Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 150943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
343 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Currently...high pressure over Utah is slowly pushing eastward this
morning with broad northwest flow aloft across Colorado.  A few mid
and high level clouds have spread across the region.  Winds have
subsided nicely and generally less than 10 mph this morning.
Temperatures have fallen into the 20s to lower 30s for most areas.
Light snow is possible over the Central Mountains through mid
morning, however, accumulations will remain less than an inch.

Today and tonight...high pressure over Utah will spread east across
Colorado through tonight.  A few mid and high clouds will continue
over the area due to weak energy embedded in the upper ridge.  Winds
are forecast to transition southeasterly by this afternoon and
remain much calmer than the past couple of days.  Afternoon high
temperatures are forecast to reach into the mid 60s for most
locations across the Plains.

By tonight, the upper ridge will be over eastern Colorado with flow
aloft transitioning more southwesterly ahead of the next upper level
storm system.  This will help temperatures remain in the lower to
mid 30s for lows tonight.  This will also set the stage for expected
fire weather concerns for Monday across portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Main concerns are the potential for high fire danger on Mon and Tue,
and the potential for high wind event on Tue.

Mon is expected to be a dry day acrs the area, with breezy to windy
conditions, mainly from the I-25 corridor counties and westward.
Humidities at the lower elevations are forecast to be below 15
percent.  At this time, it looks like Red Flag conditions will be
seen over the I-25 corridor counties, Fremont county, the lower
elevations of Sangre de Cristo and Wet mtns and the San Luis Valley.
Will upgrade Fire Wx Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Mon, and will
add El Paso county.

On Tue an upper level trof will move from the Great Basin into CO,
and will bring strong westerly winds to southeast and south
central CO. Sustained winds of 30-40 mph will be possible, with
gusts of 50+ mph not out of the question. May end up needing a
High Wind Warning for several areas, but will hold off on issuing
anything at this time, but will hit the winds hard in the
forecast. The other issue will be the potential for Red Flag
conditions as humidities fall to 15 percent or lower. Will issue a
Fire Wx Watch for Tue for all of the southeast plains and the San
Luis Valley. It is possible that humidities in the San Luis
Valley will end up being a little too high, but at this time it
looks like there could be a long enough period from late morning
thru about midafternoon, when much of the San Luis Valley will see
Red Flag conditions, before temps start to cool in the late
afternoon. As the upper trof moves into CO on Tue, precip chances
along the Cont Dvd will increase, especially in the central mtns.
In the evening hours, as the trof moves east into KS and NE, the
winds will become more northwesterly. The current forecast track
of this upper system is not favorable for bringing any precip to
the southeast plains and mtns.

Wed an upper level ridge builds over the area and the weather will
be dry, with lower wind speeds and lower fire danger.  Winds
increase again for Thu as a new upper level weather system moves
into the Great Basin. Could again see some areas meeting Red Flag
criteria.  There could be a few showers late in the day over the
central mtns, and there is some indications of a dry line setting up
along the eastern CO border.

Thu night the Great Basin weather system is expected to become a
closed low that moves into the Four Corners region and then tracks
east acrs southern CO on Friday.  Both the GFS and ECMWF show a
similar track, but there are timing differences, with the ECMWF
being slower.  Fri night and Sat this system then continues to track
east or southeast, depending on which model you look at, and the
ECMWF continues to be slower than the GFS.  This system has the
potential for bring precip to most of southeast and south central
CO Fri and into Sat, before drier conditions move in for Sun.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

VFR conditions at all three terminals through the next 24 hours.
Winds will generally be light at KALS through the period.  Expect
Southeast winds at KCOS and KPUB this afternoon, generally around 10
to 15 kts.  Mozley


Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for COZ222-224-226>237.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ222-



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