Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1251 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

For this update, just slightly adjusted afternoon highs, winds,
and precipitation chances based on the latest high resolution
guidance and observations. Other than that, just blended the most
recent observations to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 953 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

No significant changes were needed for this update. Just blended
the latest observations with the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The latest observations were blended into the forecast. Otherwise
no changes were made.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Cool Canadian air will sink into the region, as an upper level
trough and associated surface front pushes east across the state
today and Tuesday. Temperatures in the 50s and 60s are forecast to
start the week.

Chances for precipitation are also expected. Mostly rain is
forecast through today with a transition to rain and snow tonight.
The southwest has the best chance for brief accumulating snow
where amounts between 0.5 and 1.5 inches are forecast.

Chances for precipitation move out through Tuesday morning as
high pressure scoots in from the west. Clear skies will ensue.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Wednesday will warm into the mid/upper 60s in most areas ahead of
the next shortwave, which will bring spotty chances for light rain
to the east. A brief cool down Thursday will drop temperatures in
the mid 50s and lower 60s. Friday through the rest of the
extended temperatures generally return to the upper 60s and lower
70s. The 00z global and deterministic models suggest a trough
deepening and approaching the state by perhaps Monday, but
specific details remain murky at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Low pressure developing over southeastern Montana will increase
precipitation chances over western and central North Dakota
through the afternoon and overnight hours. Breezy northerly winds
will increase across the southwest and south central as the low
approaches, with the strongest gusts over KDIK and KBIS from late
afternoon through early Tuesday morning. Rain showers and lowering
ceilings will bring MFVR conditions, mainly over KDIK and KBIS
after 00z.




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