Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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962 FXUS63 KDLH 312340 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate to locally heavy snow over I-35 corridor into northwest WI will shift farther eastward through this evening and weaken with time. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Twin Ports, I-35 corridor, and most of NW WI into this evening. - Wet pattern continues with a 30-60% chance of rain late Friday into early Saturday with better chances 60-80% for rain Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 503 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Synopsis... Surface low pressure developed over northern Lake Michigan this afternoon while the surface low over west-central Wisconsin filled. There is a remnant upper-level circulation centered over northwest Wisconsin per GOES-East water vapor imagery. Regional radar mosaic reveals an arcing band of snow from the North Shore to the Twin Cities. Farther east in the warm sector precipitation has begun to change to snow in the past hour. Dry air wrapping into central and north-central Wisconsin resulted in a more showery character of precipitation early this afternoon. With the redeveloping low over northern Lake Michigan, the strengthening band over the St. Croix River Valley into western Upper Michigan developed over the past few hours. Tonight... Precipitation will gradually taper off tonight over the Northland. The newer precipitation band will likely become the dominant band over the next few hours as frontogenesis increases in response to the change in mass and momentum fields with the handoff from the east-central Wisconsin low pressure area to the low centered over northern Lake Michigan. Snowfall rates of a quarter to half an inch per hour are expected for the next several hours at least. The remnant upper-low will slowly move east-northeastward this evening and will likely continue to produce precipitation as it departs, although intensity will lessen with time. Look for another 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation through this evening tapering off to light snow and flurries by midnight. Friday through Sunday night... A brief lull in precipitation chances is forecast Friday as high pressure builds into the region. The fresh snow accumulation will limit diurnal heating to start November. Highs will be in the low to middle 40s. By Friday afternoon and evening, a southerly low-level jet will develop ushering in warm air advection aloft. Frontogenesis will develop on the leading edge of the jet and support a chance of rain showers from late Friday through Saturday morning. With the persistent warm air advection, look for temps on Saturday to trend a few degrees warmer. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Another surge of moisture will move into the Northland Sunday with an approaching upper-level trough. Rain chances increase once again and will persist through Sunday night. Highs for Sunday will reach the upper 40s to middle 50s. Monday through next Thursday... Precipitation chances will persist Monday through Tuesday night. Temperatures will warm up again on Monday as a weak area of low pressure moves northeast across the Northland. Temperatures will be in the low 50s in Minnesota and 50s to low 60s over northwest Wisconsin. Colder air returns for Tuesday through Thursday as winds turn northwesterly. A period of drier conditions are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the 40s during the period. Another small chance of precip appears for Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Area radars and satellite showed improving conditions across eastern Minnesota with snow or a rain/snow mix continuing over northwest Wisconsin with conditions at or lower than IFR. As low pressure departs tonight, conditions for all areas will improve to VFR with VFR then expected for most through the rest of the period. The gusty northerly winds will subside overnight as pressure gradient weakens with high pressure briefly moving through. Chances for precipitation, including a wintry mix, will return to the Northland Friday night. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 503 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Northeast winds and gusts have decreased this afternoon and we allowed the Gale Warnings to expire. Small Craft Advisories were expanded to cover the areas previously under Gale Warnings and the concern for smaller vessels persists through early Friday morning. Wind speeds, gusts, and wave heights will gradually subside as low pressure departs the area. Look for rain, possibly mixed with or changing to snow, which could reduce visibility below 1 mile this evening. Hazardous conditions are not expected over the weekend. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037-038. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>004-006>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ121-148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>147. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Melde MARINE...Huyck