723
FXUS63 KFGF 231555
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1055 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures today, followed by near
  average temperatures this weekend into next week.

- There is a medium chance for scattered weak thunderstorms
  Friday afternoon. Main hazard would be lightning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Overall the forecast remains on track as described below.

Winds are steadily increasing out of the southeast with gusts
to 30 mph starting to be reported in the southern Red River
Valley. Winds will continue to increase out of the southeast,
with gusts nearing 40 mph liable to occur mid to late afternoon
within the Red River Valley.

Winds stay elevated overnight, but not as strong as they will
be this afternoon. Temperatures also stay quite mild in the
upper 50s into the 60s overnight, well above average for this
time of year.

Showers and weak thunderstorms in eastern SD and southwest MN
will continue working their way north-northeast. These are still
expected to move into portions of our area by this afternoon,
with areas in Minnesota holding relatively higher chance for
seeing lightning activity. Very little rain amounts will result
from this, with those that see thunderstorms seeing at most half
an inch.

Strong cold front still expected to move through late overnight
tonight into Saturday morning, shifting and increasing winds
out of the west. There is a medium to high chance for advisory-
level winds in Devils Lake basin and western edge of the Red
River Valley Saturday morning into early afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...Synopsis...

Blocked upper ridging remains over the central CONUS, with upper
troughing over the West Coast. This upper ridging is driving
well above average temperatures in the 70s currently over the
region. Weak embedded impulse moving through the flow is
utilizing weak instability aloft, helping spark scattered
rain/virga showers in northeast ND and northwest MN this
afternoon into evening. Dry air in the lower levels will prevent
much of this precipitation from reaching the ground, thus added
sprinkles to the forecast to account for this.

On Friday, well above average temperatures will occur once more
with widespread 70s forecast during the day. While temperatures
will be mild, gusty southerly winds 20-40 mph will also build
starting Friday by late morning, lasting through the day.

Upper trough in the West will attempt to break eastward,
although all guidance suggests this will occur in a split-flow-
like regime, with the northern branch of the upper trough in
northern CONUS and Canada separating from the southern branch
lingering in the Southwest. As it does this, it brings
sufficient moisture and lift to bring scattered showers Friday
afternoon into evening. Most guidance also indicates at
sufficient instability aloft to bring lightning/thunderstorms
into the conversation. A lack of better instability, moisture,
and wind shear spacing will mitigate how strong thunderstorms
will be - likely keeping storms weak.

Strong cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday
driven by the northern branch of the upper trough. This ends our
well above average temperatures, with most locations seeing
daily high temperatures Saturday occur just ahead of this cold
front, occurring early morning Saturday.

This strong cold front will also bring additional round of gusty
winds - this time out of the west. Winds have a medium to high
chance in reaching advisory-criteria (ie sustained 30-40 mph,
gusts 45-55 mph) in eastern ND west of the Red River Valley,
with slightly lower but still gusty winds elsewhere.

Temperatures turn more average with highs in the 40s and 50s
with lows around freezing next week. An additional chance for
light rain comes around Monday, but confidence is low in this
due to disagreement in modeled guidance regarding whether or
not sufficient forcing for ascent will spread into our region.
At this time, light snow looks unlikely, but cannot be
completely ruled out should forcing for ascent move through
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 705 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Will have increasing high and mid clouds going thru today.
South-southeast winds increase and will become gusty this
afternoon with gusts over 30 kts likely mid afternoon thru mid
evening. Low level jet over the area this evening with a
south jet of around 45-50 kts at 2000 ft agl focused in
Minnesota. Wind shift to the southwest and then west very late
tonight into Devils Lake basin.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Riddle