842
FXUS62 KMLB 251815
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
212 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

TEMPO TSRA groups are forecast this afternoon at KMCO KISM, KSFB,
KDAB, KLEE with VCTS at the other coastal sites. Showers/storms are
expected to increase in coverage into the afternoon/evening as
boundary interactions occur between sea breezes and outflow from
previous storms before diminishing late this evening. E/SE winds at
5-10kts this evening back offshore overnight into Wed AM at 5kts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Mostly quiet on the KMLB WSR-88D radar this morning, with only
a couple isolated light showers over the Atlantic waters south of
Sebastian Inlet. Satellite and local observations shows some low
and high level clouds streaming over the peninsula. Deep moisture
remains over central Florida, with GOES-16 PWATs showing PWAT
values between 1.8-2.0" across ECFL this morning. This along with
the typical summertime diurnal heating pattern will support
scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms
today. Light west to southwest winds today will allow the east
coast sea breeze to form and push inland. The sea breeze collision
is forecast to occur across the interior this afternoon, where
the highest coverage of showers and storms (PoP 60-70 percent) is
located this afternoon and into early evening. Have maintained PoP
40-50 percent along the coast through the evening hours, since
steering flow should be light enough to limit a higher coverage of
showers and storms being pushed back towards the coast. Similar
to yesterday, main storm hazards for any storms today will be
locally heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning strikes,
and gusty winds up to 35 mph. Slow moving to stationary storms
will be capable of a quick 1-3" of rain in a short 60-90 minute
time frame. Temperatures will continue to be hot and muggy today,
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices
ranging from 102 to 106 degrees. Any lingering activity should
dissipate or move out of the local area by midnight, with mostly
dry conditions expected over land tonight. Forecast remains on
track with only slight adjustments to this afternoon and overnight
rain and lightning storm chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Today-Saturday...Light offshore flow shifts southward each afternoon
as the east coast sea breeze develops. Background flow then becomes
southerly on Saturday, backing onshore with a developing sea breeze
in the afternoon. Winds remain light through the period, generally
10 kts or less. Seas of 2 ft persist with occasional seas up to 3 ft
across the far offshore waters. High coverage of summertime
showers and storms are forecast each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  75  94 /  30  70  40  60
MCO  75  93  77  93 /  50  70  30  60
MLB  75  92  75  93 /  30  70  40  60
VRB  74  91  74  93 /  40  70  40  60
LEE  76  93  77  93 /  40  70  30  60
SFB  76  93  76  94 /  50  70  30  60
ORL  76  93  77  94 /  50  70  30  60
FPR  74  91  74  93 /  40  70  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Fehling