869
FXUS63 KBIS 270808
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
308 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. High
  temperatures will generally be in the 60s.

- Generally dry conditions and warming temperatures Tuesday
  into Wednesday.

- Later Wednesday through the end of the workweek, chances for
  showers and thunderstorms return with temperatures remaining
  near to slightly above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Upper low pressure is present over northeastern
Manitoba/northwestern Ontario. This will move off to the east
today as it merges with an upper low currently situated over
the Great Lakes Region. In the process, another shortwave off
the west side of the low will drive down through the forecast
area. This will help generate isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon that will taper off from northwest
to southeast during evening and early overnight hours.

Trailing upper ridge will slide across the Northern Plains
Tuesday through Wednesday. This will provide a brief break from
the active pattern. At the surface, the forecast area will be
sandwiched between high pressure in the east and low pressure
in the west on Wednesday. This will generate breezy southerly
winds over at least the western half of the state. The result
being the warmest temperatures of the workweek. Even so,
temperatures won`t be overly warm and are forecast to range
from near average in the east to seasonably warm in the west.

The break in the active pattern will likely be short-lived as
the next upper low slides across southern Canada and drives a
stronger trough through the region starting Wednesday evening. A
little severe weather in the west isn`t entirely out of the
question later Wednesday as deterministic models suggest a
narrow window of 30 kt or greater 0 to 6 km bulk shear with over
2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This is supported by CSU machine learning
which would bring a slight risk into the far southwest, as well
as SPC which has a marginal risk for the far west. Whether
severe weather occurs or not will be highly dependent on the
timing of the wave and whether it reaches western ND before the
loss of the best instability.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will then persist through the
day Thursday. At this time, the severe threat Thursday looks low
with perhaps slightly higher shear, but far less instability.
Though of course, this can definitely change from now between
then. An additional shortwave or two off the same upper low
will produce continued precipitation chances through Friday and
possibly into the weekend.

Overall temperatures through the week look seasonable with highs
mostly in the 60s and 70s. Meanwhile, lows look to drop into the
40s to low 50s most nights. Ensembles suggest a warming trend is
then favored towards the very end of the period, or rather,
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Patchy fog has developed in central ND especially in the James
River Valley. Fog may be fairly shallow in nature, although it
is difficult to gauge at this time of night. Still, MVFR/IFR
visibility is expected at times through the night mainly
impacting the KJMS terminal. Otherwise, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again Monday
afternoon. Any showers or thunderstorms may produce brief
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility, as well as erratic winds.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken