320
FXUS62 KMLB 122341
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
741 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Coverage of showers and storms has diminished this evening, as
Invest 90L continues to work its way across the Florida peninsula
near the I-4 corridor. A few showers cannot be ruled out
overnight, so have maintained VCSH into the early morning hours.
Then, drier conditions forecast for much of the area, until
showers and storms develop once again Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. For SUA, have maintained -SHRA through the
period, with occasional VIS reductions, as precipitation is
forecast to continue near to just south of the area. MVFR CIGs
look to prevail through the overnight hours, before lifting by
mid-morning to VFR.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Currently-Tonight...Broad area of low pressure, designated Invest
90L, is currently across the I-4 corridor of east central FL.
This low will move slowly east-northeast and offshore the FL east
coast into tonight. Light to moderate rain persists across
Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast, where around 2 to 4
inches of rain have already fallen, locally up to 5 to 7 inches.
This stratiform rain looks to gradually taper off through late
afternoon, but still can`t rule out some additional storms or
heavier bands of rainfall still developing across this region
through this evening. This will continue the potential for
flooding issues across this region, especially now that the ground
is pretty saturated. Farther north, additional scattered to
numerous showers and storms are forecast, closer to the low
pressure and with any interacting boundaries through late
afternoon and evening. Locally heavy to excessive rainfall
concerns will still exist across this area as well, with any slow
moving storms or repeated round of convection, leading to rainfall
amounts up to 1-3 inches and isolated higher amounts over 4
inches possible. Strong gusty winds and lightning strikes will be
the main threats from any storms, with any lingering severe threat
largely confined to south Florida.

Coverage of showers and storms looks to decrease late evening
through around midnight. However, lingering rain chances continue
overnight and even increase across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee
County toward daybreak Thursday. It will remain mild and muggy
overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Thursday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Finally seeing
some better model agreement late week into the beginning of the
weekend. Invest 90L, in whatever form it ends up at this point,
should be well northeast of east central Florida and continuing to
pull away. In it`s wake, the stationary front drops south across
central Florida, keeping the deep tropical moisture in place
across much of the peninsula and providing a focus for continued
high rain chances. Daily PoPs remain 70-90 pct area wide through
at least Friday. Currently have 60-80 pct PoPs Saturday, pulled
down by uncertainty as the ECM and the GFS begin to diverge again.
Additional forecast widespread rainfall amounts Thursday through
Sunday morning generally range around 1-3 inches. However, locally
heavy to excessive rainfall will still be possible, with WPC
maintaining a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on
Thursday, and then at least a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall
across portions of the area.

Other storm threats continue to be occasional cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds. Afternoon highs remain mostly at at or
below normal in the M-U80s, but will likely see a few more northern
spots hitting 90.

Sunday-Tuesday...(Previous Discussion) Should finally start to
see a change in the pattern, but there continues to be uncertainty
in timing. High pressure over the CONUS building into the western
Atlantic and over Florida should eventually push the front to our
south, and the higher moisture to the south and east. The ECM is
faster and a little more aggressive, lowering rain chances as
early as Sunday, while the GFS is slower and a little more
conservative, keeping higher rain chances in the forecast until
Tuesday. Either way, there appears to be enough moisture in
moderate onshore flow to continue near normal rain chances into
mid next week. Temperatures start to creep back up but still
around normal in the U80s-L90s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Tonight...Broad low, designated Invest 90L, across the I-4
corridor will shift east-northeast and offshore of the coast
tonight. Poor boating conditions will continue offshore of
Brevard County and the Treasure Coast waters tonight as south to
southwest winds are forecast to remain up to 15 to 20 knots. Seas
are forecast to build slightly to 2-4 feet nearshore and up to 3-5
feet offshore. Shower and storm chances will remain high into this
evening, with potentially some decreasing coverage near to past
midnight. However, there will still be a lingering chance for
offshore moving showers and storms, some which could be gusty,
mainly south of the Cape late tonight and toward daybreak
Thursday.

Thursday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Invest 90L departs
to the northeast, dropping the stationary front south across the
waters in its wake. Winds generally S-SW up to 10-15 kts south of
this boundary into Thursday, decreasing to 5-10 knots into Friday.
North of the boundary, mainly across the Volusia County waters,
winds become northerly 5-10 knots. Light offshore flow on Saturday
morning becomes S/SE by the afternoon and then becomes easterly into
Sunday as high pressure builds off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Wind
speeds remain less than 15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet on Thursday fall to
1-3 ft Friday and into the weekend. High moisture and the frontal
boundary will continue high rain and storm chances through at least
late week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  73  89 /  60  80  60  80
MCO  75  88  74  88 /  70  80  60  90
MLB  73  89  73  88 /  70  80  80  90
VRB  73  89  72  88 /  70  80  80  90
LEE  75  90  75  92 /  60  80  50  80
SFB  75  90  74  91 /  70  80  60  80
ORL  75  90  75  90 /  70  80  60  80
FPR  72  89  72  87 /  70  80  80  90

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Leahy