s to lower 60s across the
high mountain valleys, and mainly 30s and 40s across higher terrain.
As for precipitation, models remain consistent with some showers
across the higher terrain and the Southeast Plains early Tuesday
morning behind the front, with another round of showers and possible
thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain Tuesday afternoon,
with showers once again spreading out across The Plains Tuesday
evening. Snow levels down to around 6K through the day Tuesday could
lead to some light snow accumulations on grassy areas across the
Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa, with a few inches possible across the
higher terrain. Models continue to indicate precipitation
diminishing and ending from west to east Tuesday evening, with
clearing skies and cool air in place leading to overnight lows at
and below seasonal levels, mainly in the 20s to low 30s areawide.

Wednesday-Thursday...Drier and warmer weather remains expected
across the area Wednesday with short wave ridging building across
the region. Increasing northwest flow progged across the region
Wednesday night and Thursday, as another upper trough digs across
Upper Midwest and into the High Plains. Models still differ on
strength and location of this system, with the EC still a tad
stronger and further west with the trough as compared to the GFS,
with the EC solution leading to better chances of showers across the
area as well as cooler temperatures. Blended model solutions keeps
isolated to scattered pops over and near the higher terrain for
Thursday afternoon and evening. As for temperatures, blended
solution has highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the lower
elevations on Wednesday, with slightly cooler temperatures for
Thursday.

Friday-Sunday...Model differences continue into next weekend, with
the GFS still faster with Eastern Pacific energy across the West
Coast digging into the Great Basin. The GFS is also indicating a
"monsoonal like" moisture tap as moisture embedded the deep
southerly flow moves into the area under the high amplitude ridging
building across the Rockies, leading to isolated to scattered
showers and possible thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. The EC also
remains consistent in its previous runs where it is slower and keeps
the main system well to the west of the area through the weekend.
Blended model solution leaned closer to the GFS, though I did tapper
back pops a tad for Friday and Saturday, keeping pops confined to
the higher terrain for now. Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 433 AM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions expected at all taf sites today and tonight.
Isolated -shra/-tsra will develop over the mountains this
afternoon, and some weakening convection may persist long enough
away from the higher terrain to reach KCOS after 21z, and will
include a vcsh mention for a few hours until around 02z. Cold
front will drop south across the state overnight, bringing a
period of gusty north winds to KCOS and KPUB after 05z-06z, along
with a chance for some isolated shra/shsn at KCOS early Tuesday
morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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