Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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589 FXUS65 KPUB 161132 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 532 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot today with many 100+ readings expected across the plains. - Red Flag Warnings in effect where fuels are critical. - Isolated strong storms along the KS border area later this afternoon. - Hot with critical fire weather conditions across the region on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 327 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Currently... A few isolated showers with some rumble of thunder were pushing into KS across Kiowa county. Some showers also noted over extreme southeast Baca county. Otherwise clear skies noted over the region with ambient temps still in the mid 70s across the far southeast plains at 2 Am, with mid 60s over most of the rest of the plains. Valleys were in the 40s with 30s and 40s in the mtns. Today... Main concern is the heat. With very warm air aloft advecting over the region, ambient max temps today will rise into the 100s across a good part of the plains, with the warmest temps (105ish) over the lower Ark Rvr valley from roughly La Junta to the KS border. Heat Advisories have been issued for the lower Ark Rvr valley area, along with the urban areas of COS, PUB and Canon City. Heat Advisories have also been issued for the mid ark rvr valley in Fremont county. With RH values at critical values, Red Flag conditions are expected over a good part of the region. The Forest Service just recently added a few more zones into the critical category, and have issued a Red Flag Warning for these areas. Dry lightning will be an issue in Baca county. Along the KS border, A well mixed EML along with sufficient moisture will allow for a isolated strong storms over this region. Strong gusty winds along with Dry Lightning will be a concern. Over the remainder of the region, it will be dry. It will be breezy all areas today, with the windiest conditions in the mtns and San Luis valley and along the KS border. Tonight... It is gonna be windy tonight east of the lee trough. The strongest winds with the low level jet will generally be eat of a line from KLHX to KTAD, and gusts up to 40 mph at the surface will be possible during the early morning hours. Min temps will be warm tonight with readings only reaching about 70 across teh windy areas on the plains with 60s most other regions of the plains. Valleys should see mid 40s. Any thunder near the border should end prior to midnight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 327 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Models continue to be in good agreement with low ensemble spreads through much of the extended period. The main concern will be heat and fire weather conditions Monday and possibly Tuesday. Frontal timing on Tuesday is still in question and will determine temperatures and fire weather conditions. Monday...hot temperatures are forecast to remain in place across the region, with much of the Plains in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Records will once again be close, with Colorado Springs and Pueblo within a couple of degrees. Southwesterly flow aloft increases through the afternoon and will combine with already very low humidity values to produce widespread fire weather conditions. Added a few fire weather zones to the Fire Weather Watch Monday based on the latest fuel guidance, however, even those zones that are not currently in the watch should take precautions to prevent fires given the heat, low humidities and gusty winds. At this time, have kept the forecast dry, but a few of the high-res CAM guidance does spit out a couple of isolated cells near the Kansas border late in the afternoon and into the evening. Currently thinking any development will be to the east out of our area. But if a storm does develop, strong outflow winds will be the main concern given the very dry conditions. Tuesday...fire weather conditions and temperatures will be highly dependent on the arrival of a cold front to the Plains. The NAM and a few longer range high-res solutions are fast with the front, having it arrive before noon. This would keep temperatures cooler, and moisture behind the front would limit most fire weather concerns. The GFS is by far the slowest with the front, hanging it up on the Palmer Divide through the afternoon before surging it south by late afternoon to early evening. This slower frontal passage would allow for temperatures to warm more than guidance would indicate, and allow for breezy southwest winds across the region with elevated fire weather concerns. We will continue to monitor the latest trends in frontal timing and likely make adjustments to the forecast. As for precipitation, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon across the Pikes Peak Region, and fill in behind the front along the Eastern Mountains, and spread into the Plains Tuesday night. Wednesday into Thursday...flow is forecast to turn southerly across southern Colorado for mid week, with moisture remaining in place across the region. This will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms, initially developing over the higher terrain, then spreading east across the Plains during the late afternoon and overnight. Given the abundant moisture, thunderstorms will likely be efficient rain producers and slow moving. SBCAPE values look modest and shear weak, but a couple of storms may become strong across the Plains. Temperatures will be cooler mid week with 70s and 80s. Friday through Sunday...upper level riding to our east is forecast to build westward for late week into the weekend. Embedded energy under the ridge and residual moisture will likely lead to continued shower and thunderstorm development, but coverage looks to diminish. Much will depend on track of the individual energy and what moisture remains. Temperatures will also be in the rise, with most areas into the 90s. Mozley && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 530 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. gusty south to southwest winds will be likely during the afternoon time period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-221-223>227-232-233-237. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ220-221-224>227-232-233-237. Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ077-083>086-089-093-097-098. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...HODANISH