Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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962
FXUS63 KDLH 312340
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
640 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to locally heavy snow over I-35 corridor into
  northwest WI will shift farther eastward through this evening
  and weaken with time. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect
  for the Twin Ports, I-35 corridor, and most of NW WI into this
  evening.

- Wet pattern continues with a 30-60% chance of rain late Friday
  into early Saturday with better chances 60-80% for rain Sunday
  through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 503 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Synopsis...

Surface low pressure developed over northern Lake Michigan this
afternoon while the surface low over west-central Wisconsin
filled. There is a remnant upper-level circulation centered over
northwest Wisconsin per GOES-East water vapor imagery. Regional
radar mosaic reveals an arcing band of snow from the North
Shore to the Twin Cities. Farther east in the warm sector
precipitation has begun to change to snow in the past hour. Dry
air wrapping into central and north-central Wisconsin resulted
in a more showery character of precipitation early this
afternoon. With the redeveloping low over northern Lake
Michigan, the strengthening band over the St. Croix River Valley
into western Upper Michigan developed over the past few hours.

Tonight...

Precipitation will gradually taper off tonight over the
Northland. The newer precipitation band will likely become the
dominant band over the next few hours as frontogenesis increases
in response to the change in mass and momentum fields with the
handoff from the east-central Wisconsin low pressure area to the
low centered over northern Lake Michigan. Snowfall rates of a
quarter to half an inch per hour are expected for the next
several hours at least.

The remnant upper-low will slowly move east-northeastward this
evening and will likely continue to produce precipitation as it
departs, although intensity will lessen with time. Look for
another 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation through this evening
tapering off to light snow and flurries by midnight.


Friday through Sunday night...

A brief lull in precipitation chances is forecast Friday as
high pressure builds into the region. The fresh snow
accumulation will limit diurnal heating to start November. Highs
will be in the low to middle 40s. By Friday afternoon and
evening, a southerly low-level jet will develop ushering in warm
air advection aloft. Frontogenesis will develop on the leading
edge of the jet and support a chance of rain showers from late
Friday through Saturday morning.

With the persistent warm air advection, look for temps on
Saturday to trend a few degrees warmer. Highs will be in the
upper 40s to low 50s. Another surge of moisture will move into
the Northland Sunday with an approaching upper-level trough.
Rain chances increase once again and will persist through Sunday
night. Highs for Sunday will reach the upper 40s to middle 50s.

Monday through next Thursday...

Precipitation chances will persist Monday through Tuesday
night. Temperatures will warm up again on Monday as a weak area
of low pressure moves northeast across the Northland.
Temperatures will be in the low 50s in Minnesota and 50s to low
60s over northwest Wisconsin.

Colder air returns for Tuesday through Thursday as winds turn
northwesterly. A period of drier conditions are expected
Tuesday night and Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the
40s during the period. Another small chance of precip appears
for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Area radars and satellite showed improving conditions across
eastern Minnesota with snow or a rain/snow mix continuing over
northwest Wisconsin with conditions at or lower than IFR. As
low pressure departs tonight, conditions for all areas will
improve to VFR with VFR then expected for most through the rest
of the period. The gusty northerly winds will subside overnight
as pressure gradient weakens with high pressure briefly moving
through. Chances for precipitation, including a wintry mix, will
return to the Northland Friday night.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 503 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Northeast winds and gusts have decreased this afternoon and we
allowed the Gale Warnings to expire. Small Craft Advisories were
expanded to cover the areas previously under Gale Warnings and
the concern for smaller vessels persists through early Friday
morning. Wind speeds, gusts, and wave heights will gradually
subside as low pressure departs the area. Look for rain,
possibly mixed with or changing to snow, which could reduce
visibility below 1 mile this evening.

Hazardous conditions are not expected over the weekend.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037-038.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001>004-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ121-148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Huyck