441
FXUS63 KEAX 312320
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to expand east
  this evening across southern and central Missouri, with more scattered
  activity farther north.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday night
  through Tuesday night. Additional heavy rain are possible with
  these storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Looking at the big picture, satellite imagery this afternoon shows a
ridge axis off to our east with a big trough across Canada dipping
into the Northern Plains. This would have left Kansas and Missouri
with a locally zonal flow across the Plains States if a large MCV
had not developed overnight.

The forecast hasn`t changed much in the past 12 hours. The MCV, that
overnight convection develped to our west, is still slowly spinning
its way east along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. This has left eastern
Kansas and western Missouri with cloudy skies and scattered showers
through the day thus far thanks to the feed of moisture from the
Gulf. Model output, and simple persistance, indicates that the MCV
will continue east overnight with widespread showers and maybe some
embedded thunderstorm activity across southern, central, and
northeast Missouri overnight. Additional rainfall totals might bring
some minor flooding, but that is not really expected at this time as
totals will likely be less than half and inch.

Saturday...should be dry after the MCV moves far enough east
tomorrow morning. This will allow temperatures to rebound a bit for
the start of the weekend with highs both Saturday and Sunday around
80.

Sunday into next work week...will see the arrival of our next chance
of rain as a shortwave moves through what will be a zonal flow
across much of the Nation. Expect the chance for rain to return
Sunday and persist through the start of the work week, with
rain possible Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Otherwise, even
with the expected rain, and cloud cover that comes with it,
currently we expect to see temperatures ranging through the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conds with lgt rain will prevail thru 03Z when shower
chances should diminish however, MVFR cigs are expected to move into
the TAF sites with fog reducing vsbys to 5SM-6SM. Aft 07Z... cigs
are expected to further drop into IFR with fog reducing vsbys to 4SM-
5SM (IXD vis may drop LIFR btn 1/2SM-1SM btn 09Z-13Z). Cigs/VIs will
begin to improve aft 13Z when they will lift back into low MVFR and
improve to abv 2kft aft 15Z-16Z before finally becmg VFR aft 18Z.
Winds will be generally lgt thru the entire TAF pd as they back from
the east to the NW thru the pd.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...73