Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 241105
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
605 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 246 AM CDT SAT AUG 24 2019

Ongoing showers and storms across western to central Kansas will be
kept west of the local area today as a mid-level ridge stalls across
the Northern Plains, while a surface ridge across the Great Lakes
continues to expand southeastward. To the south, showers and
storms have formed near an effective frontal boundary across
northern Arkansas, and some of this activity will continue to
drift into eastern Kansas and western Missouri early this morning
until dissolving upon interacting with the aforementioned surface
ridge from the northeast. Mid to upper clouds will, however,
drift into the area and remain in place through much of the day.
This, combined with persistent easterly surface winds, will
moderate temperatures today, only reaching the upper 70s this
afternoon. As the stalled upper pattern to the north begins to
break down this evening, upstream showers and a few storms will
overspread eastern Kansas and western Missouri late tonight,
eventually expanding further east into central Missouri. Showers
and storms will continue through Sunday morning and Sunday
afternoon as the mid-level wave advects overhead the area. By
Monday morning, a warm front will lift northeastward through the
region, briefly providing a deepening warm sector before a cold
front pushes through the local area late Monday. This will
maintain precip chances heading into the early week, with
increasing chances expected ahead of the cold front Monday
evening. There is increasing potential for some storms ahead of
the cold front to become strong to severe Monday evening given
destabilization within the warm sector through much of the day,
and moderate flow aloft to support increased bulk shear values.
While timing of the frontal passage may affect the overall severe
threat, currently thinking that some storms will have the
potential to produce strong to damaging winds along with large
hail. Of the multi-day period of precipitation, most precip should
fall Monday evening ahead of the frontal boundary, with rainfall
totals generally ranging from a half inch to an inch, with
locally higher amounts possible.

Mostly dry conditions are then expected in the wake of the
frontal passage, persisting through the mid-week as northwest
flow develops aloft. Cooler than normal temps will also round out
the month of August with highs in the 70s and lows possibly into
the 50s. Additional precip chances will then develop by the late
week into the weekend as northwest flow gives way to a subsequent
shortwave trough atop slowly increasing low-level moisture fields.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT SAT AUG 24 2019

Aside from light and dissipating showers to the south of the
terminal sites early this morning, dry conditions are expected
through the day until rain chances increase overnight from eastern
Kansas. VFR conditions are expected today, though a few low-level
VFR to perhaps brief MVFR ceilings are possible as the day
progresses, while mid-level clouds continue to drift overhead from
the west. Surface winds will remain easterly to southeasterly
near 10 to 11 knots through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh


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