481
FXUS64 KSJT 040519
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1219 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional showers expected this evening before tapering off
  overnight. Localized heavy rainfall is possible, primarily
  across the northwest Hill Country.

- Below normal temperatures expected through the weekend, with a
  slow warming trend through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A broad band of light to moderate rainfall is observed on radar
along the I-10 corridor as of 1 PM CDT. This activity stretches
from southwest of Ozona to Brownwood, and models continue this
activity until mid afternoon. Rainfall totals are likely to be
around a 0.25" to 0.75" of additional rainfall. We remain under a
Marginal Risk (5 to 15% chance) of excessive rainfall leading to
flash flooding. Otherwise, the cooler temperatures will continue
for the remainder of today. Slightly warmer highs in the mid 70s
to lower 80s is forecast for tomorrow. Additional scattered rain
showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible on Sunday.
However, minimal impact is expected with this activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A drier and warmer period of weather is expected for the next
week or so. High temperatures will return to the mid 80s (I-10
corridor) and lower 90s (Big Country) by mid week. Long range models
diverge a bit for the end of next week with some models
developing an area of low pressure over Texas. Too much
uncertainty exists to incorporate any significant changes to the
forecast at this point. A weakened ridge off to the west may be
just enough to support some isolated rain showers or thunderstorm
by Thursday or Friday of next week. Chances remain very low at
20%, however.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings will settle in across all terminals through
much of this morning, with the potential for a few sites to
experience some LIFR ceilings this morning. There could be some
reduction in visibility with the lowest ceilings, especially at
the terminals that see showers redevelop over them this morning.
There is potential for a brief reprieve from MVFR to IFR
conditions later today, where some terminals (KABI, KSJT, and
KSOA) can improve to VFR to MVFR conditions this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     79  62  83  59 /  30   0   0   0
San Angelo  79  62  81  57 /  20  10   0   0
Junction    78  62  80  57 /  60  10   0   0
Brownwood   79  62  83  57 /  40  10   0   0
Sweetwater  79  61  83  60 /  10  10   0   0
Ozona       77  61  79  58 /  20  10   0   0
Brady       76  61  79  56 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...TP