635
FXUS63 KBIS 110555
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
  tonight into Friday morning across much of the state.

- Temperatures will cool down to the 70s for most locations on
  Friday, before warming back up again for the weekend.

- A more active pattern returns for the start of next work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Cold front is currently pushing southeast through the forecast
area. Currently radar indicates mostly post frontal shower
activity with a few thunderstorms. Made some adjustments early
overnight for an isolated thunderstorm near Minot, and then late
tonight through Friday morning for scattered to numerous
showers tracking southeast through the forecast area. Updated
text products will be transmitted shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 941 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

With the loss of daytime heating, two severe thunderstorms that
had developed earlier this evening have dissipated. Other than a
narrow line of showers and thundershowers in far northwestern
ND, the forecast area is dry at this time. That said, the
expectation remains that scattered showers and thunderstorms
will traverse across the forecast area tonight. Overall, the
severe weather threat for the remainder of tonight is low,
although a strong to severe storm or two is not out of the
question. Other than all that, updated PoPs and smoke in the
forecast based on the latest trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 709 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A cold frontal boundary, with a southwest to northeast
orientation, is in the process of passing from northwest to
southeast through the state. Along the front, a severe
thunderstorm has developed and is currently over cental
Bottineau County. The storm is gradually moving southeastward
into northern McHenry County, and golf ball sized hail has been
reported. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible as the front moves through this evening. However, the
severe threat should begin to diminish as the sun sets. That
said, a strong to severe storm or two overnight isn`t entirely
out of the question.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Quasi-zonal flow continues across the Northern Rockies into the
Northern Plains as cold front continues to push into the
northwestern North Dakota this afternoon. The low level thermal
ridge is elongated from the southwest to northeast which has
brought back warm temperatures across the state this afternoon.
Some compressional warming may be enhancing heating across the
central portion of the state this afternoon. Thus, high
temperatures today are forecast to climb into the the upper 80s
to mid 90s. A surface low over the Minot radar is starting to
kick off storms across the northeast with some showers forming
in the Northern James River Valley. Instability slowly is
increasing out across the eastern half of the county warning
area with around 1500-2000 j/kg of MLCAPE, however the effective
shear is under 20 kts. The moderate CAPE will likely lead to
upscale thunderstorm development, but the lack of shear will
keep storms from getting organized in the James River Valley.
However, there is a chance for isolated strong to severe storm
across the Northern half of the state this afternoon and
evening. The CAMs are pegging a clusters of storms moving in
from the southern Saskatchewan into the northern half of the
state tonight with some decent UH tracks. This is definitely
possible as the CAPE across the Northern half of the state is
forecast to remain around 1500-2500 j/kg SBCAPE and around 30-40
kts of effective shear. An upper level trough is forecast to
dig across southern Saskatchewan tonight leading to the
initiation of these storms. The main hazards are ping-pong sized
hail and strong wind gusts up to 60 mph. CAMs have the storms
weakening as they lose instability through the night.

We will see the return of surface smoke from Canadian wildfires.
In the northwest there is already some sites reporting
visibility reductions in Plentywood, MT and Estevan, CA. The
HRRR smoke model pushes smoke in with the front and even more
smoke as the upper low moves through the region. Smoke will
likely cause visibility reductions across the state tonight and
tomorrow.

The aforementioned short wave is forecast to move into North
Dakota late tonight into tomorrow morning. This will likely
bring forth an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms,
severe storms are not anticipated with this system. Showers and
thunderstorms will move out of the area by Friday afternoon as
temperatures cool into the upper 60s north to the lower 80s
southeast. Surface high pressure will settle into the region
leading to clearing skies however smoke may linger.

Weak ridging will amply across Western CONUS this weekend
leading to warming temperatures. Highs are forecast to return
to the mid to upper 80s Saturday and the 90s by Sunday. Warm
temperatures may linger into Monday depending on the timing of a
cold front. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the
region early next week with a broad trough forecast to move
across the region. This will cool temperatures back down into
the 70s through the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A cold front currently through KXWA and KMOT will push through
KDIK shortly and then KBIS and KJMS during the overnight hours.
North to northwest flow expected behind the cdfnt through the
remainder of the period, breeze this afternoon with gust to
around 25kts. Smoke is expected directly behind the cdfrnt with
current vsbys mostly in the 3-5SM range across the north. After
the short period of smoke there should be a break until smoke
possibly returns towards the end of the TAF period. Band of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is also expected to
sweep from northwest to southeast across the forecast area, with
the potential for a band of MVFR ceilings and MVFR vsbys in
shower activity. Conditions also improve from northwest to
southeast across the forecast area from late morning through the
afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...TWH