Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 171738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Issued at 1028 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

High temperatures today have been increased by several degrees
across south central North Dakota where strong April sunshine has
already warmed the area into the lower 40s by 10 AM CDT. Several
more hours of sunshine is expected before clouds move in from the
west this afternoon. ECM and MAV MOS guidance suggests highs in
the upper 40s to around 50 for Bismarck.

Winds have also been increased a bit across western North Dakota
where surface weather observations show wind gusts in excess of 40
knots as of 10 AM CDT. CONSMOS was used to make the wind
adjustments as this model is the closest to observations. Expect
wind speeds to slowly decrease this afternoon as light rain moves
in from eastern Montana.

UPDATE Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

No changes required for this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Rain and snow highlight the short term.

Precipitation will be slow to move in and saturate the lower
levels today. The latest guidance indicates precipitation will
start across western North Dakota after noon. Road and surface
temperatures will support light rain across much of western and
central North Dakota through the afternoon and early evening hours.
Forecast soundings show rain changing to wet snow by this evening
as temperatures plummet below freezing throughout the entire
column with a saturated snow growth zone.

Chances for snow will continue across central North Dakota
into early Wednesday morning. Any snow lingering into Wednesday
afternoon will likely switch back over to light rain as
temperatures warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Expect only a
trace to half an inch of snow across western North Dakota, with 1
to 2 inches possible across most of central North Dakota before
the region dries out Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Dry conditions will prevail across western and central North
Dakota for Wednesday night through Friday night as high pressure
builds in from the west. This will allow for strong mid April
sunshine to warm the region well into the 40s and lower 50s on
Thursday and Friday with rapid snowmelt expected for any areas
that still have some snow on the ground.

Another low pressure system over the four-corners region will
move eastward on Friday, giving southern North Dakota slight
chances of light snow Friday morning before quickly changing over
to light rain as temperatures warm to well above freezing. Slight
chances for light rain across the far south will continue through
Friday night. Split synoptic-scale flow with some ridging over
the state will dominate on Saturday and Sunday, making for drier
and warmer conditions. In fact, western North Dakota will flirt
with 60 degrees on Saturday and Sunday, before a slight cooldown
on Monday into the lower 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through at least
21z. Light rain and low clouds will slowly move eastward into
western North Dakota this afternoon, leading to MVFR/IFR
conditions at KISN by 21z and KDIK by 23z. Light rain will spread
into central North Dakota this evening while changing over to
snow, leading to MVFR/IFR conditions for KMOT by 03z, KBIS by 04z,
and KJMS by 08z. Once MVFR/IFR conditions arrive at any given
terminal, expect those conditions to continue through the end of
the forecast period.




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