260
FXUS63 KICT 202343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible Tuesday evening in southeast Kansas

 - Chances for and intensity of convection for Thursday, Friday
   and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Satellite and surface analysis showing low pressure across the
western part of Oklahoma southeast of KGAG.  A quasi-stationary
front extends north through western Kansas up through KHLC, then
northeast up through east-central Nebraska.  This boundary will be
the focus for convection over the next several days and nights.

Upper level satellite, model, and observational data remains
consistent in a continued active pattern over the next several days,
with perturbations moving through the mean flow. At the
surface, the latest of these pushes a cold front through the
area tonight, aided by the convection (convective cold pool)
that will develop across Nebraska and northern Kansas.

The front will stall over southeast Kansas Tuesday, with
favorable shear/buoyancy combinations and hodograph shape for
possible tornadoes in southeast Kansas.

The high pressure over the remainder of the area will be short
lived as another Lee trough develops Thursday. With the Gulf
being open, significant moisture returns to the area to support
storm development later in the week.

Shear/buoyancy combinations improve each day starting on
Thursday with the most favorable location being southeast
Kansas. At this time, Friday and Saturday evening look the most
favorable for severe weather, including tornadoes. Hodograph
shape looks most favorable as the upper level winds veer
consistently with height.

Bottom line, severe weather chances increase later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Main aviation concern will be some low level wind shear tonight
along with gusty winds on Tue.

Surface low pressure is expected to intensify across central KS
into eastern Nebraska late tonight into Tue. This will allow
southwest winds just off of the surface to ramp-up with speeds
around 45kts expected at 2,000ft by 06z. Strong surface winds
are expected on Tue, especially across southeast KS, affecting
KCNU, but will also be gusty at all sites. Cold front will move
through, flipping winds around to the northwest. It is forecast
to move through KRSL-KGBD around 15z and KICT around 18z. A
storm or two will be possible over far southeast KS after 21z,
but confidence is too low to insert into TAFs at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRC
AVIATION...RBL