876
FXUS63 KEAX 100503
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonable heat and humidity through work week, then cooler into
  weekend
  - Thru Fri: High temps mainly in the mid 80s to low 90s
  - Heat Index values in the 90s, to near 100 possible

* Multiple chances for storms ahead...
  - Tonight/Thursday AM: low severe threat, winds primary concern
  - Friday PM: Strong/severe possible, hail and wind primary concerns
  - Next Week: Unsettled pattern continues with additional
    chances for storms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Summary: The seemingly persistent unsettled, and often low-
confidence, weather pattern looks to continue as stronger steering
flow/jet remains displaced well northward. Passage of multiple
embedded shortwaves and other low-amplitude troughs will provide
opportunities for storms, but with diminished or limited confidence
in coverage and strength much more than 12-24 hrs ahead of time.
Temperatures too remain on the warm/hot side of normal remainder of
work week, ahead of anticipated cool/cold frontal passage late
Friday/into Saturday.

Discussion:

Local conditions today have remained largely quiet and stagnant with
surface ridge influence in the wake of departing mid-upper level
shortwave (now over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley areas).
Additionally, mid-upper surface ridge remains planted over the SW
CONUS, yielding NW flow aloft through much of the Missouri Valley.
Jet core remains displaced well northward, generally along or north
of the US-Canada border. This has all resulted in strong diurnal
heating and light and variable winds across much of the larger area,
while more organized southerly flow is just beginning to work back
into eastern Kansas. Temperatures remain on track to top out in the
upper 80s to low 90s, especially as cumulus field tending to struggle
over much of the CWA at the moment. It remains possible that we see
a widely scattered shower or two this afternoon/early evening,
however a plethora of dry air through the boundary layer and a warm
~700mb layer looks to really hamper that potential, aside from lack
of any notable local or broadscale lift/focusing mechanisms. Far
western portions of the CWA will see marginally better boundary
layer conditions as southerly flow signals beginnings of deeper
layer moisture return. However, ~700mb region will remain warm and
should keep a general lid on activity. An item of note though,
there`s always one or two it seems of late, is poorly forecast
scattered non-severe storm activity currently over SE Nebraska. This
is on the leading edge of mid-level isentropic lift/nose of
moisture. Given propagation thus far and general direction of weak
steering flow, do not expect this activity to affect the CWA given
the overall poor environment, weak nature, and inability to produce
any notable outflow. That activity may continue to drift SSE into NE
Kansas this evening along that theta-e gradient. RAP/HRRR runs keep
said gradient west of the CWA, more into OAX/GID/TOP regions.
Otherwise, ~700mb CAP appears increasingly likely to hold locally,
especially with lack of supportive broad lift. So have kept PoPs dry
remainder of this afternoon/evening.

Tonight, weak mid-level shortwave and accompanying cyclogenesis is
expected to initiate storms over the western/High Plains areas of
Nebraska and South Dakota. General NW mid-upper flow and steering
flow across the region should push this activity toward the SE. 12z
CAM runs continue to hint at the potential for remnant MCS to work
into NW CWA, potentially toward the KC Metro before petering out.
HRRR runs through the day have been less robust on this, tending to
keep majority of the MCS displaced northward into Iowa. Difference
in progression/placement appears tied to discrepancies with MUCAPE
values and gradient within the CAM solutions. HRRR/RAP runs depict
much more limited instability available locally versus areas into
Nebraska/Iowa. Buying into at least some of the HRRR/RAP depictions,
have trended PoPs a bit drier overnight into Thursday morning over
the area, but have not completely pulled out PoPs, resulting in
broadly 15-20% down toward the KC metro and along the I-70 corridor.
Will note, given depicted deep and very dry near-surface layer, any
activity approaching the area may be able to produced enhance down
drafts/wind gusts, even if convection itself is on a downward trend.
Have also hedged for slight chance (~15-20%) PoPs into the
afternoon/evening Thursday potential outflows from the MCS laying up
over the area and increasingly surface/near-surface southerly flow.
As one might surmise, general confidence is not very high, but more
on the order of moderate for the progression(s) noted above through
Thursday afternoon. SPC Day 1 and 2 Marginal outlooks appear to
bridge this overnight/morning time frame and are in line with
current thoughts.

Active pattern continues/picks up Thursday evening through Friday
night as a leading shortwave flattens SW CONUS ridge and
stronger/deeper northern stream shortwave trough respectively move
into/across the Central Plains. This brings about higher confidence
in shower/storm activity to the area as an accompanying frontal
boundary is expected to move across the area. This too also
increases flow (and by virtue shear profiles). Trajectory of
initial/leading shortwave primarily takes an eastward path across
Nebraska-Iowa. Attendant cyclogenesis yields developing and lifting
warm front northward into Iowa, which would broadly yield limited
convective activity within the CWA (primarily in the warm sector)
through the day Friday. Currently, majority of synoptic solutions
pushes warm front somewhere in southern to central Iowa. Should the
warm front set up closer to northern Missouri, this would set that
portion of the state up for periods of showers/storms through the
day/evening, whereas much of the rest of the CWA to remain on the
dry side prior to frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday.
Said frontal boundary will be slow to get to the area as the leading
shortwave tends to slow/stall ahead of and prior to being absorbed
by the the deeper northern stream shortwave trough. Gradual frontal
passage overnight Friday into Saturday, and it being broader (not
sharply vertically stacked) appears likely to yield multiple rounds
of showers/storms. Generally nocturnal timing works against
strong/severe, however strong shear profiles and mean winds not
parallel to boundary may allow a few storms to organize and yield
near-severe to severe winds/hail. Day 3 SPC Slight too in line with
thinking at this point. Into Saturday afternoon (SPC Day 4), any
strong/severe threat will depend on how much destabilization can be
achieved ahead of the boundary, let alone if it remains within CWA
or displaced eastward by this point.

Temperatures behind cold frontal passage (aided by widespread cloud
cover) drop down into the 80s for highs Saturday, and gradually
rebound Sunday and into next week back into seasonable/seasonably
warm territory, upper 80s to low 90s. Westerly to weakly
northwesterly large scale pattern/flow settles in, including
depiction of multiple shortwave passages and shower/storm
opportunities into next week/remainder of the 7 day forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd with sct-bkn mid and
upper level clouds expected thru the pd. There is the potential
for a few light thunderstorms at STJ btn 10Z-12Z so have issued
a PROB30 for that timeframe. Winds will be out of the south btn
5-10kts til 16Z when winds will increase to 10-15kts with wind
gusts around 20kts. Winds will subside btn 23Z-00Z to 5-10kts
while remaining out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...73