976
FXUS63 KDLH 151937 RRA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 106 PM
CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous marine conditions today with gale force wind gusts  and
high waves across western Lake Superior. Wind and waves diminish
this afternoon and tonight.

- Additional rain chances late Wednesday/Wednesday night and  again
Friday into early Saturday. The late week system could bring an inch
or more of rainfall south of a line from near Brainerd to Moose Lake
to Bayfield.

- Near-normal high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s for  the
later half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Wednesday - Thursday:

A zonal flow pattern aloft sets up for Wednesday and Thursday.
Wednesday will be dry to start, but there is potential for some
light rain showers (10-40%) across far northern and southern
portions of the Northland Wednesday evening into early Wednesday
night as the high pressure departs to the east. An additional
surface high pressure center passing to our north Thursday should
keep that day dry.

Temperatures moderate slightly for Wednesday and Thursday with high
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s on Wednesday/Thursday, and
some mid 70s in the Brainerd Lakes to northwest Wisconsin on
Thursday. Relatively warmer lows in the 40s to low 50s (warmest near
Lake Superior) Wednesday and Thursday nights should keep any
additional frost chances at bay.

Friday - This Weekend:

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to return to
the Northland on Friday through early Saturday. Lee cyclogenesis
develops a surface low in eastern Colorado on Thursday and ejects it
through the Central Plains Thursday night/early Friday and into the
Upper Mississippi River Valley late Friday into early Saturday. The
exact track of the surface low and the northward extent of its
attendant warm front and warm sector will dictate precipitation
potential, amounts, and locations in the Northland for Friday
through early Saturday. The ECMWF EFI QPF values with this system do
show a swath of 0.5-0.6 (out of a maximum of 1) into portions of
inland northwest Wisconsin along with 90th-plus percentile PWATs
relative to NAEFS CFSR climatology, suggesting potential for an
unusually higher than normal precipitation signal from several EPS
members for this time of year. All this is to say that if the
surface warm front sets up in the ideal location just south of the
area, a low-level jet riding over to the cool side of the front
could set up a band of heavier rainfall in southern portions of the
Northland, particularly northwest Wisconsin. The WPC Day 5 Slight
Risk area also highlights this potential for heavy rainfall.
Additionally, the 13Z 9/14 run of the NBM rainfall amount
probabilities for 0.5" or greater are 50-75% south of US-2, highest
in inland NW WI, but don`t drop off much for 1" or greater with
probabilities still 40-65% for the same areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Scattered to broken stratus associated with the upper low continues
to move across the area today, with a mix of MVFR and VFR cigs. With
afternoon heating, expect cloud cover to gradually diminish with
clearing skies though the afternoon.

High pressure arrives tonight, providing clear skies and light
winds. Fog may develop early Wednesday morning, with vis as low as
LIFR. The most likely locations for vis reductions are HIB, DLH and
HYR. There is also a potential for frost, which could limit fog
development. The better chances for frost will be INL and locations
northwest of HIB. Fog will lift early, with winds remaining light
and variable through the end of the taf period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Surface low pressure over southeast Manitoba will quickly move to
near James Bay by this evening. Winds will veer westerly and perhaps
northwesterly and are expected to strengthen through late morning
into early afternoon. Gales of 35 to 45 kts begin to develop by 12Z
(7 AM CDT) and will persist through early afternoon. Winds and waves
will quickly diminish this afternoon into early evening. Small Craft
Advisories and Gale Warnings are in effect for much of today. It is
likely there will be a short period of time late Tuesday afternoon
into early evening when Small Craft Advisories will be needed after
the Gale Warnings end. Winds and waves will become light Tuesday
night and persist at 15 knots or less for Wednesday and Thursday.
Another storm system will move through the region Friday and
Saturday which will bring another period of stronger winds and
higher waves.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast. Widespread
wetting rain occurred Monday. Minimum relative humidity values will
generally stay above 45 percent through the week. After breezy west
winds today, light and variable winds are expected Wednesday as high
pressure slides across the region. Winds remain light through the
week, with scattered rain chances Wednesday night, with rainfall
totals less than one tenth of an inch. More widespread rain is
possible Friday into  Saturday.
See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown
of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
LSZ121.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein AVIATION...HA MARINE...Huyck FIRE WEATHER...HA