Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 160516

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1216 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 220 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2018

The main concern for the remainder of the afternoon is with the
continued fire weather danger across eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. Dew point values will continue to slowly increase this
afternoon, though relative humidity values will decrease as surface
temps rise during peak heating. Southerly to southeasterly winds
will also continue to gust to 20 to 25 mph before sunset. All
said, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 PM CDT for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri, including the Kansas City

With persistent warm advection in place tonight, low temps
will be slightly warmer than this morning, generally ranging from
the low 50s across the southern counties to the mid 30s across
northeast Missouri, north of the warm sector. A broad surface
ridge centered over the Great Lakes will push southward into the
overnight hours. This will occur ahead of a strengthening surface
low directly underneath a shortwave trough across western Kansas.
Isentropic ascent from eastern Kansas to much of Missouri will
support the development of periodic rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms beginning tonight through Friday. No severe weather
is expected with this activity tonight.

A thermal gradient north and south of the warm front will develop
from northwest Missouri to central Missouri, resulting in afternoon
highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s south of the front, with values
in the low 40s further north. As the surface low continues to
strengthen, surface winds will back to the southeast underneath
favorable mid-level wind fields. Low-level lapse rates will also
steepen within a narrow corridor ahead of the surface low, combined
with a destabilizing environment aloft. As a result, there is the
potential for organized strong to severe storms Friday afternoon,
just east of the surface low. Low LCL heights in the wake of
morning storms and 0 to 1 km helicity values in the 200 to 300
m2/s2 range, in addition to the aforementioned, will result in the
potential for an isolated tornado or two to develop Friday
afternoon as well. The caveats to this setup are the ability for
surface based storms to develop, and the fact that this will be
within a narrow corridor spatially. Generally thinking that the
most favored areas of development will be across eastern KS and
western MO, though this area may change slightly during subsequent
forecast updates. Again, the extent of morning activity and any
lingering precip will certainly play a role in this setup with the
amount of surface destabilization. For now, expecting the
potential for strong to possibly severe storms Friday afternoon
with the potential for small to large hail and gusty winds, with a
marginal risk for an isolated tornado or two. This is a
conditional setup, which will need to be closely monitored.

More benign conditions will return to the area Saturday, with much
cooler temps expected in the wake of the departing storm system.
The active pattern will resume by Sunday evening into Monday as a
similar pattern to Friday`s storm system develops across the area.
Both the upper and surface low are currently progged to transition
slightly further south, however. The warm sector with this setup
will be much broader and the vertical depth of moisture
availability will be much deeper, thus providing the greater
chance for notable precipitation totals. In all, expecting totals
to hover between half an inch to perhaps three quarters of an
inch, mainly south of the Missouri River. Totals between two
tenths to half an inch are expected further north. There is also
the potential for a brief period of wintry precip Tuesday morning
on the backside of the departing low, underneath a subsequent
shortwave trough. Dry conditions will then return briefly as mid-
level ridging develops over the Central Plains. The next chance of
precipitation will then return by the late week as the active
pattern resumes.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2018

VFR conditions initially across the area are expected to
deteriorate later this morning as moisture streams northward ahead
of a fairly strong upper storm system and associated surface low.
This may spread some showers over the in the next few hours and
through the morning hours. There may even be a few thunderstorms,
although at this point the coverage of showers looks more
widespread. Conditions are expected to become IFR due to low
ceilings late this morning and persist into the afternoon hours.
It then looks like a dry slot will move over much of the area
resulting in a scattering out of clouds. How far north this gets
into northern MO is a little uncertain and it`s possible the dry
slot misses STJ or even MCI before low clouds wrap back into the
area as the low passes by.




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