204
FXUS63 KFGF 172341
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
641 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain tonight with another round Monday night
  bringing a two day total of a quarter to half inch for nearly
  all areas.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Severe potential continues to dwindle in our southeast
(Wilkin, Grant, Ottertail, Wadena counties) with a small hail
threat the main concern as of now through about 10-11pm. Could
see some hail up to dime size but even that feels like a
stretch. IN OTHER NEWS ITS RAINING. For the first time since mid
to late April for most we are seeing rain totals over a quarter
inch which should immensely help to put a damper on blowing dust
and fire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...Synopsis...

Severe convection potential looks to remain mainly in west-
central Minnesota this afternoon/evening as model guidance
continues to prog the main surface-based instability barely
approaching southern Grant County. Elevated instability remains
expected to ascend north of the warm front this afternoon,
bringing the potential for elevated showers and thunderstorms
across southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Areas
that see storms through the evening will have the potential to
see rainfall exceed 1 inch. Elsewhere, generally expect rainfall
totals between a quarter inch to half inch. For severe
convection potential, see the severe section below.

Rainfall should exit the region late this evening/early tomorrow
morning giving a brief break from precipitation before the main
upper trough ejects over the intermountain west. As this trough
ejects, it looks increasingly likely that a swath of
precipitation will dump a broad swath of at least a quarter of
an inch of precipitation. Unfortunately, there looks like there
will be a region between where rain falls today and where rain
falls tomorrow that could see very limited rainfall amounts,
which may exacerbate ongoing dryness. Instability will be well
cut off tomorrow so severe thunderstorms and thunderstorms are
not expected to develop.

The remainder of the period will be characterized by relatively
cool temperatures through midweek with frost/freeze potential
Wednesday morning. Drier conditions will also return but with
flow aloft being relatively weak, the probability for red flag
conditions is low.

...SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY...

Surface analysis this afternoon shows the warm front roughly
situated just north of Sioux Falls. This has allowed intense
isentropic ascent over our area, bringing some solid moisture
content to the region. This warm front remains expected to
propagate northward this afternoon and bringing surface moisture
with it. CAM guidance continues to generally prog the surface
instability south of our CWA, barely scraping Grant County. Per
HREF probabilities, there is only a 10% chance to even see 500
J/kg of SCAPE. MUCAPE also is very closely attached to this warm
front and shares similar probabilities as a result. Having said
that, shear associated with the front is rather strong,
approaching 50+ knots. There will be a brief window this evening
(likely at most 1-2 hours) wherein severe convection may impact
our west-central Minnesota counties. Any severe convection will
most likely be hail as storms are likely to be elevated as storm
relative winds in the 0-2km layer are most likely to be due
easterly, so it will be difficult to ingest warmer air to the
south. If surface-based convection arises, tornadoes can`t be
ruled out but again this is very unlikely at this time and would
require very strong propagation northward in the warm front. The
window of severe thunderstorms ends roughly close to midnight at
the latest, but should generally be out of the area by 8-10 PM
CDT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Sites Are all MVFR to VFR and those that are still VFR will fall
to MVFR by 02z. Rain is only locally driving visibility impacts
to 2-5sm otherwise generally P6SM. CIGs will slowly fall tonight
area wide to 500 to 1500ft with DVL having at least a 20%
chance to fall into IFR below 500ft. Winds while locally gusting
up to 15kts currently will die off tonight becoming northerly at
5-10kts through the remainder of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...TT