910
FXUS64 KTSA 191442
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
942 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 939 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

  - Significant fire weather concerns this morning diminish this
    afternoon as humidity values increase behind the front. A Red
    Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of NE OK until 1
    PM this afternoon. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect
    today for the remainder of E OK and NW AR.

  - Strong and gusty west to west-northwest winds today behind
    cold front; Wind Advisory in effect until 7 PM this evening.

  - Low to medium (20-40%) chance of rain today north of I-40;
    chance for a rain/snow mix for far NE OK and far NW AR this
    evening.

  - Potential for showers and storms return late in the weekend.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

The overall theme of the forecast today remains valid, with just
minor changes made for the morning update. High temperatures have
already been achieved for much of E OK as colder air fills into
the region behind today`s cold front. Temperatures in the 40s will
be common for the rest of the day across NE OK and NW AR/ lower
50s for SE OK. Primarily adjusted hourly T and Td grids to better
match observational trends and near-term guidance as the front
pushes through the remainder of the region this morning. A narrow
N-S corridor of blowing dust/ smoke was also observed moving with
the front this morning. This has been locally reducing vsbys to
2-5 miles as it pushes east, so have extended mention of blowing
dust until 18z for far E OK and NW AR.

West-northwest wind gusts up to 40-50 mph will persist through the
afternoon and the Wind Advisory continues areawide until 7 PM. RH
values increase behind the front to near 40-60% and remain there for
the remainder of the day, especially across NE OK and NW AR. For SE
OK, RH values may still fall as low as 30-40% this afternoon. Will
allow the Red Flag Warning to expire at 1 PM due to elevated
humidity values, but will expand the current Fire Danger Statement
to the remainder of the FA in its place as winds remain strong and
fires are still ongoing.

A chance of light rain arrives by mid afternoon for portions of NE
OK, generally along and north of Hwy 412. Any precip will eventually
move into NW AR by late afternoon/ this evening. Rain totals are
generally expected to remain less than a tenth of an inch and the
highest totals are likely to be restricted to areas along the OK-MO/
AR-MO border. Additionally, it appears the column will cool
sufficiently to allow for a mix of rain and snow, perhaps becoming
all snow, this evening across far NE OK and NW AR. Little, if any,
accumulation is expected with no impacts anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

As of 4 AM, a north-to-south oriented strong cold front was
analyzed just east of Highway 75, moving quickly towards the
east. The front is expected to move through the remainder of the
forecast area sometime around mid-morning. A narrow corridor of
very low dewpoint temperatures have been observed directly behind
the front, resulting in RH values between 10 and 20 percent. These
very low dewpoints should be brief following the frontal passage,
on the order of a couple of hours, before an increase in moisture
occurs. With gusty westerly winds up to 45 mph following the
front as well, the highest fire weather concerns of the day will
be in this narrow corridor of low dewpoint temperatures, with
critical to locally extreme fire spread rates possible. At least
one wildfire has already been detected via GOES-16 satellite in
far southeast Pawnee County early this morning. Despite an
increase in moisture later this morning, critical to near-
critical fire spread rates will remain possible across northeast
OK through at least midday. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect
until 1 PM this afternoon for portions of northeast OK. Elsewhere,
a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued through this
evening for elevated to near-critical fire spread rates.

Gusty west to west-northwest winds will be slow to subside today
behind the strong cold front, and gusts 40 to 45 mph will be
likely across much of the CWA, locally higher at times. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect for all of the forecast area until 7
PM this evening. Winds will gradually decrease late this afternoon
and into this evening.

A significant drop in temperatures will occur behind the cold
front, with temperatures falling through the daytime and into this
evening. Today`s high temperatures will occur just before the
frontal passage. Model data have really trended cooler over the
past few runs. Temperatures will fall into the 40s for most
locations this afternoon. The strong and gusty winds will make
temperatures feel like they`re in the 30s much of the daytime.

Finally, moisture will wraparound the upper-level low that will be
responsible for today`s weather. A chance (20-40%) of rain may
initially occur near the OK/KS border this morning, but will
spread farther south and east into the afternoon, affecting
locations generally near and north of Highway 412 in northeast OK
and northwest AR. This will certainly help increase RH percentages
in this area. As temperatures continue to fall this afternoon, a
mixture of rain and snow is possible (20-30%) along the OK/KS
border by late afternoon. No accumulations or impacts expected at
this time.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A strong upper-level low will be lifting northeastward into the
Midwest Region tonight. Winds will gradually shift from west to
northwest and will gradually decrease as the night progresses.
Although the Wind Advisory is set to expire at 7 PM this evening,
gusty winds up to 40 mph will be possible across the higher
elevations in northwest AR and southeast OK through at least
midnight. Moisture will continue wrapping around the upper-low
this evening and a rain/snow mixture to perhaps all snow is
expected across far northeast OK and far northwest AR that may
persist beyond midnight tonight. Temperatures are forecast to
remain well above freezing as the precipitation falls. Therefore,
accumulations are not really expected at this time, but a dusting
of snow cannot be ruled out, especially across Benton, Carrol,
Washington, and Madison counties in northwest AR. Impacts will be
very low, if any at all. Overnight low temperature will bottom out
into the low-mid 30s.

A lot quieter weather is anticipated on Thursday as upper-level
ridging overspreads the region and surface winds drastically
decrease through the daytime. Afternoon highs will range from the
mid 50s to near 60 degrees. Fire danger conditions will return on
Friday, behind the next cold front that will push through the
area in the afternoon or evening. Elevate to near-critical fire
spread rates will once again develop across portions of northeast
OK, highest threat along and west of Highway 75. More details to
come in later discussions.

The next chance of widespread rainfall will come late this weekend
as an upper-level trough moves into the Plains Saturday afternoon
into the evening. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase (40-70%)
Saturday evening and through Sunday morning, with chances
persisting through Sunday afternoon for southeast OK and northwest
AR. Though details are still murky at this time, instability,
lift, and shear look to be sufficient enough for strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms, especially across southeast OK
Saturday night into Sunday.

More benign weather conditions are expected for the early part of
next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Gusty southwest winds will shift to west and then northwest today
following the passage of a cold front. Wind gusts from 35 to 40
knots will be common into this evening. Mainly VFR conditions will
prevail, although areas of rain and/or snow may affect the far
northwest Arkansas sites this evening briefly reducing ceilings
and visibilities. Winds will begin to diminish later tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  36  59  41 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   61  37  60  35 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   56  38  60  40 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  60  38 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   58  34  56  35 /  20  30   0   0
BYV   60  33  53  36 /  20  40   0   0
MKO   56  35  58  39 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   57  33  55  39 /  60  40   0   0
F10   55  36  59  41 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   59  38  60  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     Red Flag Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>067.

AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05