Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 131823
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
123 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 119 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

Still expecting the chance for strong to severe storms to develop later this
afternoon for portions of our forecast area. At this time it appears
the higher probabilities for severe weather will be across the western
portion of the forecast area particularly far northeast KS and
northwest MO. That region will have the largest shear and
instability near a surface low and attendant warm front draped
west to east near the MO/IA state line. There exists a substantial
cap that may serve to mitigate severe storms from becoming very
widespread... at least that is what many of the high-res models
are depicting. All the activity should dissipate late this
evening with the passage of a strong cold front.

In the wake of the frontal passage late tonight, rapid drying in the
mid-levels will bring an end to precipitation for the early
overnight. This will be short-lived, however, as the the back side
of the surface low advects eastward. This will occur coincident with
the passage of the main upper-low as it slowly lifts to the
northeast. Despite the drying mid-levels, cooling low-levels will
promote saturation and the development of drizzle within a confined
layer of moisture beneath 800 hPa early Saturday morning. As the
moisture profile deepens once again by late Saturday morning into
the afternoon, expecting to see drizzle transition to a light rain
as the surface low continues to push eastward. By Saturday evening,
a continued cooling thermal profile, along with a saturated
dendritic growth zone, will support a light rain/snow mix Saturday
night through early Sunday morning. While minor accumulations are
possible on grassy surfaces, precipitation rates and the existing
stored surface heat should mitigate accumulations and resulting
impacts.

A more significant impact Saturday night/Sunday morning will be with
wind chill values ranging from the mid-teens to low 20s as increased
low level flow persists during the arrival of an unseasonably cold
air mass from the northwest. Surface heating will be limited as a
result Sunday afternoon, with high temps only peaking in the upper
30s across northern MO, to the low to mid 40s for areas south of
Highway 36. Precipitation will taper off early Sunday morning, while
cloud cover should slowly erode Sunday evening. Mid-level ridging
will maintain dry conditions through the early work week, along with
a warming trend through Tuesday. The passage of a subsequent cold
front Tuesday night will prevent additional heating Wednesday,
bringing temps back to more seasonal values. At this time,
precipitation development looks to be fairly limited ahead of the
frontal boundary Tuesday night. Better precip chances will hold off
until the late week into the early weekend as another potential
dynamic storm system returns to the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

For this afternoon, VFR cigs and vis are expected with very
breezy southerly surface winds. Late this afternoon thunderstorms
are expected to develop near the terminals associated with an
approaching cold front. At this time STJ has the best chance of
seeing a storm compared to the other terminals. The activity
should be out of the area by 02 UTC. Winds will shift to the
northwest behind the front will MVFR CIGS developing after sunrise
tomorrow, but no issues to the visibility.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060-105.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ043-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Pietrycha/Welsh
Aviation...Pietrycha



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