Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 140416

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1116 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Issued at 403 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2018

Looking at satellite imagery this afternoon a large amplified
pattern is in place across the country, with a ridge axis poking
north across the Rockies, inducing a downstream meridional flow
across the northern and central Plains. The northerly flow across
the Plains has brought sufficient dry air south to raise fire
weather concerns across the region today, which will increase
tomorrow as the dry air mass remains in place with warmer
temperatures and possibly stronger winds expected Wednesday. More
details can be found in the --Fire Weather-- discussion below.

Wednesday into Thursday...will see a significant warm up across the
region as the meridional flow shifts east and the cool surface high
in place shift south, both of which will allow the return of
southerly winds inducing warm air and moisture advection both
Wednesday and Thursday. However, Wednesday will be very dry as
humidity from the western Gulf will likely take till Thursday to
arrive, at which point the moisture will likely be pooling along a
warm front that should park itself in northern Missouri by Thursday
afternoon. This frontal boundary will then be the focus for the
start of precipitation chances Thursday night as the nocturnal jet
ramps up and pushes an increasing amount of moisture north across
the boundary. Sufficient saturation to induce rain will likely wait
till after midnight, early Friday morning, but may start as early as
Thursday evening.

Friday on through the weekend...will see the amplified pattern
across the Nation give way to a locally flatter flow as a series
of shortwave troughs move across the California coast, flattening
the pattern across the Nations mid-section. The leading shortwave
will result in our rain Friday, with a secondary trough expected
to bring a threat of rain again Sunday night into Monday. For
Friday, available instability at the surface or aloft looks
limited enough to limit thunderstorm chance to embedded isolated
activity as the inducing shortwave trough moves through.

Otherwise, for late Friday night into Saturday morning, cooling
temperatures may be able to force a precipitation type change in
areas along and north of the Missouri River, but the better
chances are that the precipitation will shift east before it gets
that cold here, thus not a lot of wintry accumulation is expected.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with clear to
mostly clear skies. Winds will be light overnight as high pressure
moves overhead. But winds will become southerly Wednesday morning
and then become gusty out of the southwest by the afternoon hours.
Winds should diminish some around sunset but will likely persist
in the 5 to 10 kt range tomorrow night.


.Fire Weather...
Issued at 403 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2018

Wednesday will see weather conditions approach, or maybe exceed,
critical Fire Weather criteria across eastern Kansas and western

A dry surface high will slide south overnight allowing southerly
winds to return to the region by sunrise Wednesday. This will also
bring a significant warm up, with afternoon highs likely to range
through the 60s. This will allow for decent boundary layer mixing
which will result in gusty southwest winds across the region.
Currently, winds look strongest in northeast Kansas into far
northwest Missouri, though winds everywhere will likely approach
critical limits. Humidity values will likely drop well below
critical limits, with humidity values in the teens possible in areas
from northwest missouri southwest in eastern Kansas. All of this
will lead to a very high fire danger for Wednesday.

Conditions will improve a bit going into Thursday, as moisture pools
near a frontal boundary stalled across northern Missouri.




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