685
FXUS65 KBOU 191126
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
526 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow ending with areas of blowing and drifting snow over east
  central and northeastern Colorado this morning.

- Very windy eastern plains, with some decrease during the
  afternoon.

- Light mountain snow with few or minor travel impacts Thursday
  night and again late Friday through Saturday.

- Periods of elevated to potentially critical fire weather
  conditions expected for parts of the I-25 corridor and plains
  Thursday and Friday.

- Trending drier and warmer beginning Sunday and continuing into
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 519 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Blizzard conditions have ended in Washington and Lincoln counties
as the snowfall has diminished. No doubt there are still issues
with drifting as wind gusts are still 40 to 50 mph. There will
likely be a tradeoff this morning between a bit more wind and
warming temperatures reducing the ability of the snow to move.
Further east there`s still accumulating snow in Julesburg and
Holyoke, but visibilities look like they`re around a mile or so.
We`ve changed the Blizzard Warning to a Winter Weather Advisory
for blowing/drifting snow impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

The heaviest snowfall has shifted east of Colorado at this hour,
though the back edge of accumulating snow and strongest winds is
slowing its departure as the storm to our east winds up. We`ve
held on to the blizzard warning for conditions east of Akron and
Limon, but we`ll probably be able to drop the remaining highlights
early. Some impacts will continue from drifting snow due to the
strong winds, but with warming temperatures this should diminish
this morning. The rest of the forecast looks on track with some
very light shallow showers persisting near the Front Range for a
few more hours, and then some weak diurnal showers expected over
the mountains and possibly drifting east a bit in the late
afternoon. While there will be a little instability, the airmass
will be drying so we don`t expect much out of this, just scattered
light showers. Further warming aloft by early evening should shut
this activity down.

Forecast winds and temperatures look pretty good. There should be
some decrease in the winds this afternoon. The High Wind Warning
is marginal at this point, but with better mixing offsetting the
gradient decrease this morning we`ll let it run for a while
longer.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Daytime ridging will lead to a milder day Thursday with highs
climbing into the mid/upper 50`s for the lower elevations. Westerly
downslope flow will keep conditions dry despite a fair amount of
high clouds, and we could see localized high fire danger in Park
County, southern Lincoln County, and the far northeast plains where
winds will be breeziest and limited precipitation was observed with
this outgoing system. A weak shortwave and cold front in the evening
will bring light snow showers to the mountains, but accumulations
should stay below an inch for most, with little if any travel
impacts. Behind this first wave, slightly cooler and dry conditions
will prevail Friday, with renewed locally gusty winds and thus some
potential fire weather concerns.

Flow aloft becomes increasingly zonal Friday night into Saturday
with increased moisture advection into the high country. Snow will
develop in the mountains with minor travel impacts and a few inches
of accumulation possible (mostly 1-4"), favoring the Park Range for
the higher totals. A majority of ensemble members keep the lower
elevations completely dry, although with indications of
frontogenesis and under northwest flow aloft, it wouldn`t be prudent
to remove PoPs altogether. Nonetheless, any precipitation into
Saturday night would be light and of minimal if any impact.

All areas will enter a more prolonged dry period beginning Sunday,
with warming accelerating early next week as an amplifying upper-
level ridge over the western CONUS encroaches on Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/...
Issued at 519 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected through tonight. A cloud deck with
ceilings between 5000 and 7000 feet is expected to develop
between 20z and 22z and may require instrument approaches to KDEN
for a few hours between then and 02z. North winds at 20 to 30
knots will continue through late afternoon, then diminish.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be a
relatively safe bet Thursday and Friday for portions of the plains
and urban corridor, with a possibility of locally critical
conditions dependent on exact collocation of critical wind/RH
values. Pinpointing exactly where that will materialize is tricky,
and recent rain and snow will further contribute to the spatial
variability with a patchwork of fuel susceptibility. In general
though, Park County, southern Lincoln County, and our
northeasternmost counties stand the best chance of meeting critical
thresholds on Thursday given slightly breezier conditions and, as it
stands, more limited moisture from the outgoing system. On Friday,
the focus looks to be more over the urban corridor and northern
plains, with more marginal humidity and questionable fuel conditions
elsewhere, but this could still change.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for COZ046-047-049>051.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ046-
048>051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Rodriguez
AVIATION...Gimmestad
FIRE WEATHER...Gimmestad/Rodriguez