896
FXUS63 KDLH 061921
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
221 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable fall weather for a few days. Patchy frost is
  possible tonight, mainly for the usual inland cold spots. A
  Frost Advisory is in effect for parts of far northern MN.

- A widespread freeze is likely Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning with a Freeze Watch in effect.

- Gradually warming temperatures later this week into the
  weekend. Some rain is possible Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A mainly dry cool front drops southeastward tonight and may (20%
chance) bring light rain showers to the Minnesota Borderlands
around Midnight tonight through late tonight. Outside of those
scattered rain showers, frost is expected for the Iron Range to
Borderlands in St Louis County and westward into most of north-
central Minnesota. A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight into
Tuesday morning. Associated with the cold air advection behind
the cold frontal passage, pressure gradient winds in southern
Cook County could see gust to 30 mph from the northwest early
Tuesday morning.

A cold air mass in the low-levels lingers over the region
Tuesday and creates near to slightly-below normal mid-Fall
temperatures in the Northland. Winds decrease to light and
variable quickly Tuesday evening as surface high pressure sets
up. Prime radiational cooling conditions Tuesday night are
expected to create a fairly widespread freezing temperatures for
low temperatures into Wednesday morning. A Freeze Watch was
issued for all of the region beginning Tuesday 10 PM and lasting
until Wednesday 10 AM. The exception, if there is any, for
freezing temperatures would be within a few miles of Lake
Superior shorelines where temperatures Tuesday night could only
dip into the low to mid-30s.

One last round of frost is likely for the Arrowhead and
northern Wisconsin Wednesday night before a slightly warming
trend begins again. The warmer south-southwesterly flow for late
week brings temperatures again back into the 60s and even
low-70s for Thursday into the weekend. Some form of low pressure
lifting through the Northern Plains Sunday may (30-50% chance)
create the next round of rain chances in much of the Upper
Midwest again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Diurnal MVFR cumulus is ongoing across the region and bringing
scattered to broken ceilings at terminals. Expect these to
decrease in coverage early this evening as northwest winds
continue to back westerly. Outside of a few rain showers in the
Borderlands late tonight, a secondary dry cold frontal passage
will drop southeastward 09-15Z Tuesday and bring another period
of northwest winds tomorrow. Gusts to 20 knots are likely for
North Shore terminals Tuesday daytime.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

West winds shift back to northwesterly late tonight as a cold
air mess enters the region. Downsloping gusty winds around 25
knots from the northwest are forecast by early Tuesday morning
and linger into Tuesday mid-day. Expect a decrease in wind
speeds then through the afternoon hours. Small Craft Advisories
are in effect for Taconite Harbor northward in this time period.
High pressure overhead Tuesday night into Wednesday creates calm
winds slowly shifting to southerly.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MNZ010-011-018-019.
     Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy