131
FXUS63 KSGF 021110
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and muggy summer-like pattern into midweek with daily
  chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highest chance for
  thunderstorms (greater than 50%) are currently Monday and
  Tuesday. Severe threat remains marginal however a slight risk
  for excessive rainfall exists.

- A pattern change will occur late in the week with near normal
  temperatures and lower rain chances (less than 30 percent)
  however confidence is low with the details of this pattern
  shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: The upper level pattern
was generally zonal across the CONUS right now however a few low
amplitude shortwaves were moving through. A low level jet was
analyzed across western Texas up into Kansas and Nebraska with a
few thunderstorms across Kansas and Oklahoma. Surface high
pressure axis was over the area creating stable conditions with
mostly clear skies and calm winds. Patchy fog was developing in
the river valleys as RH values were near 100%. Temps ranged
from the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s
elsewhere.

Today: Through sunrise, expectations are for additional areas of
light fog to develop across the area given the high RH, calm
winds and clear skies. Widespread dense fog is not expected
however a few areas may briefly drop below a mile. Thunderstorms
across Kansas should weaken and dissipate as they approach the
Missouri/Kansas border this morning given the stable/drier
airmass overhead. 500-700mb height rises are expected today
which should keep a lid on any thunderstorm development today.
While some high clouds will stream through, most areas will see
plenty of sunshine with highs in the middle 80s. As winds begin
to turn southeasterly, it will begin to advect in a reservoir
of higher dewpoints (middle 60s) therefore it will begin to feel
more humid/muggy by late in the day.

Tonight: As the low level jet increases across Kansas and
Oklahoma, a complex of thunderstorms will develop near the
Kansas/Nebraska border region. The HREF and RAP both indicate a
sizable instability gradient across eastern Kansas into eastern
Oklahoma with much lower instability across our area.
Thunderstorm complexes typically will ride these instability
gradients depending on the propagation vectors. If the
thunderstorm complex can generate a strong enough cold pool then
forward propagating vectors takes this towards northern
Missouri and then slowly weakens given the lack of instability.
This scenario is shown by some guidance.

Other guidance suggests the cold pool will not be as strong and
with Corfidi vectors pointing south, the complex may build more
southerly, into the instability gradient across Kansas.
Therefore for the most part we expect this complex of storms to
remain just outside of the area tonight with most locations
dry.

Monday: Even higher dewpoints (upper 60s to near 70) will advect
into the area creating a more unstable airmass. Either
convective outflow or a remnant MCV may traverse the area during
the day, this would be the lift needed for shower and
thunderstorm development. ThetaE Diffs of 25-30K may be enough
for a few instances of 50-60mph wind gusts with any storms that
develop however this looks isolated at this time as wind shear
will be quite weak (less than 25kts). Mean PW values from the
HREF indicate 1.4-1.6in returning to the area. Therefore this
high of a moisture content combined with slower storm motions
could create efficient rainfall producing storms with localized
flooding. The overall coverage of rainfall on Monday is still in
question therefore additional updates to pops are likely as we
begin to see where the Sunday night/Monday morning MCS evolves.
High temps Monday will be dependent on clouds/precip. Going with
NBM currently has highs in the lower 80s however if
clouds/precip are more isolated than middle to upper 80s could
transpire which will create a very muggy/humid day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday Night through Tuesday: Models suggest some weak upper
level energy may move through during this time, interacting with
a low level jet. Much like during the day Monday, coverage of
precip is highly uncertain which is leading to widespread 40-60
percent precip chances during this whole time period therefore
additional updates are likely to these. Another humid day is
expected with highs in the middle 80s with dewpoints near 70.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday: Overall a higher confidence time
period as guidance suggests that a front will drop south into
the area ahead of strong lift across the northern plains. This
should lead to higher precip chances as the front comes through
and the latest NBM does show about a 50-70% chance of at least a
half inch of rainfall as the moves through. Not expecting much
of a temperature change for Wednesday with highs again in
the middle 80s.

Thursday through Saturday: Ensembles are in good agreement that
a pattern shift will occur however there are significant
differences in the details. Overall we are expecting a ridge to
develop across the southwest US with a upper level low across
the Great Lakes. If the upper low remains far enough to the
northeast then the area will be warmer and drier (Continued
middle 80s). If the upper low remains closer to the area then
we could see higher precip chances and cooler conditions (highs
in the upper 70s to around 80). Developing blocking patterns
like these can be hard to pinpoint therefore will be watching
the evolution of this as we go through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Light MVFR fog will slowly erode to start the TAF period with
VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Winds will begin
to become more southeasterly today. Rain chances remain less
than 20 percent at JLN and will not include in the TAF.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield