635
FXUS63 KFGF 220551
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1151 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impacts to holiday travel as early as Tuesday with a 40%
  chance for minor (advisory type) winter impacts

- A colder, more winter-like pattern persists through the end
  of the month as we remain more active into December.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1151 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Still not much immediately upstream as precip has remained over
central portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. CAMs still have
some light radar returns entering far north counties after 08Z
as the shortwave begins to dig southwest. Less impressed with
any impacts occuring, but will continue to keep some low POPs in
northwestern MN.

UPDATE
Issued at 942 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

CAMs a bit slower on bringing any precip into our northern
counties, which fits the obs over Saskatchewan so far. Slowed
down the POPs coming in tonight until after midnight. HREF still
has low probs of rain, freezing rain, and snow, which fits
model soundings. Thus, kept the drizzle/FZDZ/snow mention we had
going. Impacts at this point still seem minimal.

UPDATE
Issued at 642 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Adjusted cloud cover for the current satellite trends, with some
clouds lingering in western MN and higher clouds starting to
come in from the west. Shortwave that will clip our northeastern
counties after midnight still out over Alberta. So far what
seems to be reaching the Saskatchewan is some light FZRA/DZ and
snow, but all well north of Saskatoon and remains to be seen how
much makes it into our area. See little reason to make changes
to what the day shift has at this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...Synopsis...

Zonal flow across the northern plains and SW in the southern US
along with a stalled upper low off the coast of southern California
with bring multiple chances for precip to the region of varying
intensity in the coming days. The first system will arrive tonight in
the form a weak clipper type with minimal moisture and low impact
potential for northern tier counties. The next feature of interest
will be a second northern stream wave coming form the southern
Canadian Rockies and likely interacting with the ejecting upper low
around the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. This second system will be
the main focus of the forecast with its potential to impact
Thanksgiving holiday travel plans.

- Tonight

A subtle shortwave currently noted in water vapor imagery in the BC
rockies will quickly move east tonight amid 75kt 500mb flow with
PWAT around 0.60" and weak temperature advection across the
international border area beginning after midnight. The primary
inhibiting factor will be low level dry air on the southern periphery
of the low via surface high pressure currently near Sioux Falls, SD.
Overall there is low confidence in much more than a few sprinkles
but given the thermodynamic profiles and lack of saturation into the
DGZ at times there is the possibility for drizzle and even freezing
drizzle should surface temperatures be cold enough to support it. If
this threat were to materialize it would likely be handled with an
SPS rather than a winter weather advisory.

- Holiday Travel Impacts

A complex interaction between a northern stream wave with some
influence from an ejecting upper low currently located off the
southern California coast will lead to holiday travel impacts with a
combination of initial rain at the onset of the event Tuesday
changing to snow later in the day and lasting into wednesday as
winds pick up on the backside of the then departing system. Overall
the thought of the waves interacting is well agreed upon but thats
about where synoptic confidence ends as timing and location of this
interaction is still poorly agreed upon by global ensembles and
subsequent cluster or so called scenarios they depict. A general
floor of impacts seems to be a couple tenths of an inch of snow from
Valley City to Park Rapids and south and maybe 1-2" of snow in the
north of there with areas that continue to have falling snow on
Wednesday seeing the best chance for blowing snow impacts.
Conversely a higher end type evolution might bring a more slow moving
deepening low to the region which would yield higher snow amounts more
in the advisory to low end warning territory and a strong post-low
pressure gradient with winds upwards of 30-40mph and poor visibility
from blowing snow on Wednesday. There really is not confidence in
favoring one end of the spectrum over the other and as such readers
should continue to closely monitor the forecast for how it may
impact any holiday travel plans.

- Is winter here to stay?

Maybe? At least through the first part of December that is. This
weekend into early next week (until it begins to rain and snow on
Tuesday) will most definitely be the last we see of any 40s and 50s
for at least the next 2 weeks. Highs will frequently only reach the
20s and even 10s at times from mid next week through the first week
of December with lows frequently reaching the single digits. A more
active pattern of western troughing and riding in the Gulf of
Alaska will mean NW across the Canadian Rockies which keeps us
(the northern plains) squarely in the crosshairs for arctic
intrusions and clipper type systems. There is some signal for a
more colorado low type pattern to persist from near thanksgiving
into the first few days of December which would yield more
variable temperatures and higher chances for impactful snow/rain
but teleconnections (-AO, +GBI, and -PNA) all seem to
contradict the potential for that to play out with drier but
colder weather favored.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

All sites VFR with mostly mid and high clouds lingering over the
area. Southeast winds in the 5 to 10 kt range will shift to the
southwest and then west to northwest overnight. Models are less
pessimistic with bringing in some MVFR ceilings for the MN
airports, so backed off a bit although kept some MVFR conditions
at KBJI for a while this morning. Conditions should return to
VFR by tomorrow afternoon for all sites with northwest winds
picking up and gusting above 20 kts at times.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR