534
FXUS63 KDLH 291929
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
229 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of rain showers push east and diminish through this evening.

- Next best chance for some light rain Saturday with scattered
showers.

- Temperatures peak Wednesday with highs in the mid to high 70s
  and then cooler conditions return. Multiple night with
  frost/freeze potential return Thursday night and through early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A line of rain showers continues to traipse across the Northland
this afternoon, bringing light to moderate steady rainfall to much
of the area. This line of showers is connected to a much larger
synoptic system dragging moisture from the Desert Southwest to Lake
Superior, but we are in the weakest part of this disturbance and
expect the rain to diminish as it moves east through this evening.
Expect additional accumulations of a couple hundredths to a couple
tenths.

Once today`s rain moves out, a broad upper level trough settles over
the northern portion of the CONUS, blocking the Northland from much
of the weather going on to our south. This will come along with
lower dewpoints and fall like temperatures for the latter half of
the week. Before that, Wednesday will be on the warm side with highs
reaching into the mid to high 70s, but then highs in the 50s and 60s
return Thursday and into the weekend. As we end up on the receiving
end of CAA with northwesterly flow, we`ll see the potential for
frost/freeze concerns return. The first main risk looks to arrive
Thursday night into Friday morning, with nightly frost chances
continuing through early next week. Another widespread freeze could
be possible Sunday night into Monday.

A weak shortwave on the backside of high pressure sweeps across the
area Saturday and could bring some scattered light showers. Not
expecting much out of this system, but some areas could see 0.25-
0.5" if some more robust showers move over the same area multiple
times.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings are steadily spreading across the region early
this afternoon, along with an area of rain showers. This should
continue to push east, affecting all terminals by this evening.
Areas of fog may develop overnight, dropping visibilities to IFR to
LIFR levels. Expect improvement to all VFR through Wednesday
morning. Breezy south to southwesterly winds will continue through
the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Southwesterly winds continue across the Lake through Wednesday, with
gusts around 20 knots possible through that time period in the far
reaches of the North Shore closest to Grand Portage. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect through this evening for that area, and
another Small Craft Advisory may be needed Wednesday afternoon.
Winds switch to become more northwesterly Thursday into the end of
the week, with some gusts up to 20 knots possible, most likely along
the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Following today`s rain showers, drier air will move into the area
through the week. Afternoon relative humidity will likely fall into
the 30-45% range Thursday and Friday. Some scattered showers could
bring some light rain Saturday. Some gustier winds are possible
Thursday from the northwest.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens
FIRE WEATHER...Levens