765
FXUS63 KDLH 160520
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous marine conditions continue this afternoon across
  western Lake Superior, before wind and waves diminish this
  evening and tonight.

- Additional rain chances Wednesday evening/Wednesday night and
  again Friday into early Saturday. The late week system could
  bring an inch or more of rainfall south of a line from near
  Brainerd to Duluth to Bayfield.

- Near-normal high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s for
  the later half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Tonight:

Vertically stacked low system is moving toward Hudson`s Bay this
afternoon, with some wrap around moisture maintaining scattered
to broken skies across the Northland today. Cannot completely
rule out a passing light shower or sprinkles, but chances are
too low to mention at any given location. For tonight, high
pressure arrives from the west, and daytime, breezy winds will
diminish. With clearing skies and light winds, temperatures will
cool into the upper 30s for most locations north of the Iron
Range and across the Arrowhead. Low to mid 40s are expected
elsewhere, with upper 40s along the shore line. With this
cooling, frost is possible across portions of the area, with the
most likely area for these impacts being Koochiching County. A
frost advisory has been issued. Further south and east, there is
a better chance of fog which would prevent frost from becoming
more widespread.

Wednesday - Thursday:

Surface high pressure will quickly slide to the east tomorrow,
with zonal flow aloft. A weak shortwave will bring a chance of
isolated to scattered showers to the area late tomorrow
afternoon into the overnight period. Rainfall amounts will be
light, maybe a tenth of an inch. Dry conditions return for
Thursday, with temperatures continuing to moderate. Highs will
be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows will also be
warmer, both Wednesday night and Thursday night, with
temperatures remaining above 40F both nights.

Friday - This Weekend:

Another, more widespread, rain event is expect for Friday into
Saturday. A system will move out of the Rockies with a surface
low strengthening over the central Plains and pushing toward the
mid Mississippi River Valley. A warm front will move northward,
pushing up against dry air pushing southward from east central
Canada. Current guidance suggest the warm front will remain to
our south, with strong low level jet riding over the warm front,
bringing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall to southern
portions of the Northland, mainly Burnett county eastward. The
WPC Day 4 Slight Risk area highlights this potential for heavy
rainfall. The 19Z 9/14 run of the NBM rainfall amount
probabilities have trended southward with the chances for more
than 0.5" of rainfall, with a 30-40% chance from Pine County
eastward.

Drier conditions are expected for Saturday and Sunday, under
northwesterly upper level flow, with rain chances return early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

High pressure is gradually building into the area, providing
clear skies and light winds. Fog is beginning to develop, with
intermittent MVFR/IFR visibilities so far. Conditions will
slowly deteriorate, with potential for LIFR visibilities
possible for KHIB and KBRD, with IFR/MVFR elsewhere. Fog will
lift early Wednesday morning, with winds remaining light and
variable through the end of the taf period. An area of showers
moving in from the west will bring increasing VFR cloud cover
with VCSH groups after 00z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

West to northwest winds remain gusty this afternoon over
western Lake Superior, with current gusts to 35kts. Winds will
gradually diminish through the evening, as high pressure builds
into the area. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings remain
in effect, and will likely need Small Craft Advisories for a
short period this afternoon and early evening after the Gale
Warnings end. Winds will persist at 15 knots or less Wednesday
and Thursday. Another storm system will move through the region
Friday and Saturday which will bring another period of stronger
winds and higher waves.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast.
Widespread wetting rain occurred Monday. Minimum relative
humidity values will generally stay above 45 percent through the
week. After breezy west winds today, light and variable winds
are expected Wednesday as high pressure slides across the
region. Winds remain light through the week, with scattered
rain chances Wednesday night, with rainfall totals less than one
tenth of an inch. More widespread rain is possible Friday into
Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA