Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190601

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
101 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018


Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Sky cover was modified based on latest satellite imagery. Will
maintain some low POPs southwest/far south central as an area of
light showers associated with a mid level wave push south. These
will be out of the area by 08-09Z. Other weather elements remain
on track for early this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 941 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Have adjusted precipiation chances towards current trends as some
light rain showers continue to linger over portions of western
North Dakota. With that said, still expect this to continue to
deteriorate over the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

For early evening update have increased cloud cover over the area
in line with latest satellite imagery. Still expect gradual
clearing from north to south later tonight, but this may be
delayed a bit. Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Remnants of the convective system are exiting the north central
this afternoon while some residual showers remain across the
Montana/North Dakota border. Will trend both of these areas down
this afternoon and evening.

Expect gradual clearing skies to begin northwest this evening and
spread south and east overnight. Used teh NBM guidance for
minimum temperatures Saturday as this has been the best guidance
day one mins locally. This gave patchy frost across much of
northwest and north central North Dakota after midnight tonight
through Saturday morning where lows ranged from 34 to 37.

Soundings and the cam models do not support much fog tonight so
did not add to the forecast. This will be monitored though.

Mainly sunny skies are forecast Saturday as clearing extends
through the region. It will be a tad breezy across the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The extended forecast will see a slow warming trend. Dry weather
is forecast Sunday and Monday followed by scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday. The broad h500 flow has an
h500 low over the western CONUS with southwest flow aloft over the
northern plains. This will eventually transition to northwest
flow after the upper low swings east. This will bring more
chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially across the west
where its has been dry up until now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

MVFR with area of IFR ceilings will continue to push south across
southern North Dakota, moving south of all terminals by 07-08Z.
The remainder of the period will see VFR conditions as high
pressure builds into the region.


Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for



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