597
FXUS63 KFGF 281155
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
655 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance for strong thunderstorms next Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Fog has behaved, with one area of fog around Bemidji, Waskiskh
to Roseau and Warroad, Baudette. The other main area has been
slowly spreading north into west central MN and has moved into
Elbow Lake and nearby Alexandria. Both areas highlighted in
grids and info on social media. Mid morning fog will burn off
despite near calm winds at the surface, but sun is above the low
laying fog layer. Latest runs of the HRRR and 06z NAMnest
continues to show isold shower/t-storm development 23z or so
around Park Rapids, DTL, Wadena. That area is highlighted with a
20 pop for now and no need to alter.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...Synopsis...

Very weak surface flow over the area. Main 500 mb short wave and
cooler air well to our east. Weak wind shift from southwest to
north-northeast looks to run from near Eau Claire WI nordthwest
to in between Fargo and Grand Forks. This may play a role HRRR
and other CAMs indicate in setting up where a few showers or
t-storms will form in an area of weak instability central MN
after 22z today. HRRR and 00z NAMnest indicate some activity
forming near DTL-Wadena late aftn/eve and eventualy southeast
from there. Weak instability with sfc CAPE 500-700 j/kg. This
axis of weak instability looks to remain in place in similar
area on Friday. Thus forecast grids have a slight pop in far
southeast cwa late teoday into this evening and on Friday.
Friday pops were leaned toward continuity, what was already in
there vs later today/evening a mix of HRRR, conshort and leaned
toward a cap at 20 pop for now. Conshort pops were more like 40
Wadena area.

Otherwise got some patchy fog to start the day mainly around
Warroad, Roseau and Red Lakes. So made sure to mention some
there. and also around Eblow Lake, Wadena as north edge of fog
is trying to creep north from SW MN.

Light winds today and Friday with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s.

Labor Day weekend (Sat-Mon) indicates about the same ideas as
was shown the past few days in that upper level low in western
or central SD and higher chances for any precip in South Dakota.
North edge of some pops into far southern ND and parts of west
central MN and more clouds in this area and highs in the 70s.
More sun farther north and north of Fargo highs low 80s
Saturday-Sunday. A bit of an expansion in 20 pops northward
Monday afternoon.

...There is a low chance for strong thunderstorms next
Tuesday...

Cold front looks to track southeast into the area Tuesday giving
a 30-50 pct chance of showers and t-storms. Severe wx looks very
unlikely but a strong storm or two possible....though chances
for having more than 1000 j/kg sfc cape along with 30 kts or
more of 0-6 km bulk shear Tuesday is less than 20 pct.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Patchy ground fog around, though for TAF sites mainly affecting
BJI which has seen vsbys from P6SM to 1/4SM. Likely a few other
sites go into 3-5SM range here but it will be gone by 14z. Light
winds today, mainly north or northeast northern areas, with
southerly Fargo. All areas under 10 kts. Expectation is for a
pretty sunny day, some aftn mid level CU in parts of MN namely
south of Bemidji where isold shower/t-storm may develop around
23z.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle